Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
144 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Widespread TSRA/+TSRA near all terminal through this evening.
Conditions will deteriorate around these storms to IFR/LIFR with
strong gusty winds in the vicinity. Outside of storm influence
conditions will range from MVFR to VFR with WNW winds under 10
kts. There is also a slight possibility for some patchy fog late
tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1000 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Active weather will return to the region today as a weak surface
front moves through the region. A moist boundary layer remains in
place across the region and the atmosphere will quickly become
unstable later this morning as strong surface heating occurs. As a
result, CAPE values ranging between 2000-3000 J/Kg will be common
across the region this afternoon. This, coupled with forcing from
the aforementioned surface front will yield widespread thunderstorm
activity by early afternoon across the region. A weak lobe of
vorticity will advect into the region around the upper trough in
place over the eastern third of the CONUS late this morning/early
this afternoon, yielding a slight increase in mid level shear. As a
result, a few storms that develop this afternoon will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts and small hail through the early
evening hours. Thunderstorm activity will wane with the loss of
daytime heating. Afternoon highs will rise into the upper 80s to low
90s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

In the upper levels a trough extends from Virginia to Florida. A
ridge is centered over Texas. At the surface a low will be near
Virginia. A weak cold front will approach the region on Sunday and
move through Sunday night into Monday morning. This surface boundary
will increase shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night. Forecast POPs are 40 to 60 percent for most
locations in the afternoon/evening on Sunday. POPs will remain
elevated at 30 to 40 percent after dark. A few strong to severe
storms are possible since instability is forecast to be very high
with CAPE 3000 to 4000 J/KG on Sunday. SPC has a marginal risk for
severe for most of the region.

By Monday morning most of the activity will be moving out as the
front moves through. Some showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible in parts of Big Bend Florida. By Monday afternoon high
pressure will be moving into the region. Highs will be in the lower
90s on Sunday and near 90 on Monday. The heat index will be near 100
degrees on Sunday. Drier air will move in on Monday bringing some
relief from the humidity. It will still be hot though.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

A trough will be over the region until a ridge builds in on
Friday. At the surface weak high pressure will be in place until a
low with possibly a weak cold front approaches Wednesday into
Thursday. POPs will be fairly low this week. The best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
afternoons with POPs of 20 to 30 percent. Lows will be in the 60s
or near 70. Highs will be near 90.

.MARINE...

Westerly or southwesterly winds will be a little stronger this
weekend around 15 to 20 knots at times. On Monday winds will become
northwesterly as a weak cold front moves through. Seas will be 2 to
4 feet this weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected through much of the next week.
Elevated chances for wetting rains will exist today and again on
Sunday before a drier pattern sets up for next week.

.HYDROLOGY...

Most local rivers are steady or falling. Except for the
Withlacoochee River and the Suwannee River which are gradually
rising. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested and is
gradually falling.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast this weekend. Then
a drier weather pattern will be in place next week. Forecast rain
totals are one inch or less over the next seven days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  96  74  93  65 /  20  40  40  10   0
Panama City   77  88  75  87  69 /  20  30  40  10   0
Dothan        73  94  71  88  63 /  20  60  40   0   0
Albany        73  94  72  89  63 /  20  50  40   0   0
Valdosta      73  94  73  90  64 /  20  40  40  10   0
Cross City    75  91  76  89  67 /  20  30  30  30  10
Apalachicola  77  87  76  87  70 /  20  30  30  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Pullin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOULTRIE                31.18N 83.79W
06/02/2018                   COLQUITT           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITHIN
            THE CITY OF MOULTRIE.

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

FLZ017>019-027-028-118-127-128-022015-
Inland Taylor FL-Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Jefferson FL-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
Leon FL-
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WAKULLA...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHEASTERN LEON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Woodville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marks, Woodville, Crawfordville, Tallahassee, Wakulla, Ralford
Greenway, Newport, Cody, Shadeville, Hells Half Acre, Ebb, Wakulla
Springs, Lamont, Eridu, Cabbage Grove, Thomas City, Scanlon, Chaires,
Waukeenah and Wacissa.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
Big Bend of Florida.

LAT...LON 3002 8385 3012 8408 3009 8428 3020 8435
      3052 8413 3037 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 295DEG 23KT 3038 8417

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENWOOD               30.87N 85.16W
06/02/2018                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE GREENWOOD AREA.

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

FLZ018-019-GAZ159-160-022000-
Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-Brooks GA-Lowndes GA-
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
MADISON...SOUTHERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHERN BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
I-75 At Exit 16, or 7 miles southwest of Valdosta, moving east at 35
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Madison, Lake Park, Quitman, Valdosta, I-75 At Exit 16,
Remerton, Dasher, Greenville, Lee, Dills, Hamburg, Pinetta, Lovett,
Nankin, Casa Blanco, Empress, Clyattville, Hanson and I-75 At Exit
11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
Big Bend of Florida...and south central Georgia.

LAT...LON 3080 8310 3077 8314 3063 8314 3063 8329
      3062 8327 3059 8326 3055 8326 3052 8324
      3047 8324 3046 8322 3042 8322 3041 8319
      3039 8317 3037 8319 3035 8319 3035 8321
      3033 8321 3052 8391 3091 8346 3084 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 291DEG 31KT 3080 8338

55-SCHOLL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
223 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

ALZ065-022030-
Coffee AL-
223 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 222 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elba, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Lee, Pine Level, Richburg, Curtis,
Carl Folsom A/p, Danleys Crossroads, Ino, Zoar, Camp Humming Hills,
Newby, Clintonville, Wise Mill, New Haven, Tabernacle, Basin and
Woodland Grove Church.

LAT...LON 3150 8619 3153 8617 3153 8616 3154 8616
      3154 8614 3157 8614 3159 8613 3144 8584
      3125 8608 3138 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 294DEG 23KT 3149 8612

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LENOX                   31.28N 83.47W
06/02/2018                   COOK               GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AROUND LENOX.

&&

RH