Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS San Angelo, TX

531 
WGUS74 KSJT 211155
FFSSJT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

TXC105-235-211415-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180921T1415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crockett TX-Irion TX-
655 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT AND SOUTHWESTERN IRION COUNTIES...

At 653 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is expected to begin 
shortly. Heavy rainfall continues across the warned area, which has 
resulted in 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts 
of 1 to 2 inches are possible, which will result in flash flooding, 
especially across roadways, low lying areas, and low water 
crossings. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Ozona, Barnhart, The Intersection Of Us 190 And Highway 163, Ft
Lancaster, The Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 405 and The
Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 290.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 10166 3065 10169 3065 10175 3066 10176
      3105 10150 3108 10145 3108 10127 3119 10127
      3140 10095 3062 10125

$$

Daniels

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
451 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...Flash Flooding Possible...

This rain event, which has been the focus of numerous discussions,
over the last several days, will mature over West Central Texas
today and tonight. Models remain fairly consistent with the key
players of this event: 1) moist air, 2) upper dynamics, and 3)
surface forcing. Models continue to present precipitable water
numbers in the 1.5 to 2 inches range, for today and tonight, with
a gradual decrease, from west to east, after midnight tonight. An
upper trough, currently located to the west, will enhance the
upward ascent of this very moist air. Plus, a cold front will
also provide some forcing, as it moves south, across West Central
Texas, late this afternoon and tonight. Models place the greatest
QPF amounts over the Concho Vally, Heartland, and Big Country, for
these two periods. Thus, continuing the Flash Flood Watch, for
those areas, looks good. Rainfall accumulation amounts, across
the watch area, in the 1 to 3 inches range will be common, with
amounts over 4 inches possible, through sunrise Saturday morning.
Clearly, the greatest threat is flash flooding; nevertheless,
potential river flooding remains a concern, as well.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

...Continued Rain Potential...

The potential for additional rain, across West Central Texas,
dominates the long term forecast. Although rain chances decrease,
during the day Saturday, as the upper trough moves east, some
lower rain chances remain into the start of this next work week.
Then, models indicate a couple of cold fronts next week will
continue to provide the potential for rain well into late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 79  62  69  62 /  90  80  50  30
San Angelo 	 82  64  71  61 /  80  80  40  20
Junction 	 82  68  72  62 /  70  80  60  20
Brownwood 	 82  67  71  62 /  80  80  60  30
Sweetwater 	 77  60  69  62 /  90  70  40  20
Ozona      	 81  64  72  61 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday
morning for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
410 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-220915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
410 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and a few thunderstorms expected to continue today and
tonight. The primary hazard will be locally heavy rainfall, which
may lead to flash flooding. Dangerous lightning will also be a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of West
Central Texas through early Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Rain and a few thunderstorms should continue on Saturday, and
begin to decrease during the day. A slight chance of thunderstorms
continue Sunday through Tuesday, while a chance of thunderstorms
return on Wednesday and Thursday. Main hazards will be lightning
and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.