Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 445
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 26, 2018, 9:34 PM CST for 35 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 26, 2018, 9:34 PM CST (03:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 27, 2018, 4:00 AM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 35 counties
Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Falls County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Houston County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Panola County, TX, Polk County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 50%
Warnings issued inside it
19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 9:54 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Cherokee, Gregg, Rusk, Smith | 23 min |
| Dec 26, 9:55 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | HGX | Houston, Trinity | 35 min |
| Dec 26, 9:56 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Angelina, Cherokee, Nacogdoches, Rusk, Shelby | 49 min |
| Dec 26, 10:15 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Camp, Cass, Gregg, Marion, Morris, Smith and 3 more | 29 min |
| Dec 26, 10:50 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Bell, Milam | 40 min |
| Dec 26, 11:09 PM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Camp, Morris, Titus, Upshur, Wood | 36 min |
| Dec 26, 11:10 PM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Morris, Red River, Titus and 1 more | 35 min |
| Dec 26, 11:18 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FWD | Milam | 27 min |
| Dec 27, 12:10 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Upshur | 50 min |
| Dec 27, 12:18 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | HGX | Brazos, Grimes, Madison | 27 min |
| Dec 27, 12:38 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | HGX | Houston, Madison | 52 min |
| Dec 27, 12:53 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Bowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion | 52 min |
| Dec 27, 12:55 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Harrison, Marion | 25 min |
| Dec 27, 1:21 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | HGX | Houston | 39 min |
| Dec 27, 1:23 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Marion | 37 min |
| Dec 27, 1:30 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Cass, Harrison, Marion | 60 min |
| Dec 27, 1:37 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Harrison | 38 min |
| Dec 27, 1:43 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Nacogdoches, Panola, Rusk, Shelby | 32 min |
| Dec 27, 2:07 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SHV | Panola | 27 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 836 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 280 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 510 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
271 WWUS20 KWNS 270330 SEL5 SPC WW 270330 TXZ000-271000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 930 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of East-Central Texas * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 930 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...As some additional warming and moistening occurs, isolated storms could intensify late this evening/overnight ahead of an eastward-moving convective line and cold front. While a particularly widespread severe risk is not expected, adequate moisture/instability exists in the presence of very strong deep-layer/low-level shear for the possibility of damaging winds and a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Tyler TX to 20 miles south southeast of College Station TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 444... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 7:13 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 26, 8:51 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 18 more | 114 min |
| Dec 26, 11:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar and 39 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 12:02 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bowie, Cass | 5 hr |
| Dec 27, 3:09 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 3:43 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 10 more | 10 hr |
| Dec 27, 7:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jefferson, Orange | 2 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.