Alert archive / Maryland / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 85

May 12, 20184 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 12, 2018, 4:58 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2018, 4:58 PM EDT (20:58 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2018, 9:56 PM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 32 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 6:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York52 min
May 12, 6:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, York53 min
May 12, 6:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster37 min
May 12, 6:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford65 min
May 12, 7:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle45 min
May 12, 7:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle44 min
May 12, 7:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster57 min
May 12, 7:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle50 min
May 12, 7:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle45 min
May 12, 7:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford, City of Baltimore46 min
May 12, 7:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle45 min
May 12, 8:02 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel43 min
May 12, 8:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle49 min
May 12, 8:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's62 min
May 12, 8:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot50 min
May 12, 8:50 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIKent, New Castle3 hr
May 12, 8:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, Sussex39 min
May 12, 9:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, Sussex63 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 178 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1390 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

717 
WWUS20 KWNS 122055
SEL5  
SPC WW 122055
DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-130500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 85
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Delaware
  Central and eastern Maryland
  Southern New Jersey
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 455
  PM until 100 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will spread east towards
the Mid-Atlantic Coast through the evening. Low-level wind profiles
on the cool side of a quasi-stationary front will favor a few
rotating storms with mainly a damaging wind and tornado risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
either side of a line from 20 miles southwest of Harrisburg PA to 30
miles east southeast of Atlantic City NJ. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28035.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 3:59 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle3 hr
May 12, 7:16 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex59 min
May 12, 1:51 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Garrett2 hr
May 12, 2:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegany, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Garrett, Montgomery and 3 more8 hr
May 12, 5:05 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Frederick, Garrett, Washington115 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2018Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018Tornado Watches in New Jersey, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.