Freeze Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Coffee County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Calhoun County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Madison County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Worth County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1218 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will persist with a scattered cumulus field in
Southwest GA giving way to clear skies. Winds will be gusty out of
the northwest this afternoon, but drop off to calm after sunset.
Winds will be much lighter tomorrow than the past couple of days.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [947 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough aloft and surface ridge will prevail
through today. Breezy conditions will aid in diurnal mixing,
though a stronger cold pool aloft than yesterday will result in
slightly cooler afternoon highs. Expect highs in the upper 50s
north of U.S. 84 to low 60s south of the highway. Skies will be
clear across most of the region with high cirrus over the Gulf of
Mexico.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Quiet and dry weather will persist through the short term period,
with broad troughing aloft early in the period giving way to quasi-
zonal flow late in the period. The ridge axis at the surface will
slide off to the east through the period, opening up the Gulf late
in the period. Expect return flow to increase late in the period,
ahead of a developing surface low to the west, setting the stage for
an active start to the long term period. Outside of a cold start to
Friday, with temperatures in the low 30s, temperatures are expected
to moderate to near normal levels by the end of the period. Lows in
the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s and 70s can be expected.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A strengthening shortwave trough will eject out of the Southern
Rockies Saturday and traverse the Southern Plains/Mississippi
Valley, entering the Southeast by late Saturday/early Sunday
timeframe. As mentioned in the short term discussion, return flow
will increase across the tri-state region on Saturday ahead of the
developing surface low near the ArkLaTex region. While showers and
thunderstorms are likely Saturday night through Sunday across the
entire region, severe weather chances remain murky at this time.
Instability and moisture (to a lesser extent) looks to be the
limiting factors at this time. It is worth noting that there will be
plenty of shear associated with this system, so a strong storm
cannot be ruled out.

Another cold front will sweep through the region Sunday into Monday,
yielding dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures through
the end of the period. Highs in the 60s and lows in the upper
30s/low 40s will be common.

.MARINE...

Elevated northwesterly winds will persist through Friday before
calming below cautionary levels. Wave heights will generally range
from 2 to 4 feet today into Friday, before gradually decreasing into
the weekend. Another round of elevated winds and seas will are
expected Saturday into Sunday, with showers and thunderstorm chances
increasing late Saturday through Sunday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Deep mixing heights and strong transport winds will result in high
dispersion indices today across the region. Relative humidity
values will fall to critical thresholds in Florida and coupled
with strong winds and low fuel moisture will result in red flag
conditions for several counties today. Winds will subside enough
by Friday to preclude any Red Flag conditions, even though
relative humidities will remain critically low.

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers remain steady and below action stage. The progressive
nature of this weekend's system will likely not pose a flooding
threat across the region. General rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5
inches are possible with this system, with the highest rainfall
totals likely in the Florida Panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   33  66  39  72  57 /   0   0   0   0  60
Panama City   38  63  50  70  63 /   0   0   0  10  60
Dothan        33  64  42  71  56 /   0   0   0  10  80
Albany        33  62  40  71  55 /   0   0   0   0  70
Valdosta      34  64  39  72  53 /   0   0   0   0  50
Cross City    33  66  39  73  56 /   0   0   0   0  40
Apalachicola  37  63  48  70  62 /   0   0   0  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Gulf-
     South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Wool
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Pullin