Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS San Angelo, TX

215 
WGUS74 KSJT 211445
FFSSJT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
945 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

TXC235-451-211454-
/O.CAN.KSJT.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180921T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tom Green TX-Irion TX-
945 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL TOM GREEN AND EASTERN IRION
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3064 10125 3107 10107 3108 10071 3064 10087

$$

TXC105-413-435-211615-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180921T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Schleicher TX-Crockett TX-Sutton TX-
945 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR
WESTERN SCHLEICHER...NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT AND NORTHWESTERN SUTTON
COUNTIES...

At 944 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Ozona, The Intersection Of Us-190 And Ranch Road 1828, I-
10 Near The Crockett-Sutton County Line and Us-190 Near The Crockett-
Sutton County Line.

LAT...LON 3064 10125 3107 10107 3108 10071 3064 10087

$$

SAK/JW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
645 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for very challenging flight weather, across all of West
Central Texas, through 12Z Saturday. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to produce very heavy rainfall; thus, visibilities
and ceilings will likely vary greatly and rapidly, between MVFR to
IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 451 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Flash Flooding Possible...

This rain event, which has been the focus of numerous discussions,
over the last several days, will mature over West Central Texas
today and tonight. Models remain fairly consistent with the key
players of this event: 1) moist air, 2) upper dynamics, and 3)
surface forcing. Models continue to present precipitable water
numbers in the 1.5 to 2 inches range, for today and tonight, with
a gradual decrease, from west to east, after midnight tonight. An
upper trough, currently located to the west, will enhance the
upward ascent of this very moist air. Plus, a cold front will
also provide some forcing, as it moves south, across West Central
Texas, late this afternoon and tonight. Models place the greatest
QPF amounts over the Concho Vally, Heartland, and Big Country, for
these two periods. Thus, continuing the Flash Flood Watch, for
those areas, looks good. Rainfall accumulation amounts, across
the watch area, in the 1 to 3 inches range will be common, with
amounts over 4 inches possible, through sunrise Saturday morning.
Clearly, the greatest threat is flash flooding; nevertheless,
potential river flooding remains a concern, as well.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

..Continued Rain Potential...

The potential for additional rain, across West Central Texas,
dominates the long term forecast. Although rain chances decrease,
during the day Saturday, as the upper trough moves east, some
lower rain chances remain into the start of this next work week.
Then, models indicate a couple of cold fronts next week will
continue to provide the potential for rain well into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 79  62  69  62 /  90  80  50  30
San Angelo 	 82  64  71  61 /  80  80  40  20
Junction 	 82  68  72  62 /  70  80  60  20
Brownwood 	 82  67  71  62 /  80  80  60  30
Sweetwater 	 77  60  69  62 /  90  70  40  20
Ozona      	 81  64  72  61 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
410 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-220915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
410 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and a few thunderstorms expected to continue today and
tonight. The primary hazard will be locally heavy rainfall, which
may lead to flash flooding. Dangerous lightning will also be a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of West
Central Texas through early Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Rain and a few thunderstorms should continue on Saturday, and
begin to decrease during the day. A slight chance of thunderstorms
continue Sunday through Tuesday, while a chance of thunderstorms
return on Wednesday and Thursday. Main hazards will be lightning
and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.