Alert archive / Georgia / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 407

October 10, 201826 counties in Florida; 116 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 10, 2018, 2:44 PM EDT for 26 counties in Florida; 116 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2018, 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2018, 2:00 AM EDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 142 counties

Alachua County, FL, Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Levy County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Marion County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Baker County, GA, Baldwin County, GA, Barrow County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Bibb County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Butts County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Camden County, GA, Candler County, GA, Charlton County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clarke County, GA, Clay County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Echols County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Grady County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Harris County, GA, Henry County, GA, Houston County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jasper County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Jones County, GA, Lamar County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lee County, GA, Liberty County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Long County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, McIntosh County, GA, Meriwether County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Monroe County, GA, Montgomery County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Peach County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Pike County, GA, Pulaski County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Rockdale County, GA, Schley County, GA, Screven County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Spalding County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Tattnall County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Telfair County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Toombs County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Turner County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Upson County, GA, Walton County, GA, Ware County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wayne County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wheeler County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Worth County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
5%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
20%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 3:10 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedJAXBradford, Clay, Duval, Nassau39 min
Oct 10, 3:11 PM EDTTornado WarningFFCHouston, Macon, Peach34 min
Oct 10, 3:29 PM EDTTornado WarningFFCCrawford, Peach20 min
Oct 10, 3:55 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningTAEBay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes and 6 more6 hr
Oct 10, 4:01 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFFCCrawford, Upson14 min
Oct 10, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXDuval, Saint Johns40 min
Oct 10, 4:10 PM EDTTornado WarningJAXAlachua, Bradford, Clay, Putnam50 min
Oct 10, 4:10 PM EDTTornado WarningJAXBrantley, Charlton, Pierce, Ware35 min
Oct 10, 4:37 PM EDTTornado WarningJAXNassau38 min
Oct 10, 4:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAXDuval, Nassau46 min
Oct 10, 4:44 PM EDTTornado WarningJAXBrantley, Charlton31 min
Oct 10, 5:44 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningTAEDecatur, Early, Miller, Seminole3 hr
Oct 10, 6:49 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningTAEBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty, Mitchell and 4 more3 hr
Oct 10, 8:27 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningTAEDougherty, Lee3 hr
Oct 10, 8:59 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningFFCChattahoochee, Crisp, Dooly, Houston, Macon, Marion and 6 more6 hr
Oct 10, 9:01 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningTAEQuitman, Randolph, Terrell4 hr
Oct 10, 10:50 PM EDTTornado WarningCHSChatham25 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2018-10-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1002 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2018-10-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1002 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
748 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

029 
WWUS20 KWNS 101842
SEL7  
SPC WW 101842
FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-110600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
245 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Florida
  Georgia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from
  245 PM until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...Hurricane Michael will continue to spread northeastward
with an increasingly strong low-level wind field overspreading
northern Florida and much of Georgia through the afternoon and
evening. The possibility of low-topped supercells capable of
tornadoes can be expected across the region for a long duration.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Macon GA to
80 miles south southeast of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 14040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 4:45 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist and 12 more3 hr
Oct 10, 5:46 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBay, Calhoun, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist and 13 more11 hr
Oct 10, 8:06 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWakulla54 min
Oct 10, 11:30 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden and 14 more105 min
Oct 10, 1:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Columbia, Duval, Nassau, Union3 hr
Oct 10, 4:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie and 15 more118 min
Oct 10, 4:50 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAiken, Bamberg, Barnwell, Berkeley, Calhoun, Charleston and 28 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Georgia, 2018Tornado Watches in Florida, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.