Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 271

July 11, 201820 counties in Minnesota; Richland County, North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 11, 2018, 6:42 PM CDT for 20 counties in Minnesota; Richland County, North Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2018, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
Expired
Jul 12, 2018, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 21 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Koochiching County, MN, Lake of the Woods County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pennington County, MN, Polk County, MN, Red Lake County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Richland County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 206 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBeltrami, Lake of the Woods59 min
Jul 11, 8:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBeltrami, Lake of the Woods57 min
Jul 11, 9:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFClearwater, Mahnomen, Polk67 min
Jul 11, 9:23 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBeltrami52 min
Jul 11, 9:30 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBeltrami, Lake of the Woods30 min
Jul 11, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHKoochiching38 min
Jul 11, 9:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBeltrami48 min
Jul 11, 10:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHKoochiching40 min
Jul 11, 10:42 PM CDTTornado WarningDLHKoochiching33 min
Jul 11, 11:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHItasca, Koochiching50 min
Jul 11, 11:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBecker, Clearwater, Hubbard64 min
Jul 11, 11:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass48 min
Jul 11, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca46 min
Jul 12, 12:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass, Crow Wing42 min
Jul 12, 12:34 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHItasca, Koochiching3 hr
Jul 12, 12:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca, Saint Louis48 min
Jul 12, 12:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Crow Wing37 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2018-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 12:00Z on 2018-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 153 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1634 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
239 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

396 
WWUS20 KWNS 112339
SEL1  
SPC WW 112339
MNZ000-NDZ000-120600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northern Minnesota
  Southeast North Dakota

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 640 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front
over northwest MN and spread eastward across the watch through the
evening.  Damaging winds and hail are the main threats, but some
tornado potential also exists for a few hours this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles west northwest of
International Falls MN to 55 miles south southeast of Detroit Lakes
MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 3:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBecker, Beltrami, Cass, Clay, Clearwater, Hubbard and 10 more3 hr
Jul 10, 7:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBillings, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, McKenzie and 5 more118 min
Jul 10, 8:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBottineau, Burke, Divide, McHenry, McKenzie, Mountrail and 5 more5 hr
Jul 10, 11:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBottineau, Burke, McHenry, Mountrail, Pierce, Renville and 3 more115 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2018Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.