Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
714 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Clusters of intense tstms cold pooling swd across I-20. with
storms currently at the kshv and kggg terminals, and about to
enter the kmlu and ktyr terminals. Wind gusts to 40 to 50 kts,
large hail to near golfball size, torrential rain and dense ltg
strikes occurring in stronger storms. Frontal boundary associated
with these storms will bring winds shifting from south to n-ne at
15 to 25 kts and a few gusts over 30 kts possible by early Sat
mrng as stg inversion sets up postfrontal. Winds may finally
subside to around 10 kts by 07/21z. Cigs to lower behind boundary
to low mvfr to possible ifr. These cigs will then only slowly lift
back to high mvfr to possible low vfr by Sat aftn and will remain
out of the north./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch has been issued this afternoon for all of our NE TX
counties, far southern row of SW AR counties and all of our N LA
parishes. The watch is valid through 11 PM CDT this evening.

Very active period is underway this afternoon as tstms have begun
to rapidly fire along the warm frontal zone, which extends along
the Red River in NE TX/SE OK, tailing back to the SE near TXK and
ELD in south AR. These storms have been quick to intensify with a
significant hail potential as well as the threat of damaging wind
gusts. Due to the very warm and unstable air mass in place south
of the warm front, discrete supercells are a distinct possibility
with the threat of isolated tornadoes. Thus, the decision on the
Tornado Watch was made easier based on this thinking. Our 18Z SHV
sounding indicated the capping inversion still holding in the mid
levels, but further erosion of the cap has taken place with sfc
heating combined with cooling aloft due to the shortwave shifting
into the region. Meanwhile, forecast soundings show significant
sfc-based CAPE around 3000 J/kg in the warm sector this afternoon
combined with mid-level lapse rates around 8.5C/km. Deep layer is
also around 40 kts, plenty sufficient for rotating mesocyclones.
As the event further evolves this evening, the trend is expected
to be toward more of a damaging wind threat as the cold front
advances farther into the region with a developing QLCS which is
likely to intensify closer to the I-20 corridor. This linear
complex may result in severe straight-line wind gusts, possibly
exceeding 60 mph. This looks to be a potentially significant and
widespread threat, mainly across east Texas and north Louisiana.

The severe threat is expected to wane as we approach midnight with
the current Tornado Watch expiring at 11 PM CDT. The other concern
will be for heavy rainfall with this line of storms which may
result in some isolated flash flooding. Post-frontal convection
will continue through Saturday morning, but the threat of severe
weather and flooding will be ending with frontal passage across
our southern sections by midnight if not before. A very chilly and
raw day will follow on Saturday with highs only in the 40s and 50s,
a far cry from the spring-like temperatures we have experienced
so far this month. In fact, some areas in our northern counties
over SE OK and SW AR are likely to fall to the freezing mark by
Sunday morning so a freeze warning may be needed for these areas
with future forecasts.

A modest warm-up will follow on Sunday with returning southeast
winds and high temperatures reaching back into the 60s. Another
cold front will shift south toward the region early the new week
with a slight chance of showers, but limited moisture return will
prevent widespread rainfall. The remainder of next week looks
mostly dry and seasonal with high temperatures climbing back into
the 70s and 80s. Our next rain chances will likely hold off until
late Friday into next weekend with another cold front arriving on
Saturday.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  50  37  64 / 100  30   0   0
MLU  45  48  35  63 / 100  50   0   0
DEQ  40  51  32  62 /  80  20   0   0
TXK  42  49  34  61 /  90  30   0   0
ELD  39  47  31  62 / 100  30   0   0
TYR  46  51  38  65 /  90  20   0   0
GGG  47  51  36  64 / 100  30   0   0
LFK  56  58  39  69 /  90  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071715-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will gradually become more widespread and increase
in intensity across our northern areas early this afternoon, with
a few damaging wind gusts possible. The threat for severe storms
will increase significantly as we move into the mid to late
afternoon and evening hours, as a cold front brings these storms
southward across the entire region. Damaging winds and large hail
will be the primary threats, but a few tornadoes and even some
localized flooding cannot be ruled out. The threat for severe
storms will gradually diminish during the overnight hours, as the
cold front moves away from our area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed by late this
afternoon through this evening.

19

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