River Flood Warning 4, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
655 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will affect mainly
the southern terminals this morning, where MVFR ceilings and
some reduction in visibilities can be expected. VFR conditions
are expected later this afternoon, with a few showers and storms
possible. Due to coverage uncertainties this afternoon, will only
mention VCSH at this time. Deteriorating conditions expected
overnight as convection becomes more widespread across the area
towards the latter part of the forecast period. Carrying thunder
at all terminals after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 AM CDT Tuesday as
ongoing heavy rain is possible. A broad area of heavy rain across
Junction and Sonora at 316 AM CDT will continue to move north this
morning before weakening. A brief break in the rain is possible
late this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Then,
another round of storms is expected to kick in this evening and
Tuesday morning. Flood concerns are still high given the recent
rain and the higher potential for runoff. Lastly, a severe weather
threat is expected for this evening and overnight as well. Large
hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are all possible in
addition to the flood concerns.

LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)

As mentioned in the short term discussion, flooding and severe
weather remains a distinct possibility for Tuesday morning. Then,
drier conditions are expected for Tuesday evening through Thursday
before another upper level disturbance moves through. In addition,
the remnants of tropical cyclone Sergio could move across the
Desert Southwest over the weekend further adding to the rain
chances. However, rain chances will be kept fairly low due to the
uncertainty in the movement of Sergio's remnants.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 79  65  76  54 /  60  90  90  10
San Angelo 	 81  65  79  55 /  70  90  70  10
Junction 	 78  69  80  59 /  80  80  80  20
Brownwood 	 79  68  76  57 /  50  70  90  10
Sweetwater 	 77  62  75  54 /  70  90  70  10
Ozona      	 77  64  77  55 /  80  90  70  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Callahan-Coke-
Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Menard-Nolan-
Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

99/99/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
522 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-091030-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
522 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall and a threat for flash flooding will possible
across the area through tonight. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and northern Edwards
Plateau until 7 AM Tuesday. In addition, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible mainly this evening and overnight.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, although
an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will be possible into Tuesday
morning. Heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding will
be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.