Small Craft Advisory 24, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...Powerful Hurricane Michael Will Continue to Bring Dangerous and
Life-Threatening Conditions To The Area This Evening...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As noted in our most recent Hurricane Local Statement, powerful
Hurricane Michael remains a serious threat over southeast Alabama
and southwest Georgia! Hurricane force winds are likely across
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia as the center of Michael
passes through these areas this evening. This will cause numerous
power outages due to falling trees and powerlines. Trees falling
on homes will become a dangerous and potentially deadly situation!
Now is the time to shelter in place in an interior room away from
windows at the lowest level possible.

Elsewhere across the Panhandle and Big Bend, where winds and rain
have started to diminished, the threat is not over! Tropical
storm force wind gusts are likely to continue for the next several
hours particularly along the coastal interface. Remain in a safe
place and do not try to enter evacuated areas until officials have
given the all clear to return.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

In the wake of the departing hurricane, Thursday will be hot and
very humid with heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially
over the Florida zones. This will be very uncomfortable
particularly for those residents who are without power due to
Hurricane Michael. Some relief will arrive Thursday night and
Friday as a the first cold front of this fall season sweeps
through the region. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 80s to
around 90 with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s
northwest to mid 80s southeast. Lows Thursday night will range
from the mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid
October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For
Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to
uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside
between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure
nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture
to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower
activity during this period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

Dangerous conditions continue in the vicinity and wake of
Hurricane Michael. As Michael continues to pull away, widespread
MVFR stratus is expected to develop and linger, particularly
across our eastern aerodromes (KABY/KVLD). Ceilings expected to
lift tomorrow as slightly drier advects in from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

Dangerous Hurricane Michael continues to move inland over the
panhandle and will produce very hazardous conditions over the
coastal waters through tonight. Conditions will improve Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hurricane Michael will continue to push into southeastern Georgia
and weaken as it moves to the Carolinas Thursday and off the mid
Atlantic coast Friday. A breezy and moist southerly flow will keep
a chance of showers and slight chance of storms in the forecast
through Thursday, then a weak frontal trough will bring drying to
northern and central sections into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch
amounts are possible along the track of Michael as it
continues into southeastern Georgia.

At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the
Chipola, Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers.
Despite current river conditions below normal levels, with the
forecast rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above
flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  89  59  82  55 / 100  20  10   0   0
Panama City   74  89  61  81  60 /  70  20  10   0   0
Dothan        73  86  54  78  54 / 100  20   0   0   0
Albany        73  87  55  79  54 / 100  50  10   0   0
Valdosta      76  88  60  82  55 / 100  30  10   0   0
Cross City    78  90  65  86  57 /  90  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  77  87  64  81  60 /  70  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-
     Madison.

GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-
     Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Lanier-Lowndes.

AL...Hurricane Warning for Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee.

GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

Ulrich/Peterson/Enyedi

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