River Flood Warning 166, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
627 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.AVIATION...

For the 27/12z TAF period, MVFR/VFR conditions across the region
this morning as an area of t-storms continues to push eastward through
the region along and ahead of a cold front. Very strong gradient
winds from the S/SE ahead of the front will average around 20 kts
with gusts as high as 35-40 kts at KMLU. These winds have become
VRB near 5 kts behind the convection and will veer SW, then W/NW
as the line of convection moves through followed by the cold front
during the remainder of the morning hours into the early
afternoon. As showers and thunderstorms gradually shift east,
look for improving conditions as cigs/vsbys quickly improve with
VFR conditions expected to return to all sites by late afternoon
as the cold front exits the region. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/

On going line of Thunderstorms has as much rumbly thunder behind
as along the leading edge of the squall line which now extends
across deep E TX in Toledo Bend country into NE LA. Movement has
slowed a bit and the back edge of this rain area is still not
moved into our cwa. The HRRR looks pretty good on pushing the rain
area Eastward all morning and early afternoon, pushing clear of
our remaining parishes in central LA by mid afternoon or 21Z.

The WCN will be run again to clear the remaining SVR watch 446 at
the top of the hour with no further discussion. And the new TOR
447 will be addressed in the coming hours with Eastward
progression as far as cancellations. The gusty winds only
continue ahead of squall line and as such the lake has been scaled
back.

Rain totals have been 2 to 3 plus so far with a good inch
everywhere on the ground or yet to come. Storm damage reports
will likewise be updated all morning with first light bringing a
new perspective. The back edge of the clouds will swing in
overhead during the afternoon with some sunshine and still a warm
day. The associated cold front with this very large system will be
along overnight from midnight at Tyler to daybreak for Lufkin and
Monroe. More seasonal 50s will trend colder with more rainfall
coming back to fast. /24/

LONG TERM.../Friday night through Wednesday/

Dry conditions late Friday as high pressure continues to build into
the region in wake of a cold front.  Winds will remain out of
northeast between 5-10kts. Temperatures should bottom out late
Friday/Saturday morning near freezing north on Interstate 30 and in
the upper 30s/lower 40s across Deep East Texas/Central Louisiana.

By Saturday, an upper level trough across the Rockies will amplify
and a large area of high pressure will develop across the Caribbean.
Over our region, in between both systems, southwesterly flow aloft
will develop, as an inverted trough of low pressure from the western
Gulf of Mexico moves northeastward into the area. This will result
in a large area of precip developing across the region through the
weekend.

Rain will continue across the region on Monday, as the upper level
trough axis slides from the Southwest across the Texas Panhandle and
the surface inverted trough makes a northward push into the ArkLaTex
region. By late Monday, the inverted trough/sfc low will lift out
the region and a cold front will sweep through bringing the rain to
an end.

With the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will remain cool with
highs struggling to reach 50 over the weekend. Below normal
temperatures will continue through the middle of the week as morning
lows will approach freezing areawide on Wednesday and highs will
struggle to reach 50 degrees.  /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  41  56  38 / 100   0   0  10
MLU  71  45  59  39 / 100   0   0  10
DEQ  67  33  51  31 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  67  38  52  34 / 100   0   0   0
ELD  66  39  55  34 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  67  38  53  36 /  40   0   0  10
GGG  68  39  55  36 /  90   0   0  10
LFK  70  41  59  41 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for LAZ004>006-
     011>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
158 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071-LAZ001-002-010-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166-271800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Caddo-Bossier-De Soto-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-
Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-
Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
158 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until Noon on Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will become numerous overnight across
the region and some of these could become severe with damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes the probable threats. In
addition to the severe weather threat, excessive heavy rainfall
will be possible with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible
with isolated higher amounts until the storm system moves east of
the region on Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
move back into the forecast for this weekend through at least New
Years Eve. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms do not
appear likely, nor does the threat for excessive heavy rainfall,
but these threats will continue to be monitored with future
forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will likely be needed later this
evening into the overnight hours with the threat of Severe
Thunderstorms.

ARZ072-073-LAZ003>006-011>014-017>022-TXZ167-271800-
Columbia-Union-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Red River-Bienville-
Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
158 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect until Noon on Thursday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will increase
across the region from the south and west later this evening into
the overnight hours. While an isolated strong or severe
thunderstorm is certainly possible tonight, a more widespread
damaging wind threat will likely materialize near or just after
sunrise Thursday Morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes will likely accompany
a line of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday Morning before
the storms exit the region Thursday Afternoon. In addition to the
severe weather threat, excessive heavy rainfall will be possible
with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible with isolated
higher amounts until the storm system moves east of the region on
Thursday afternoon.

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will
move back into the forecast for this weekend through at least New
Years Eve. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorms do not
appear likely, nor does the threat for excessive heavy rainfall,
but these threats will continue to be monitored with future
forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will likely not be needed overnight
but could be needed early Thursday for the threat of Severe
Thunderstorms.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W SHREVEPORT          32.46N 93.87W
12/27/2018                   CADDO              LA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HERMOSA DRIVE IN SHREVEPORT
            REPORTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
606 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

LAZ005-006-012>014-019-021-271245-
Caldwell LA-Winn LA-Bienville LA-Lincoln LA-Ouachita LA-Union LA-
Jackson LA-
606 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...
JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL UNION...WESTERN OUACHITA...SOUTHEASTERN
BIENVILLE...LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN WINN PARISHES UNTIL 645 AM
CST...

At 605 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles south of Gibsland to 8 miles southwest
of Jonesboro to 11 miles west of Winnfield. Movement was northeast at
65 mph.

Strong winds of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ruston, Claiborne, West Monroe, Grambling, Winnfield, Jonesboro,
Brownsville-Bawcom, Brownsville-Bawcomville, Farmerville, Choudrant,
Simsboro, Chatham, Hodge, Goldonna, North Hodge, Vienna, Dodson, East
Hodge, Lucky and Calvin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for north central
and northwestern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3227 9217 3179 9287 3194 9288 3195 9287
      3195 9288 3210 9290 3235 9307 3285 9242
      3262 9216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1205Z 229DEG 55KT 3232 9299 3216 9282 3190 9283

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

LAZ017>020-TXZ167-271315-
Winn LA-Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-Sabine LA-Sabine TX-
614 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRANT...
NATCHITOCHES...EASTERN SABINE...WESTERN WINN PARISHES IN NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM
CST...

At 614 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Natchitoches to 11 miles southeast of Many
to near Toledo Bend Dam. Movement was east northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Natchitoches, Winnfield, Many, Montgomery, Florien, Provencal,
Natchez, Clarence, Calvin, Fisher, Robeline, Atlanta, Kisatchie,
Cloutierville, Melrose, Bellwood, Chopin, St. Maurice, Clear Lake and
Gorum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for north central
and northwestern Louisiana...and eastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3117 9371 3146 9354 3176 9339 3206 9258
      3164 9272 3137 9292 3137 9295 3135 9295
      3137 9303 3136 9339 3128 9344 3128 9353
      3124 9356 3123 9354 3119 9355 3117 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1214Z 244DEG 29KT 3173 9318 3148 9331 3118 9361

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REDWATER                33.36N 94.25W
12/26/2018                   BOWIE              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN COUNTY-WIDE.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     HAIL             1 WNW WHITEHOUSE        32.23N 95.23W
12/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

25

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