Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
633 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Very challenging flight weather will continue for much of today.
Look for MVFR to IFR ceilings, with occasional reduced visibility.
Expect conditions to improve later this afternoon, as showers and
thunderstorms move into east Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Possible Flash Flooding...

What remains of Tropical Storm Sergio will combine with favorable
dynamics aloft to create conditions ripe for possible flash
flooding. The main threat area is mainly north of our Interstate
10 corridor. There, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through
1 PM CDT this afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts in the range
of 1 to 3 inches are likely, with a few locations possibly
receiving an inch or so more. Also, severe thunderstorms are
possible, with large hail and damaging winds topping the list of
primary threats.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

..More Rain with Possible Flash Flooding...

With the main focus on the short term this forecast cycle, the
long term didn't warrant major changes. Ample moisture, along with
favorable upper dynamics, will combine with a strong cold front to
produce conditions very favorable for additional rainfall. Models
indicate surface winds, from the north, will continue into at
least mid week. Thus, temperatures until then will likely be well
below usual temperatures for October. Plus, with cold air near the
surface, isentropic upglide will add to the mix to enhance the
potential for additional rainfall, especially into Tuesday. For
mid week through Friday, surface flow from the southeast returns,
and temperatures warm. However, persistent moisture and continued
flow aloft, from the southwest, will prolong conditions favorable
for additional rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  58  73  38 /  90  10  50  80
San Angelo 	 82  62  78  42 /  70  10  40  80
Junction 	 83  67  82  46 /  70  10  30  90
Brownwood 	 77  62  77  41 /  90  20  60  80
Sweetwater 	 69  58  71  35 /  80  10  50  70
Ozona      	 82  64  79  43 /  40  10  30  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Brown-
Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
357 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-140900-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
357 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential for high rainfall amounts will continue, across all
of West Central Texas. The main hazard is flash flooding. However,
some thunderstorms may produce large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A strong cold front will move, from north to south, across West
Central Texas, Sunday night into Monday. This front will further
enhance the potential for high rainfall amounts. Thus, the
possibility for flash flooding will continue, at least through
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
717 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ065-066-072-073-139-154-131315-
Runnels TX-Tom Green TX-Coleman TX-Coke TX-McCulloch TX-Concho TX-
717 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COKE...WESTERN
COLEMAN...EASTERN TOM GREEN...RUNNELS AND CONCHO COUNTIES UNTIL 815
AM CDT...

At 717 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Norton to near Christoval. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Hatchel around 725 AM CDT.
  Ballinger around 730 AM CDT.
  Benoit around 740 AM CDT.
  Talpa around 745 AM CDT.
  Ivie Reservoir Near Concho Park Marina around 755 AM CDT.
  Leaday around 800 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include The Intersection Of
Ranch Road 1929 And Ranch Road 2134, The Intersection Of Us-
87 And Ranch Road 2134, Live Oak, Wilmeth, The Intersection Of Ranch
Road 380 And Ranch Road 381, Drasco, Vick, The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 765, Pumphrey and The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1929.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3208 9953 3109 9961 3109 10059 3208 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 292DEG 38KT 3180 10010 3115 10047

Woodward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
809 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0751 AM     DOWNBURST        3 NNE KNICKERBOCKER     31.31N 100.60W
10/13/2018                   TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WINDS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
855 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ072-073-131430-
Tom Green TX-Concho TX-
855 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN AND
NORTHWESTERN CONCHO COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

At 853 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wall, or 8 miles east of San Angelo, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mereta and Eola around 905 AM CDT.
  Lowake around 910 AM CDT.
  Paint Rock around 920 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Vick and Harriet.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for west central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3112 10055 3141 10042 3160 10031 3159 10023
      3158 10023 3157 9989 3110 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 239DEG 49KT 3140 10032

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
916 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ128-139-140-131500-
Callahan TX-Coleman TX-Brown TX-
916 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALLAHAN...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM
CDT...

At 915 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burkett, or 14 miles northeast of Coleman, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Grosvenor around 920 AM CDT.
  Cross Cut around 925 AM CDT.
  Byrds around 930 AM CDT.
  May around 940 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Echo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for west central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3180 9929 3206 9943 3229 9912 3208 9912
      3208 9893 3190 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 252DEG 39KT 3197 9924

Woodward

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