Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
259 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer high pressure over the Atlantic shifting west slightly
will keep southwesterly flow throughout the column, and in turn
PW values elevated as moisture is guided in from the gulf. Some
higher Surface Based CAPE today via the 12Z TAE sounding, compared
to 24 hours prior almost up 1k, along with PW values of 1.78
inches should result in a bit more coverage this evening as
afternoon storms are now beginning to take hold along the
coastline. Coverage will expand north and east, with the best
coverage expected along a swath covering the big bend to just past
the GA border and East. A few storms might linger into tonight
with the majority of activity diminishing after sunset. Expect
lows in the mid 70s and possibly some patchy fog just prior to
sunrise.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Upper ridge will gradually slide southward over the next two days
as a weak trough slowly approaches from the northwest. With an
associated decrease in subsidence from the ridge, expect to see
coverage of diurnal convection increase a bit Thursday, and again
on Friday. High temperatures should reach the lower 90s, near
seasonal normals for August.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The subtropical ridge axis will remain to the south through the
weekend, with weak disturbances in the mid-level westerly flow
helping to enhance coverage of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. By early next week, a more substantial upper trough
is forecast to develop over the Ohio River Valley, with a trough
axis extending to the central Gulf Coast. This will place the
forecast area in a favorable regime for numerous showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon at least through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...
SHRA/TSRA developing this afternoon and continuing into this
evening before diminishings tonight. Conditions will generally be
VFR outside of TSRA influence. However, Patchy fog and reduced
cigs could reduce conditions to MVFR/IFR briefly before sunrise
as well. Winds will be southwesterly 5 to 10 kts becoming light
and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light onshore flow will continue through Thursday before
becoming westerly on Friday through the weekend. Winds may
approach 15 knots Friday night before diminishing by Sunday for
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In addition to moist summertime conditions, relative humidity, winds,
and indices will remain below critical thresholds over the next several
days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will produce brief periods of
heavy rain across our area through the end of this week. However, by
early next weak ample moisture and the formation of a weak front
over our CWA could lead to fairly high coverage of scattered showers
and thunderstorm. Minor urban flooding and localized river rises are
possible in areas of slower moving storms with high rainfall
rates.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  74  91  74 /  10  50  10  50  30
Panama City   78  88  77  89  77 /  20  30  20  50  40
Dothan        74  91  74  89  73 /  20  30  30  60  30
Albany        74  91  74  90  74 /  20  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      73  91  73  91  74 /  10  50  20  40  20
Cross City    75  90  75  90  75 /  10  40  10  30  30
Apalachicola  78  87  78  88  77 /  10  30  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DiCatarina

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
356 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

GAZ157>159-082045-
Brooks GA-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
356 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRADY...CENTRAL
THOMAS AND NORTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Thomasville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Ochlocknee, Pavo, Coolidge, Barwick, Thomasville
Municipal A/P, Akridge, Dillon, Enon, Patten, Eason, Oaklawn,
Merrillville, Dawesville, Pine Park, Hollis, Newark and Pasco.

LAT...LON 3082 8374 3078 8407 3100 8418 3103 8380
      3103 8378 3104 8371 3104 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 237DEG 46KT 3086 8388

04-MCD