Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 608
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2018, 1:13 PM MDT for 25 counties in North Dakota; 11 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2018, 1:13 PM MDT (19:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2018, 3:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 36 counties
Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stark County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Jones County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Potter County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1549 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 438 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 623 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
370
ACUS11 KWNS 011914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011913
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-012115-
Mesoscale Discussion 0608
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri Jun 01 2018
Areas affected...Much of North Dakota...western into central South
Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 011913Z - 012115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and become more
widespread with time. One or two WW issuances will likely be needed
later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is becoming increasingly agitated
across western North Dakota/South Dakota, and a few thunderstorms
have also initiated across northwestern North Dakota and vicinity.
Convective trends should continue to increase across the region in
response from an 1) approaching, mid-level shortwave trough over
Montana/Wyoming, 2) weak convective inhibition, and 3) moderate to
strongly unstable thermodynamic profiles (i.e., MUCAPE values
ranging from around 1500 J/kg in central North Dakota to 4000+ J/kg
in western South Dakota. Backed surface wind fields along and north
of an east-west-oriented warm front was also contributing to
enhanced low-level shear especially across North Dakota, and initial
surface-based development in this area will likely have some tornado
potential.
With time the magnitude of forcing and rapidly weakening inhibition
will result in widespread convective development, with mixed
linear/cellular modes and upscale growth possible with eastward
extent. All modes of severe are likely with this scenario,
including tornadoes (especially across North Dakota) and very large
(2"+ diameter) hail (areawide). Pending evolution of convective
trends, one or more WWs will likely be issued before 21Z.
..Squitieri/Cook/Guyer.. 06/01/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...
LAT...LON 44910251 45900301 46730352 47220402 48110407 48630373
48890311 48990264 49000171 48630079 48310007 47809977
47299937 46709914 46259908 45859944 45369969 44740014
43900040 43310049 43230082 43400138 44400206 44910251SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 6:00 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Burleigh, Emmons, Grant, Hettinger, Kidder and 3 more | 90 min |
| May 31, 8:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bowman, Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Sioux and 1 more | 57 min |
| Jun 1, 11:45 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, Hettinger, Slope and 1 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 1, 2:30 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Divide, Dunn, Emmons and 18 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 1, 3:04 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, Slope | 86 min |
| Jun 1, 5:02 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Divide, Dunn, Emmons and 15 more | 88 min |
| Jun 1, 1:53 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aurora, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Campbell, Charles Mix and 22 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 1, 5:32 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brule, Buffalo, Campbell and 22 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2018Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.