Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 445

December 26, 201835 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 26, 2018, 9:34 PM CST for 35 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 26, 2018, 9:34 PM CST (03:34 UTC)
Expired
Dec 27, 2018, 4:00 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 35 counties

Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Falls County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Houston County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Panola County, TX, Polk County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Washington County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

19 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 9:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCherokee, Gregg, Rusk, Smith23 min
Dec 26, 9:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Trinity35 min
Dec 26, 9:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVAngelina, Cherokee, Nacogdoches, Rusk, Shelby49 min
Dec 26, 10:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCamp, Cass, Gregg, Marion, Morris, Smith and 3 more29 min
Dec 26, 10:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDBell, Milam40 min
Dec 26, 11:09 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCamp, Morris, Titus, Upshur, Wood36 min
Dec 26, 11:10 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBowie, Camp, Cass, Morris, Red River, Titus and 1 more35 min
Dec 26, 11:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDMilam27 min
Dec 27, 12:10 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVCass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion, Upshur50 min
Dec 27, 12:18 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXBrazos, Grimes, Madison27 min
Dec 27, 12:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston, Madison52 min
Dec 27, 12:53 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBowie, Cass, Harrison, Marion52 min
Dec 27, 12:55 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVHarrison, Marion25 min
Dec 27, 1:21 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningHGXHouston39 min
Dec 27, 1:23 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVMarion37 min
Dec 27, 1:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCass, Harrison, Marion60 min
Dec 27, 1:37 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVHarrison38 min
Dec 27, 1:43 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVNacogdoches, Panola, Rusk, Shelby32 min
Dec 27, 2:07 AM CSTTornado WarningSHVPanola27 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2018-12-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2018-12-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 280 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
836 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
280 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
510 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

271 
WWUS20 KWNS 270330
SEL5  
SPC WW 270330
TXZ000-271000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 445
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  East-Central Texas

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 930 PM
  until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...As some additional warming and moistening occurs, isolated
storms could intensify late this evening/overnight ahead of an
eastward-moving convective line and cold front. While a particularly
widespread severe risk is not expected, adequate
moisture/instability exists in the presence of very strong
deep-layer/low-level shear for the possibility of damaging winds and
a tornado risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Tyler TX to
20 miles south southeast of College Station TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 442...WW 444...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 7:13 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Bosque, Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta and 22 more2 hr
Dec 26, 8:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 18 more114 min
Dec 26, 11:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Angelina, Atascosa, Austin, Bastrop, Bexar and 39 more2 hr
Dec 27, 12:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBowie, Cass5 hr
Dec 27, 3:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston and 14 more2 hr
Dec 27, 3:43 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 10 more10 hr
Dec 27, 7:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Orange2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.