Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 384

September 20, 201828 counties in Minnesota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Sep 20, 2018, 3:33 PM CDT for 28 counties in Minnesota. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 20, 2018, 3:33 PM CDT (20:33 UTC)
Expired
Sep 20, 2018, 7:58 PM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 28 counties

Blue Earth County, MN, Brown County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cottonwood County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Faribault County, MN, Freeborn County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Le Sueur County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Martin County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nicollet County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Rice County, MN, Rock County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sibley County, MN, Steele County, MN, Waseca County, MN, Washington County, MN, Watonwan County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 5:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFSDJackson28 min
Sep 20, 5:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBlue Earth, Faribault, Martin, Watonwan45 min
Sep 20, 5:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBlue Earth, Faribault, Waseca46 min
Sep 20, 6:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXCarver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott47 min
Sep 20, 6:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXCarver15 min
Sep 20, 6:19 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXLe Sueur, Rice, Waseca41 min
Sep 20, 6:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXFreeborn, Le Sueur, Rice, Steele, Waseca52 min
Sep 20, 6:40 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXGoodhue, Rice, Steele35 min
Sep 20, 6:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXAnoka, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington34 min
Sep 20, 6:49 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedMPXDakota, Goodhue, Rice41 min
Sep 20, 7:13 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXGoodhue36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2018-09-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 18 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2018-09-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 195 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-80 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
461 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

029 
WWUS20 KWNS 202031
SEL4  
SPC WW 202031
MNZ000-210400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Minnesota

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon
across southern Minnesota and track quickly northeastward. 
Parameters are favorable for a few tornadoes, as well as rather
widespread damaging wind gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles east of Mankato MN to 45
miles northwest of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 383...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 2:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Carver, Cottonwood, Dakota, Dodge and 26 more3 hr
Sep 20, 5:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Brown, Carver, Cottonwood, Dakota, Dodge and 24 more2 hr
Sep 20, 6:23 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCDodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha and 1 more5 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.