Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
640 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

IFR and LIFR will continue through Saturday morning with showers
and occasional thunderstorms. These will gradually taper off
Sunday afternoon. A gradual improvement to MVFR late Sunday.
Winds southerly around 10 knots through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [350 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Complex of storms in the Gulf of Mexico has lifted northward today
and onshore over the past few hours. Already saw strong rotation in
northern Bay County that was co-located with a CC signature. Better
instability is across the western portion of the CWA and this should
continue to increase over the next few hours. In addition, the whole
CWA has 35-40kts of low level shear. Focus for much of the remainder
of the afternoon into tonight should remain across the western half
of the CWA, mainly west of a line from the Tallahassee to Albany, in
areas where the better instability is located. East of there, the
threat is lower, but not non-existent. Main threats are damaging
winds and a few tornadoes. Tornado watch remains in effect through
this evening for the western portion of the CWA.

Hi-res models have not had a good handle in terms of the evolution
of the PoPs today and there are discrepancies between the CAMs on the
forecast for tonight with some showing a more active pattern and
others a little more sporadic with activity. Do expect activity to
continue overnight, but confidence in coverage is a little lower.
Enough though to go likely to definite PoPs in the forecast.

With the setup of the storms, training will be possible with the
storms, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia. While additional widespread rainfall
amounts are in the 2-3 inch range for much of those areas through
12z Sunday, isolated higher amounts will be possible that may lead
to flash flooding, thus the flash flood watch remains in effect and
this is another threat that will have to be watched closely.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

By 12z Sunday the cold front is forecast to be just west and
northwest of our CWA with the warm front well to our north. The
cold front should progress slowly eastward to a line roughly from
Albany swwd to Panama City by Sunday afternoon before it stalls
as it becomes aligned with the mid/upper flow. SPC continues to
show a Slight Risk for severe weather in the warm sector covering
most of our GA zones with a marginal risk across the remainder of
our FA. Forecast soundings from the GFS show MLCAPE values
increasing in the afternoon to 1000-2000 J/kg along with
unidirectional bulk shear (0-6 km) of 40-50+ kts. This will lead
to a threat for damaging straight line winds but a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.

Another upper disturbance will eject eastward out of the Southern
Plains to the Tennessee Valley Sunday night/Monday which will
nudge the front eastward and through our area Monday night. A weak
wave is also forecast to develop on the front south of Mobile
Monday and lift northeast across the Florida Panhandle. This will
help to enhance convection and the potential for heavy rainfall
with deep layer moisture in place. For Sunday, while PoPs will be
high (60-70%), QPF amounts don't look overly impressive. However,
the Flash Flood Watch will likely remain in place with the
anticipation for more widespread heavy rains during the Sunday
night/Monday timeframe. As the front pushes through Monday night,
rain will be tapering off from west to east.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

In the wake of the front, cooler and much drier conditions are
expected for Tuesday and should continue through the remainder of
the work week. Rain chances return on Saturday ahead of the next
cold front. Lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s Tuesday and
Wednesday nights with a light freeze possible in the normally
colder locations. Highs will only be in the lower to mid 50s
Wednesday moderating to the mid 60s to around 70 on Saturday.

.MARINE...

Strong south winds of 20 to 25 knots will continue through
tonight with seas building to 8 feet today into tonight. Winds
slightly decrease to moderate levels Sunday through Tuesday with
seas remaining elevated. A cold front will move through the marine
waters Tuesday with winds becoming strong once again.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rainfall will preclude any fire weather concerns through
the period.

.HYDROLOGY...

A flash flood watch continues in effect for all but the southeast
Florida Big Bend and our easternmost GA zones. So far rainfall
amounts have generally been between 1 and 2 inches but additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the watch area
through Monday. East of the watch, 2 to 4 inches can be expected.
Flash flooding can be expected and river flooding as well with the
basins across the Florida panhandle having the highest risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  79  65  75  53 /  80  70  70  80  20
Panama City   70  76  64  72  52 /  70  70  80  80  20
Dothan        66  75  58  69  46 /  70  60  70  70  10
Albany        68  77  60  70  48 /  80  70  80  70  10
Valdosta      67  79  65  74  52 /  80  70  70  80  30
Cross City    69  80  66  76  59 /  50  60  50  80  40
Apalachicola  71  76  66  74  55 /  60  70  70  80  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for Baker-Brooks-
     Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Barry

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
346 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

FLZ008-010-012-108-112-012130-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-
Washington FL-
346 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY...SOUTHEASTERN
WALTON AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EST/330 PM
CST/...

