Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
241 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An eastern CONUS trough aloft, and ridging at the surface will
prevail through today. Breezy conditions will aid in diurnal mixing,
though a stronger cold pool aloft than yesterday will result in
slightly cooler afternoon highs than on Wednesday. Expect highs in
the upper 50s to low 60s, under clear skies, across the region.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Quiet and dry weather will persist through the short term period,
with broad troughing aloft early in the period giving way to quasi-
zonal flow late in the period. The ridge axis at the surface will
slide off to the east through the period, opening up the Gulf late
in the period. Expect return flow to increase late in the period,
ahead of a developing surface low to the west, setting the stage for
an active start to the long term period. Outside of a cold start to
Friday, with temperatures in the low 30s, temperatures are expected
to moderate to near normal levels by the end of the period. Lows in
the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s and 70s can be expected.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A strengthening shortwave trough will eject out of the Southern
Rockies Saturday and traverse the Southern Plains/Mississippi
Valley, entering the Southeast by late Saturday/early Sunday
timeframe. As mentioned in the short term discussion, return flow
will increase across the tri-state region on Saturday ahead of the
developing surface low near the ArkLaTex region. While showers and
thunderstorms are likely Saturday night through Sunday across the
entire region, severe weather chances remain murky at this time.
Instability and moisture (to a lesser extent) looks to be the
limiting factors at this time. It is worth noting that there will be
plenty of shear associated with this system, so a strong storm
cannot be ruled out.

Another cold front will sweep through the region Sunday into Monday,
yielding dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures through
the end of the period. Highs in the 60s and lows in the upper
30s/low 40s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail through the TAF.
Gusty NW winds are expected once again this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated northwesterly winds will persist through Friday before
calming below cautionary levels. Wave heights will generally range
from 2 to 4 feet today into Friday, before gradually decreasing into
the weekend. Another round of elevated winds and seas will are
expected Saturday into Sunday, with showers and thunderstorm chances
increasing late Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Deep mixing heights and strong transport winds will result in high
dispersion indices today across the region. Though relative humidity
values will fall to critical thresholds in Florida and couple with
strong winds, ERC values will fall short of needing a Red Flag
warning. Winds will subside enough by Friday to preclude any Red
Flag conditions, even though relative humidities will remain
critically low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers remain steady and below action stage. The progressive
nature of this weekend's system will likely not pose a flooding
threat across the region. General rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5
inches are possible with this system, with the highest rainfall
totals likely in the Florida Panhandle.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   62  33  67  39  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   60  38  64  50  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        57  33  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        57  33  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      60  34  64  38  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    62  33  67  37  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  37  63  49  70 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-
     Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Pullin