Alert archive / Minnesota / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Duluth, MN

July 12, 2018Itasca County, Koochiching County, Minnesota

NWS Duluth, MN issued this flash flood warning at Jul 12, 2018, 12:34 AM CDT for Itasca County, Koochiching County, Minnesota. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 12, 2018, 12:34 AM CDT (05:34 UTC)
Expired
Jul 12, 2018, 3:19 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Duluth, MN
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Itasca County, MN, Koochiching County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 162 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2018-07-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 626 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, International Fa, MN at 00:00Z on 2018-07-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 244 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
626 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-198 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
938 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
244 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
416 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 12, 12:10 AM CDT, 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 12:10 AM CDT, 24 minutes before
<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 3:13 PM CDT, 9 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
313 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-121200-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
313 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong northeast winds will increase the threat of rip currents
today through this evening for areas near the Twin Ports,
including the beaches of Duluth and Superior. A Beach Hazards
Statement has been issued for these areas.

Strong to severe storms are likely to develop across north-
central Minnesota late this afternoon or this evening, tracking
southeast across much of northeast Minnesota and parts of
northwest Wisconsin this evening and overnight. These storms could
produce very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash
flooding. Areas of north-central Minnesota from the Brainerd Lakes
region north to the international border are at the greatest risk
for very large hail and tornadoes. A Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for much of central and northeast MN, and parts of far
northwest Wisconsin, tonight through early Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will remain possible Thursday and Thursday evening,
mainly over northwest Wisconsin. Some of those storms could be
severe and produce heavy rainfall over portions of northwest
Wisconsin Thursday afternoon and evening.

A chance of thunderstorms returns to the area Saturday night
and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn Spotters will likely be needed very late this afternoon
and this evening.

LSZ121-140>148-121200-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
313 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Nearshore
waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from Taconite Harbor, to
Duluth, to Bayfield into the evening.

In addition to the high winds and waves, we will likely see
numerous thunderstorms develop overnight. Some of the storms may
be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible from Saturday night into Sunday night.

DAP/G2

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 8:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
858 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

MNZ010-120230-
Koochiching-
858 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING WESTERN KOOCHICHING COUNTY...

At 858 PM CDT, an area of strong to severe thunderstorms in the Red
Lake and Waskish areas, continued to moving northeast at 30 mph. If
these storms maintain their present strength and movement, they will
begin affecting much of western Koochiching County between 900 and
1000 PM CDT.

Wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, quarter size or larger hail,
torrential rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning will all
be possible, and severe thunderstorm warnings may be needed

Please monitor local media outlets for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service over the next
hour, and be prepared to seek shelter.  Remember that a tornado
watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4871 9429 4869 9425 4866 9425 4865 9423
      4863 9393 4825 9399 4811 9442 4871 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 242DEG 26KT 4831 9450

 Miller
Special weather statement, Jul 11, 9:32 PM CDT, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
932 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

MNZ010-120245-
Koochiching-
932 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KOOCHICHING
COUNTY...

At 932 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was 10 miles west of Birchdale,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, penny-size hail, torrential rainfall, and
frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Birchdale and Manitou.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building and away from windows until
this storm passes. Get off area lakes and seek shelter on shore in a
sturdy shelter or a hard-topped vehicle.

LAT...LON 4871 9438 4870 9435 4871 9429 4869 9426
      4866 9426 4865 9423 4864 9413 4864 9400
      4854 9393 4839 9443 4867 9443 4871 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 245DEG 31KT 4857 9432

 Miller

The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 8:58 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHKoochiching32 min
Jul 11, 9:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHKoochiching13 min
Jul 11, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHKoochiching38 min
Jul 11, 10:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHKoochiching40 min
Jul 11, 10:42 PM CDTTornado WarningDLHKoochiching33 min
Jul 11, 11:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHItasca, Koochiching50 min
Jul 11, 11:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass48 min
Jul 11, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca46 min
Jul 12, 12:18 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass, Crow Wing42 min
Jul 12, 12:42 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca, Saint Louis48 min
Jul 12, 12:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Crow Wing37 min
Jul 12, 12:59 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHSaint Louis31 min
Jul 12, 1:16 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass, Crow Wing29 min
Jul 12, 1:27 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Itasca, Saint Louis48 min
Jul 12, 1:33 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHSaint Louis42 min
Jul 12, 1:47 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHCrow Wing28 min
Jul 12, 1:56 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Crow Wing49 min
Jul 12, 2:14 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHCarlton16 min
Jul 12, 2:15 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHSaint Louis45 min
Jul 12, 2:19 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Crow Wing, Itasca4 hr
Jul 12, 2:22 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHSaint Louis38 min
Jul 12, 2:31 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningDLH47 min
Jul 12, 2:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Cass, Crow Wing49 min
Jul 12, 3:00 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Cass, Crow Wing, Pine, Saint Louis3 hr
Jul 12, 3:17 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningDLHItasca, Koochiching, Saint Louis9 hr
Jul 12, 3:34 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHPine26 min
Jul 12, 3:53 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHPine37 min
Jul 12, 4:07 AM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryDLH12 hr
Jul 12, 4:20 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHPine5 hr
Jul 12, 4:24 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHPine36 min
Jul 12, 5:57 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDLHAitkin, Crow Wing, Pine4 hr
Jul 12, 6:21 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHPine24 min
Jul 12, 6:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHPine13 min
Jul 12, 9:42 AM CDTAreal Flood WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Crow Wing, Pine6 hr
Jul 12, 11:45 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHChisago15 min
Jul 12, 4:01 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningDLHAitkin, Crow Wing42 hr
Jul 12, 8:31 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHBurnett29 min
Jul 12, 9:01 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHBurnett29 min
Jul 12, 9:30 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHBurnett30 min
Jul 12, 11:09 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHBurnett36 min
Jul 12, 5:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHBurnett30 min
Jul 12, 5:57 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHBurnett, Washburn33 min
Jul 12, 6:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHWashburn26 min
Jul 12, 6:52 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDLHWashburn23 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Minnesota, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.