Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1256 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018

.UPDATE...
The forecast has been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #19.
This Watch is in effect for all of the Big country area along/
north of I-20, until 9 PM CDT. PoPs look okay at this point
and were not changed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1242 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

MVFR cigs have lingered across the central and southern terminals
through early this afternoon, with thunderstorms developing near
the KABI terminal by mid afternoon. Other storms will become more
widespread overnight and may effect many of the terminals starting
about midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 602 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus will result in MVFR ceilings at the southern 3 sites this
morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid to late morning.
Isolated thunderstorms may affect KABI later this morning, but
confidence is too low to include in the current TAF package.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening into
early Tuesday morning, mainly affecting KABI and KSJT. A few of
these storms may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018/

SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon into the
overnight hours...

High resolution models are indicating a weak shortwave trough in the
southwest flow aloft, tracking across the region late this morning
into early this afternoon. This may aid in the development of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, initially across
the northern Concho Valley, then spreading north and east across the
Big Country. Although a few strong storms are possible, little in
the way of severe weather is expected with this first round of
convection.

Late this afternoon a dryline will be situated across the western
border of our forecast area. An increasingly unstable environment
will develop by mid to late afternoon. An upper level trough/low
across the Desert Southwest will slowly approach West Central Texas
this evening, with large scale ascent encroaching on the region.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the dryline in our far western counties late this
afternoon or early this evening, as the capping inversion erodes.
This activity is forecast to become more numerous as we head through
the evening hours. Initially supercells will be possible, with
storms becoming more linear by late in the evening into early
Tuesday morning. A very unstable environment along with bulk shear
values above 60 knots for much of the area will lead to the
possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms. The main hazards look
to be damaging winds and large hail, although a tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Extensive stratus this morning will dissipate by late morning or
early afternoon. Highs today will be well above seasonal normals, in
the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

Daniels

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)

Large hail possible Tuesday afternoon and night...

Most of the convection from Monday night will be impacting the
eastern portions of the region on Tuesday.  Meanwhile, a dryline
from Sterling City to Ozona on Tuesday afternoon and evening will
interact with plenty of moisture to its east and a cold front moving
south into the area. Latest soundings showed the potential for
elevated severe storms as MUCAPE Values ranged from 1000-1500 J/KG.
If some of the storms can become rooted in the boundary layer, then
a few damaging wind gusts may be possible. For this reason, SPC
has a slight risk for severe storms stretching along and south of
a line from Sterling City to San Angelo to Brownwood for Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

Mostly showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue Wednesday
into early Thursday morning as Gulf and Pacific moisture is forced
up and over the frontal boundary in addition to lift associated
with the the upper level trough. As the main upper trough axis
moves across Wednesday night, the rain should end by Thursday
morning from west to east. A cool surface high will settle across
West Central Texas through Friday. High temperatures on Thursday
will be mostly in the 60s and 70s. Highs on Friday will climb into
the 70s. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will be in the 40s.

(Saturday through Sunday)

The cool surface high will shift east allowing a return of warm, moist
air from the gulf by the upcoming weekend, resulting in afternoon
highs climbing back into the 80s by Saturday. By Sunday, a cold
front may reach the Big Country bringing cooler afternoon highs in
the 70s, while 80s continue elsewhere.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 82  59  72  49 /  40  80  50  80
San Angelo 	 84  59  76  52 /  30  70  50  70
Junction 	 85  63  78  58 /  20  50  60  80
Brownwood 	 83  62  72  54 /  30  70  60  80
Sweetwater 	 83  59  70  47 /  30  60  50  70
Ozona      	 83  60  76  54 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
232 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

TXZ113-127-262000-
Jones TX-Taylor TX-
232 PM CDT MON MAR 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN
TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Merkel, or 16 miles west of Abilene, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Noodle around 235 PM CDT.
  Hawley around 250 PM CDT.
  Anson around 300 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Hodges, Lake Fort
Phantom Hill, Truby and Stith.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 264 and 277.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3265 9961 3263 9961 3240 9995 3250 10013
      3282 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 213DEG 31KT 3252 10000

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>