At 346 PM EST/246 PM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 11 miles southeast of Santa Rosa Beach, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Ebro, West Bay, Inlet Beach, Seminole Hills,
Seaside, Red Head, Pine Log, Sunnyside, Laird, Laguna Beach,
Vicksburg, Hollywood Beach and Seagrove Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST/600 PM CST/ for
the Panhandle of Florida.

LAT...LON 3051 8586 3032 8561 3022 8592 3026 8600
      3031 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 235DEG 32KT 3024 8616

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
426 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SSW WAUSAU            30.61N 85.59W
12/01/2018                   WASHINGTON         FL   911 CALL CENTER

            HOUSE WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING NEAR BEN ROAD
            AND HWY 77. SMOKE WAS OBSERVED BUT NO
            FLAMES.

&&

JLF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
438 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

FLZ011-013-016-026-GAZ155-156-012230-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
438 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHERN
CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...NORTHWESTERN GADSDEN
AND NORTH CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTIES IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...DECATUR
AND CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 530 PM
EST/430 PM CST/...

At 438 PM EST/338 PM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Chattahoochee, or 17 miles northeast of
Blountstown, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bainbridge, Blountstown, Greensboro, West Bainbridge, Chattahoochee,
Sneads, Gretna, Bristol, Grand Ridge, Altha, Attapulgus, Brinson,
Rock Bluff, Ocheesee, Juniper, Douglas City, Selman, Recovery,
Chipola and Laingkat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST/600 PM CST/ for
Big Bend of and the Panhandle of Florida...and southwestern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3048 8533 3101 8478 3084 8438 3078 8438
      3041 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 235DEG 49KT 3063 8488

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
443 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

FLZ007>010-108-012330-
Central Walton FL-Holmes FL-South Walton FL-North Walton FL-
Washington FL-
443 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALTON...WESTERN HOLMES
AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CST...

At 443 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Eglin Air Force Base, or 9 miles northwest of Santa
Rosa Beach, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Santa Rosa Beach, De Funiak Springs, Bonifay, Eglin Air Force
Base, Union, Live Oak, Freeport, Ponce De Leon, Caryville, Westville,
Hinsons Crossroads, Portland, Whitehead Crossroads, Villa Tasso,
Cerrogordo, Gritney, Arrant Settlement, De Funiak Spring Airport and
Rock Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for the Panhandle
of Florida.

LAT...LON 3040 8639 3038 8633 3045 8631 3048 8632
      3046 8639 3060 8639 3094 8591 3069 8552
      3040 8612 3042 8614 3043 8612 3044 8616
      3048 8614 3046 8619 3042 8622 3041 8622
      3038 8616 3033 8629 3036 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 239DEG 49KT 3050 8632

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
557 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     FLOOD            DOUGLAS CITY            30.59N 84.64W
12/01/2018                   GADSDEN            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            MINOR FLOODING ON A FEW ROADS IN GADSDEN
            COUNTY.

&&

JLF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
637 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

ALZ065-066-068-069-020130-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-Houston AL-Geneva AL-
637 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DALE...SOUTHERN COFFEE...
NORTHERN GENEVA AND NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CST...

At 637 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Samson, or 11 miles southwest of Enterprise,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daleville, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, Ozark, Dothan, Hartford, Midland
City, Level Plains, Samson, Newton, New Brockton, Pinckard,
Clayhatchee, Coffee Springs, Hunt Field, Waterford, Hooper Stage
Field, Gerald, Central City and Logan Field Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for southeastern
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3156 8547 3116 8550 3104 8606 3126 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 247DEG 49KT 3122 8598

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