Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Billings, MT

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
353 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...

Have gone ahead and issued Tornado Watch 235 for Carter, Custer,
Fallon, Powder River, Rosebud, and Treasure counties, in effect
until 11 PM MDT. The previous forecast discussion is below. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat...

Heads up everyone...increased risk of severe storms today. Be
ready!

Mid level clouds were streaming in from the southwest with a few
thunderstorms already forming over the mountains and moving off
onto the foothills early this afternoon. Pockets of cumulus were
building over the area as well. Temperatures were in the 70s to
80s with humid conditions over the area with dewpoint temperatures
having risen to as high as the upper 60s to lower 70s over
eastern areas. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across
western areas this afternoon as an upper trough and cold front
approach, with showers and thunderstorm activity increasing across
central and eastern areas by this evening as the cold front
slides east. An isolated storm or two may develop over
southeastern Montana this afternoon, although with warm 700 mb
temps in place, there is a bit of a cap there that will need to be
overcome. With ample instability and good deep layer shear over
the area, severe thunderstorms are possible across the area this
afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for severe
thunderstorms over eastern areas. Main threats look to be large
hail and damaging winds. With precipitable water values in excess
of an inch and dewpoint temperatures near 70 degrees, heavy
rainfall is possible with any storm as well. Also, cannot rule out
a tornado in our far east, mainly east of Miles City and Broadus
where LCLs will be relatively low and as a surface low lifts out
of NE WY by early evening (i.e. where low level helicity should be
enhanced). Dew points well into the 60s are supportive of
tornadoes per local research.

Severe convection looks to exit eastern areas around midnight
with cooler and more stable air working into the region. Shower
and thunderstorm chances continue Friday through Saturday as an
upper trough settles over the region. With cooler temps aloft,
some snow showers are possible over the highest peaks of the
Beartooth Mountains on Friday. High temperatures will range from
the 60s to 70s on Friday, with highs in the 70s on Saturday. Low
temperatures will range from the 50s tonight, to the 40s and 50s
Friday and Saturday nights. STP

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Little in the way of changes to the extended forecast as model
solutions appear similar to previous runs.  Drier and warmer
conditions move in on zonal flow for Sunday into Monday. However,
the upper flow begins to turn SW for late Monday, promoting shower
and thunderstorm development into Monday night. SW flow continues
over the area through Thursday, as a trough remains over the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Energy moving in the southwesterly flow can
produce periods of isolated showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday.

High temperatures will generally be in the 70s on Sunday, then
rise to the 80s for Monday through Thursday. Arthur/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will increase across the area from W to E this
afternoon and evening. MVFR/IFR conditions will accompany the
storms, as well as possible large hail, wind gusts of 50 kt or
greater and heavy rainfall. A cold front will accompany the
precipitation, bringing a shift to gusty NNW surface winds from
KLVM to KBIL during the early evening, and a wind shift to the
rest of the area by 06z Friday. The activity will decrease over
the area after 06z Friday. Mountains will be obscured in showers
and thunderstorms tonight...and become more persistently obscured
over western mountains after 06z Friday. Otherwise...VFR will
prevail. Arthur/RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/068 052/073 055/079 056/081 056/081 058/085 057/083
    55/T    32/T    11/B    11/U    31/B    11/U    21/U
LVM 050/065 045/070 049/076 049/078 050/078 051/080 050/080
    77/T    32/T    11/B    12/T    22/T    21/U    10/U
HDN 056/070 051/074 053/080 055/083 056/083 057/086 057/085
    45/T    22/T    11/B    11/U    31/B    11/U    21/U
MLS 060/073 053/073 055/079 057/082 059/084 060/086 061/085
    73/T    22/T    11/B    11/U    41/B    11/U    11/U
4BQ 060/073 053/071 054/079 055/084 058/087 061/089 060/086
    45/T    33/T    11/B    11/U    11/U    10/U    11/U
BHK 059/074 051/072 052/077 054/082 057/085 059/087 059/083
    82/T    33/T    11/B    11/U    31/B    11/U    11/U
SHR 055/070 048/071 048/078 051/083 054/082 055/086 054/084
    25/T    43/T    11/B    10/U    11/U    10/U    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Tornado Watch 235 in effect until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR
      ZONES 30>33-36-37-58.
WY...None.

&&

weather.gov/billings

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Billings MT
357 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-282300-
Southern Wheatland-Musselshell-Treasure-Northern Rosebud-Custer-
Fallon-Northern Stillwater-Yellowstone-Powder River-Carter-
Southern Big Horn-Eastern Carbon-Northern Park-
Northern Sweet Grass-Golden Valley-Red Lodge Foothills-
Northern Big Horn-Southern Rosebud-Judith Gap-Paradise Valley-
Livingston Area-Beartooth Foothills-Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains-
Crazy Mountains-Northeast Bighorn Mountains-Sheridan Foothills-
357 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Montana...south central Montana...southeast Montana and north
central Wyoming.

* WHAT...Severe Thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Across the region.

* WHEN...This afternoon and evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Storms will have the potential to produce
  large hail and damaging winds, along with very heavy rainfall. A
  tornado is also possible, mainly east of Miles City and Broadus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is issued when hazardous weather could
impact the region within the next week. Be sure to stay tuned for
future updates as locations, timing, and impacts could change.
Begin preparations to mitigate any impacts that could result from
the hazardous weather.

&&

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