Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for Challenging flight weather to dominate West Central Texas
tonight and much of tomorrow. As an upper disturbance moves east,
across Texas, watch for a line of thunderstorms to sweep, from
west to east, across West Central Texas. The HRRR brings this line
into West Central Texas, from the west, around 06Z tonight. By
tomorrow afternoon, this line should be exiting West Central
Texas, and conditions should return to VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

UPDATE...

Just sent a forecast update for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
some of our central and western counties through 1:00 AM CDT
Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

Radar this afternoon shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over
Crockett County and the Concho Valley, while an area of light rain
was occurring over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Hi-res
models indicate that this evening will not be too active with
showers and storms, but considering that they have not caught on to
the activity already occurring in the Concho Valley, would not be
surprised if we continue to see scattered convection through the
evening hours in the western half of the forecast area, and so the
PoPs this evening reflect that possibility. Models remain in very
good agreement with a large line of thunderstorms and showers moving
through the region from west to east late tonight through early
Tuesday afternoon as a front gets pushed through. The additional
heavy rainfall associated with this activity will result in a higher
threat of flash flooding, so the Flash Flood Watch continues through
7 am Tuesday for the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards
Plateau and Kimble and Menard counties. There's also a threat for
flash flooding through Tuesday afternoon for the Heartland counties
and Mason county, so the Flash Flood Watch was expanded into those
areas. In addition, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms today
and tonight with any storms that develop... then a higher threat for
strong to severe storms will occur as that aforementioned line of
storms moves through late tonight into Tuesday morning. CAPE values
of 1000-1500 J/KG and 0-6 km bulk shear 40-50 kt support rotating
updrafts, and 0-1 km bulk shear of 30 kt shown by the NAM12 model
indicates the potential for a few embedded tornadoes within the line
of storms. Thunderstorm/shower activity should diminish from west to
east across the Tuesday morning and afternoon, with mostly dry
conditions likely by late Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The upper trough moves off to the east of the region Tuesday night
with drier air filtering into West Central Texas on Wednesday.
Expect mostly sunny skies on Wednesday and Thursday. PoP's
re-enter the forecast for the latter half of the week as another
upper level low deepens across the southwest U.S. There remains
model disagreement as to the timing of disturbances in the
southwest flow aloft and the evolution of the upper low...thus
will keep PoP's in the 20-40 percent range from Thursday through
the end of the week. Also, a strong cold front may dive southward
into west Texas by next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 65  77  53  73 /  90  80  10   0
San Angelo 	 65  79  55  78 /  90  80  10   0
Junction 	 69  80  57  81 /  80  90  20   0
Brownwood 	 67  77  56  76 /  70  90  20   0
Sweetwater 	 63  75  52  73 /  90  70  10   0
Ozona      	 65  77  54  78 /  90  70  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Callahan-Coke-
Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Menard-Nolan-
Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for Brown-Coleman-
Mason-McCulloch-San Saba.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-092100-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heavy rainfall and a threat for flash flooding will possible
across the area through tonight. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards
Plateau and Kimble and Menard counties until 7 AM Tuesday. A Flash
Flood Watch is also in effect until 3 PM Tuesday for the Heartland
counties and Mason county. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible mainly late tonight. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, although an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible into Tuesday
morning. Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will be the
primary concerns. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday morning. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main hazards, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late tonight and Tuesday morning.

SJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
545 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

TXZ065-066-127-082330-
Runnels TX-Coke TX-Taylor TX-
545 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COKE...SOUTHWESTERN
TAYLOR AND NORTHERN RUNNELS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bronte, or 13 miles south of Blackwell, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Fort Chadbourne around 555 PM CDT.
  Norton around 600 PM CDT.
  Wingate around 615 PM CDT.
  Winters around 630 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Wilmeth, Drasco, Lake
Winters Lake, Pumphrey and Shep.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 9974 3179 10026 3195 10037 3209 10022
      3209 10015 3214 10015 3224 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 241DEG 19KT 3190 10025

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
758 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

TXZ054-090145-
Nolan TX-
758 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOLAN COUNTY UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Champion Creek Reservoir, or 12 miles southeast of Colorado City,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Champion around 810 PM CDT.
  Roscoe around 815 PM CDT.
  Sweetwater around 830 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Highway 70 And Ranch Road 53, Lake Sweetwater, The Intersection Of
Ranch Road 608 And Highway 147, Camp Boothe Oaks, Us-
84 Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line and I-20 Near The Nolan-
Mitchell County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 229 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3252 10020 3208 10015 3208 10066 3253 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 234DEG 49KT 3224 10075

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
818 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

TXZ049-054-090200-
Fisher TX-Nolan TX-
818 PM CDT MON OCT 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FISHER COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 818 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Wastella, or 11 miles north of Roscoe, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Roby and Longworth around 830 PM CDT.
  Sylvester around 835 PM CDT.
  Mccaulley around 840 PM CDT.
  Hamlin around 850 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Us-84 Near The Nolan-
Fisher County Line, Gannon, Hitson, Us-180 Near The Fisher-
Scurry County Line, Busby and Capitola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3252 10015 3251 10066 3273 10067 3276 10066
      3277 10066 3296 10065 3296 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 234DEG 49KT 3261 10052