Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

Conditions will continue to deteriorate from south to north
across area terminals this morning into the afternoon as
Hurricane Michael moves closer and eventually inland across the
Florida panhandle. Winds will increase with lowering ceilings as
bands of convection move through the region. We will see gradual
improvement late tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [439 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Today through Tonight]...

Key Points...

1. Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a Category 4
Hurricane along the Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend today as a
storm of unprecedented strength for this area. Conditions will
continue deteriorating through this afternoon and evening.

2. The greatest threats include the danger of life threatening storm
surge along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastlines and
damaging winds that will result in widespread power outages that may
last days to even more than a week in some areas. In addition,
river flooding and flash flooding and a few tornadoes are expected.

3. The time to prepare is ending. Be prepared to shelter in place
for a long duration of time. As winds increase or a Tornado Warning
is issued be prepared to get to a small interior room away from
outside walls.

Today and tonight is when the greatest, catastrophic impacts from
Hurricane Michael will be felt across the area. Michael is forecast
to be a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall along the
Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend this afternoon. Based on
historical data, a hurricane of this strength has NEVER made
landfall in this region and thus this is an event that will have
unprecedented impacts. Bands from Hurricane Michael are already
moving onshore. Be prepared for tornadoes in these
 and have a safe interior room to go when when either a Tornado
Warning is issued or the devestating winds from Michael move
onshore.

Life threatening storm surge, downed trees and power lines causing
widespread and long lasting power outages, structural damage impacting
homes and businesses, river flooding and flash flooding, and a few
tornadoes are all expected.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

In the wake of the departing hurricane, Thursday will be hot and
very humid with heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially
over the Florida zones. This will be very uncomfortable
particularly for those residents who are without power due to
Hurricane Michael. Some relief will arrive Thursday night and
Friday as a the first cold front of this fall season sweeps
through the region. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 80s to
around 90 with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s
northwest to mid 80s southeast. Lows Thursday night will range
from the mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid
October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For
Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to
uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside
between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure
nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture
to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower
activity during this period.

.MARINE...

Hurricane Michael is expected to have a major impact on the area.
Hurricane conditions are expected with the worst conditions today
and tonight.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion values today, there are no other fire
weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Given the track and intensity of Hurricane Michael, widespread rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are
possible. The highest of these totals will be in the Florida
panhandle and western Big Bend counties along and to the east of
the track of Michael. These rainfall amounts will result in flash
flooding.

At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Chipola,
Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers. Despite
current river conditions below normal levels, with the forecast
rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above flood
stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   79  76  89  59  82 / 100 100  20  10   0
Panama City   79  74  89  61  81 / 100  70  20  10   0
Dothan        78  73  86  54  78 / 100 100  20   0   0
Albany        83  73  87  55  79 / 100 100  50  10   0
Valdosta      84  76  88  60  82 /  90 100  30  10   0
Cross City    83  78  90  65  86 /  90  90  20  10   0
Apalachicola  81  77  87  64  81 / 100  70  20  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-
     Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Ben Hill-Berrien-Cook-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lowndes.

AL...Hurricane Warning for Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee.

GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
404 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HURRICANE        TALLAHASSEE INTERNATION 30.39N 84.35W
10/10/2018                   LEON               FL   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM TALLAHASSEE INTERNATIONAL A/P. ASOS
            STATION TLH, TALLAHASSEE INTERNATIONAL
            AIRPORT REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 71 MPH.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
427 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HURRICANE        1 E MEXICO BEACH        29.95N 85.41W
10/10/2018                   BAY                FL   PUBLIC

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND INUNDATION REPORTED
            THROUGHOUT MEXICO BEACH.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
437 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HURRICANE        1 SSW PANAMA CITY       30.16N 85.68W
10/10/2018                   GMZ750             FL   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE THROUGHOUT PANAMA
            CITY. REPORTS INCLUDE: DOWN TREES, DOWN
            POWERLINES, DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES, AND
            INUNDATION ALONG PANAMA CITY BEACH.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
456 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HURRICANE        MARIANNA                30.77N 85.24W
10/10/2018                   JACKSON            FL   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE IN MARIANA
            INCLUDING DAMAGE TO INSTITUTIONAL LEVEL
            BUILDINGS, ALONG WITH DOWN POWER LINES, DOWN
            TREES AND FLOODING.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
513 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HURRICANE        SHELL POINT             30.06N 84.29W
10/10/2018                   WAKULLA            FL   OTHER FEDERAL

            SATION SHPF1, SHELL POINT REPORTED A GUST OF
            67 MPH.

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
529 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HURRICANE        DONALDSONVILLE A/P      31.01N 84.88W
10/10/2018                   SEMINOLE           GA   MESONET

            MESONET SITE AT DONALSONVILLE AIRPORT
            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 79 MPH.

0515 PM     HURRICANE        SEMINOLE STATE PARK     30.79N 84.88W
10/10/2018                   SEMINOLE           GA   MESONET

            MESONET SITE FROM GEORGIAWEATHER MEASURED
            WIND GUST OF 79 MPH.

0515 PM     HURRICANE        STEAM MILL              30.98N 84.97W
10/10/2018                   SEMINOLE           GA   MESONET

            MESONET SITE FROM GEORGIAWEATHER MEASURED
            WIND GUST OF 83 MPH.

&&