Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018

Mesoscale Discussion 1641

November 13, 201814 counties in North Carolina; Horry County, South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 13, 2018, 12:16 AM EST for 14 counties in North Carolina; Horry County, South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 13, 2018, 12:16 AM EST (05:16 UTC)
Expired: Nov 13, 2018, 2:45 AM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Dare County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Jones County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pender County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Horry County, SC

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 428Nov 13, 1:55 AM EST

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 10 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1040 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 541 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 13, 1:56 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Beaufort, Brunswick, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Duplin and 7 more	6 hr
Nov 13, 3:46 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaufort, Brunswick, Carteret, Columbus, Craven, Dare and 8 more	59 min
Nov 13, 5:57 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carteret, Dare, Hyde	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2018 Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2018 Every mesoscale discussion in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.