Alert archive / Georgia / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 407
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 10, 2018, 2:44 PM EDT for 26 counties in Florida; 116 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 10, 2018, 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 11, 2018, 2:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 142 counties
Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Levy County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Marion County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Baker County, GA, Baldwin County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Butts County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Camden County, GA, Candler County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clay County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Echols County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Grady County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Harris County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lee County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Pike County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Screven County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Turner County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walton County, GA, Ware County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Worth County, GA
The radar
The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 5%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 5%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 20%
Warnings issued inside it
17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 3:10 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JAX | Bradford, Clay, Duval, Nassau | 39 min |
| Oct 10, 3:11 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | FFC | Houston, Macon, Peach | 34 min |
| Oct 10, 3:29 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | FFC | Crawford, Peach | 20 min |
| Oct 10, 3:55 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | TAE | Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 10, 4:01 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | FFC | Crawford, Upson | 14 min |
| Oct 10, 4:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAX | Duval, Saint Johns | 40 min |
| Oct 10, 4:10 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JAX | Alachua, Bradford, Clay, Putnam | 50 min |
| Oct 10, 4:10 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JAX | Brantley, Charlton, Pierce, Ware | 35 min |
| Oct 10, 4:37 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JAX | Nassau | 38 min |
| Oct 10, 4:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAX | Duval, Nassau | 46 min |
| Oct 10, 4:44 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | JAX | Brantley, Charlton | 31 min |
| Oct 10, 5:44 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | TAE | Decatur, Early, Miller, Seminole | 3 hr |
| Oct 10, 6:49 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | TAE | Baker, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty, Mitchell and 4 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 10, 8:27 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | TAE | Dougherty, Lee | 3 hr |
| Oct 10, 8:59 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | FFC | Chattahoochee, Crisp, Dooly, Houston, Macon, Marion and 6 more | 6 hr |
| Oct 10, 9:01 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | TAE | Quitman, Randolph, Terrell | 4 hr |
| Oct 10, 10:50 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | CHS | Chatham | 25 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1002 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -11 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 748 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 122 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 116 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
029 WWUS20 KWNS 101842 SEL7 SPC WW 101842 FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-110600- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 245 PM until 200 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Hurricane Michael will continue to spread northeastward with an increasingly strong low-level wind field overspreading northern Florida and much of Georgia through the afternoon and evening. The possibility of low-topped supercells capable of tornadoes can be expected across the region for a long duration. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Macon GA to 80 miles south southeast of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14040. ...Guyer
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 4:45 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist and 12 more | 3 hr |
| Oct 10, 5:46 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist and 13 more | 11 hr |
| Oct 10, 8:06 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Wakulla | 54 min |
| Oct 10, 11:30 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden and 14 more | 105 min |
| Oct 10, 1:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baker, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Union | 3 hr |
| Oct 10, 4:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 15 more | 118 min |
| Oct 10, 4:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston and 28 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2018Tornado Watches in Florida, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.