Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 428

November 13, 201813 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 13, 2018, 1:56 AM EST for 13 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 13, 2018, 1:56 AM EST (06:56 UTC)
Expired: Nov 13, 2018, 7:38 AM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 30%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 13, 3:32 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Beaufort, Craven, Hyde, Martin, Pamlico, Pitt and 1 more	43 min
Nov 13, 4:03 AM EST	Tornado Warning	MHX	Carteret, Onslow	57 min
Nov 13, 4:06 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Beaufort, Dare, Hyde, Pamlico, Tyrrell, Washington	39 min
Nov 13, 5:08 AM EST	Tornado Warning	MHX	Carteret	37 min
Nov 13, 6:10 AM EST	Tornado Warning	MHX	Hyde	20 min
Nov 13, 6:37 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MHX	Dare, Hyde	53 min
Nov 13, 6:53 AM EST	Tornado Warning	MHX	Dare	22 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1040 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 541 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

818 
WWUS20 KWNS 130654
SEL8  
SPC WW 130654
NCZ000-CWZ000-131300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern North Carolina
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday morning from 155 AM until 800 AM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A few supercells are possible over near-coastal counties
of NC through dawn, including the central/southern Outer Banks.  The
environment contains large observed low-level shear and increasing
moisture, supporting the risk of tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
either side of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Wilmington NC
to 30 miles north of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 22030.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 13, 12:16 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Dare and 8 more	2 hr
Nov 13, 3:46 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Dare and 8 more	59 min
Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carteret, Dare, Hyde	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2018 Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.