Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

.Discussion...

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon and Tonight...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 continues in effect for all of the
Big Country area along/north of I-20, until 9 PM CDT. A new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch (#20) is in effect for much of the Concho
Valley, along with Schleicher and Crockett Counties, until 2 AM
CDT Tuesday. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are
occurring at mid-afternoon across the northern and western Big
Country, ahead of a dryline. The dryline extends from Fisher
County southwest to near Fort Stockton. Other thunderstorm
development is expected farther south along the dryline late this
afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
our northern and western counties this evening and early tonight,
with the convective activity overspreading much of the rest of
west-central Texas during the night. Moderate instability combined
with favorable vertical shear will support a large hail threat
for large hail and damaging winds across our area northwest of a
Brownwood to Sonora line. Very large hail (larger than golfball
size) is a threat across the Big Country area. With precipitable
water values of 1 to 1.5 inches (much above normal for late March)
and the possibility of training convection, will have a
possibility of localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, additional development of showers
and thunderstorms is expected. Some strong to severe storms will
be possible, with the main threat southeast of a Brownwood to
Sonora line. A cold front will move south into the Big Country
Tuesday evening, and make slow progress into our central counties
Tuesday night. A cooling trend in temperatures is expected Tuesday
through Wednesday.

An upper level low will develop over Arizona tonight, and then
track slowly east across southern New Mexico Tuesday night. This
system is progged to open into a trough move east into West Texas
on Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue
across our area on Wednesday, with rain chances shutting off as
the trough axis shifts east across our area.

Dry conditions are expected Thursday into the weekend. A weak
cold front progged to enter our northern counties Thursday
afternoon, with a stronger cold frontal passage for our forecast
area Saturday afternoon and night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 59  72  49  64 /  70  50  80  50
San Angelo 	 59  77  52  71 /  70  50  70  40
Junction 	 63  75  58  73 /  50  60  70  50
Brownwood 	 62  72  54  66 /  70  60  80  60
Sweetwater 	 58  72  49  64 /  70  50  70  40
Ozona      	 60  76  54  72 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
353 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-272100-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
353 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorm coverage will increase through this evening and
tonight across West Central Texas. Large hail and damaging
winds are possible, across the area northwest of of a Brownwood
to Sonora line. There is also an isolated tornado threat. The
highest hail threat, for golfball or larger size hail, is across
the area northwest of a Barnhart to Albany line late this
afternoon into tonight prior to Midnight. In addition to the
severe weather threat, heavy rainfall is likely and could lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially
Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The main hazards will be
dangerous lightning, damaging winds, and large hail. Heavy
rainfall will be possible, and this may lead to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is ongoing this afternoon and may be needed
through much of tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
345 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

TXZ098-099-262130-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-
345 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND CENTRAL
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 345 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Stamford Marina, or 15 miles southeast of Haskell, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Throckmorton around 410 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
US-183 And US-283 and The Intersection Of US-380 And Highway 222.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3314 9895 3308 9895 3297 9949 3304 9960
      3340 9922 3340 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 229DEG 40KT 3304 9950

KRD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
355 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

TXZ098-113-262145-
Haskell TX-Jones TX-
355 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HASKELL AND NORTHERN
JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Neinda, or near Hamlin, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Haskell, Stamford, Paint Creek and Lake Stamford Marina around 430
  PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tuxedo.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3304 9946 3302 9947 3295 9959 3296 9961
      3294 9961 3272 10003 3285 10015 3289 10015
      3296 10006 3296 9999 3302 9999 3327 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 229DEG 40KT 3286 10003

KRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service San Angelo Tx
402 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             8 S ROBY                32.63N 100.38W
03/26/2018  E1.75 INCH       FISHER             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURE RECEIVED ON TWITTER VIA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1800024

AJW