Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 175

June 13, 201840 counties in New York; 10 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 13, 2018, 4:06 PM EDT for 40 counties in New York; 10 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 13, 2018, 4:06 PM EDT (20:06 UTC)
Expired: Jun 13, 2018, 11:00 PM EDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 55 kt

All 50 counties

Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Erie County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Warren County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 4:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Erie	28 min
Jun 13, 5:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Livingston, Wyoming	70 min
Jun 13, 5:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Jefferson	78 min
Jun 13, 6:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	St. Lawrence	54 min
Jun 13, 6:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Steuben	38 min
Jun 13, 6:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Jefferson, Lewis	54 min
Jun 13, 7:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Hamilton, Herkimer	43 min
Jun 13, 7:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BTV	Franklin, St. Lawrence	56 min
Jun 13, 7:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Potter, Tioga	59 min
Jun 13, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Bradford	49 min
Jun 13, 7:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego	62 min
Jun 13, 7:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Cortland	51 min
Jun 13, 7:57 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Tioga	33 min
Jun 13, 8:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Tioga, Tompkins	50 min
Jun 13, 8:15 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BGM	Bradford	45 min
Jun 13, 8:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Herkimer, Montgomery, Schoharie	63 min
Jun 13, 8:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Wyoming	60 min
Jun 13, 8:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Tioga	59 min
Jun 13, 8:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Luzerne	33 min
Jun 13, 9:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan	65 min
Jun 13, 9:19 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BGM	Luzerne	26 min
Jun 13, 9:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Luzerne	50 min
Jun 13, 9:54 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BGM	Lackawanna, Luzerne	36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 173 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 543 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 121 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 3:30 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung, Chenango and 28 more	60 min
Jun 13, 7:12 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 32 more	93 min
Jun 13, 6:10 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler and 31 more	95 min
Jun 13, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair, Butler and 30 more	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2018 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.