Alert archive / Montana / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 235

June 28, 201812 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jun 28, 2018, 3:42 PM MDT for 12 counties in Montana. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 28, 2018, 3:42 PM MDT (21:42 UTC)
Expired
Jun 28, 2018, 11:00 PM MDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
4 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt

Counties Carter County, MT, Custer County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fallon County, MT, Garfield County, MT, McCone County, MT, Powder River County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Wibaux County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
70%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
70%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 28, 4:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZPowder River66 min
Jun 28, 4:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWGarfield, Petroleum64 min
Jun 28, 5:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Powder River62 min
Jun 28, 5:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWGarfield29 min
Jun 28, 5:30 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWMcCone60 min
Jun 28, 6:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWGarfield, McCone, Roosevelt, Valley66 min
Jun 28, 6:14 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter61 min
Jun 28, 6:31 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Garfield, McCone, Prairie59 min
Jun 28, 6:35 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Powder River, Rosebud55 min
Jun 28, 6:48 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Powder River, Rosebud57 min
Jun 28, 6:52 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter53 min
Jun 28, 6:54 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Richland66 min
Jun 28, 7:05 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, McCone, Richland, Roosevelt55 min
Jun 28, 7:06 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Custer, Fallon39 min
Jun 28, 7:11 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster64 min
Jun 28, 7:27 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedBYZCarter48 min
Jun 28, 7:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCuster, Powder River61 min
Jun 28, 7:33 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Prairie57 min
Jun 28, 7:41 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningBYZCuster3 hr
Jun 28, 7:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWRichland, Roosevelt48 min
Jun 28, 7:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZPowder River, Rosebud61 min
Jun 28, 7:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGGWDawson, Richland, Wibaux61 min
Jun 28, 8:11 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedBYZCarter16 min
Jun 28, 8:25 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Custer, Powder River65 min
Jun 28, 8:29 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZPowder River61 min
Jun 28, 8:53 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Treasure33 min
Jun 28, 9:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZCarter, Custer, Fallon, Powder River79 min
Jun 28, 10:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZBig Horn, Powder River, Rosebud57 min
Jun 28, 10:41 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBYZPowder River34 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2018-06-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2018-06-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -1 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

946 
WWUS20 KWNS 282139
SEL5  
SPC WW 282139
MTZ000-SDZ000-290500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern Montana
  Northwestern South Dakota

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
  1100 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph likely
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms, including a few supercells with
tornadoes and very large/damaging hail, are expected to develop over
the MT part of the watch area and ultimately move/spread into
portions of the Dakotas.  The threat for severe wind will increase
as activity interacts with very rich low-level moisture and congeals
into clusters this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 95 miles west of Miles City MT to 10
miles northeast of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW
233...WW 234...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.

...Edwards

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 28, 2:35 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Horn, Carter, Custer, Dawson, Fallon, Garfield and 7 more2 hr
Jun 28, 5:59 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Horn, Carter, Custer, Dawson, Fallon, Garfield and 7 more91 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Montana, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.