Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will cause thunderstorms this evening,
then high pressure will build into the region, bringing drier
conditions to NY and PA for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM update...

SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 j/kg MLCape values pushing
across Michigan toward Lake Ontario. Low clouds have subdued
temperatures across NY and PA through mid-afternoon, but visible
satellite shows partial clearing headed our way for late-
afternoon through sunset.

Given the unimpressive convection currently observed over
Michigan, we pulled back a bit on thunderstorm coverage and
intensity through evening.

Rapid drying is forecast behind the front tonight into Thursday.
However, the proximity of the upper trough to our northeastern
forecast area suggests a chance of rain showers near the Western
Mohawk Valley tomorrow.

1015 AM update...

After beginning this morning with light precipitation and
cloudy skies, partial clearing is working across Michigan toward
NY and PA.

While full clearing is unlikely even with very dry air punching
in at the mid and high levels, MLCape values are already around
1000 j/kg over Central Michigan under partly sunny skies.
Combined with decent shear (35-40 kts from 0-6km), the supercell
composite has risen to 2 as of 13z.

Given we are on the verge of our longest days of the year, ample
time remains for the FA to destabilize. Severe thunderstorms
remain possible late in the day or early this evening.

New grids are published.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
245 pm update...
Fairly quiet weather conditions in the short term with a large upper
level ridge of high pressure building in from the west along with
the start of a very dry and warm air mass.

Temperatures Friday will be seasonal with highs topping out in the
mid 70s for most locations of central NY and ne PA. Low
dewpoints...into the upper 40s and lower 50s...will make conditions
comfortable. Clear skies Friday night/Sat morning along with light
winds will make for a cool night...temperatures falling into the
lower 50s.

On Saturday, temperatures will be warmer...into the lower 80s
with slightly higher humidity. There is some indication of a
convective complex riding ewd along the nrn periphery of the
upper ridge through the central/northern Great Lakes during the
day. If this does occur cloud cover will likely increase across
NY/PA later in the day Saturday with potentially some lingering
weak convection filling in from the west by late afternoon. At
this time model consensus keeps the precip out of the area until
at least Sunday. This pattern is very challenging given the
uncertainty with respect to where the convection will set up
along the edge of the ridge...so will need to keep an eye on how
this pattern eventually evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 pm update...
The upper ridge starts to get suppressed during the day Sunday and
into Monday as a trough of low pressure cuts through nrn/ern Canada.
The very warm and humid air mass will likely still remain over NY/PA
Sunday and Monday with temperatures into the mid to upper 80s...and
dew points in the mid to upper 60s. An east-west oriented boundary
separating the warm/humid air to the south and the cool/dry air to
the north will be the focal point for afternoon/evening convective
development. The front will sag to the south some time Monday into
Tuesday. There continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty regarding
the timing and placement of this front...so have decided to continue
with chance pops in the forecast through Tuesday. The pattern
appears to become drier and slightly cooler later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will spread thunderstorms across the terminals this
evening. Some of the storms will produce brief MVFR conditions, gusty
winds, and hail, with the best chance for thunderstorms between
22z and 0z.

Scattered MVFR ceilings this afternoon will give way to VFR
conditions ahead of the approaching frontal system. After the
storms, rapid drying is forecast.

Thursday will be partly sunny with VFR conditions and gusty west
winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...Mostly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT/MLJ
AVIATION...DJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
219 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-141830-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
219 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will impact Central New York and Northeast
Pennsylvania early this evening, generally between 6 and 10 pm. Some
of these storms may become severe, with localized damaging winds and
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
627 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

NYZ022-132315-
Steuben NY-
627 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...STEUBEN COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Belfast, or 15 miles northwest of Wellsville, moving east at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hornell, Bath, Campbell, Urbana, Canisteo, Lindley, Wayland, Painted
Post, Addison and Woodhull.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4253 7772 4254 7766 4257 7766 4258 7717
      4200 7705 4200 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 275DEG 47KT 4232 7809

MWG