Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and a thunderstorms will lift north across
the southern terminals through early morning, with little if
any convection expected at KABI and KSJT through daybreak.
Stratus with MVFR ceilings will develop across the area after
09Z and linger through mid to late moring before lifting to
VFR. A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible across
the terminals during the day but coverage should be limited.
Convection will become more widespread across the terminals
Monday night but most of the activity will not affect the
terminals until after 09/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather to return later tonight.
Stratus will return later tonight and create MVFR ceilings. Plus,
showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility. But, confidence
regarding location and timing not high enough to include any
thunder this forecast cycle. By tomorrow afternoon, conditions
should return to VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Afternoon water vapor imagery depicts the powerful upper level low
spinning over the Great Basin region. Meanwhile, a warm front was
draped across the northern Big Country and will continue lifting
northward overnight. Current radar imagery shows scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Permian Basin, western
Concho Valley, and northern Edwards Plateau. Additional convective
development will be possible the remainder of the afternoon and
evening, as shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow aloft continue
to move overhead. A stronger storm cannot be ruled out given MLCAPE
in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. However, the overall severe threat is
low. The main highlight this evening and into tomorrow will be the
continued threat for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.
Model guidance continues to develop scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms overnight and into Monday as the upper trough
begins to eject to the east toward west Texas. Given the moist
airmass in place (PWAT values of 1.5-1.7 inches) and the rains
received last night, have elected to extend the flash flood watch
through Tuesday morning. Will also add our I-10 counties to the
watch, as models show a strong QPF signal here overnight. In
addition, a few strong to severe storms will again be possible on
Monday afternoon/evening given moderate CAPE and bulk shear
values.

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)

A front will be slowly dragged from west to east across West
Central Texas Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, while ample
Gulf moisture (precipitable water of 1.5-1.7 inches) remains in
place east of the front. With more than sufficient moisture and
lift from the front, widespread rain and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Due to the
somewhat slow movement of the front and possible training of
showers and thunderstorms, in addition to already saturated ground
in many places, there will be an increased threat of flash
flooding. 0-6 km bulk shear of 35-50 kt and CAPE around 1500 J/KG
could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds
and large hail the main threats. Dry air moving in behind the
front will end the rain chances Tuesday night and early Wednesday
morning. Expect highs in the upper 70s to around 80 on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

An upper level trough moving into the Central and Northern Plains
may grab a hold of some Gulf moisture on Thursday, with models
showing some rain possible across our western counties that day.
Then the remnants of tropical cyclone Sergio in the East Pacific
looks to move into the Desert Southwest Friday and Saturday, but
the GFS and ECMWF models differ in the placement of the remnant
circulation and moisture. Nevertheless, there are chances for
additional precipitation Friday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 79  66  76  56 /  70  80  90  20
San Angelo 	 81  66  79  55 /  70  70  80  10
Junction 	 80  70  80  59 /  60  50  90  30
Brownwood 	 80  69  78  58 /  50  60  90  30
Sweetwater 	 77  62  74  54 /  70  80  70   5
Ozona      	 76  66  77  56 /  60  70  70   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Callahan-Coke-
Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Menard-Nolan-
Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

99/99/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-082015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
302 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across West
Central Texas this evening and tonight. Heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding will be the main concern. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for the Big Country, Concho Valley, and
northern Edwards Plateau until 7 AM Tuesday. In addition, a few of
the storms this evening may become strong and approach severe
levels. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible again on Monday. Heavy rainfall
and potential flash flooding will continue to be the primary
concerns. There will also be a risk of severe thunderstorms as
well. Again, large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.