River Flood Warning 1, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
334 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Airmass has saturated in low lvls and elevated instability has
been spawning increased convection. Meanwhile, frzg lvls lowering
with elevated trough along and north of I-20, where discrete storms
with high reflectivities bringing an uptick in both ltg activity and
hail reports. Although have lowered eve pops to likely this
evening, and high end chance to the south, have added heavy
rainfall to the fcst with the mean flow contributing to possible
cell training. High pops thru the overnight, with pops starting to
lower north of I-30 after midnight. With temps falling just to the
frzg mark over northern portions of McCurtain co, have placed a
narrow window of rain briefly changing to frzg rain just before
ending. Currently, mesonet showing reports of FZRA with low vsbys
in se OK. Overall, temps have moved very little today, and will
not begin to fall until later in eve. Pops to decrease north to
south thru Wed with a brief period of clearing skies and decent
radiation cooling Fri night with overnight lows ranging from mid
to upper 20s north, to mid 30s south. Upper trough exiting the
rockies with rain once again returning to area durg the day
Friday and Heavy rain possible durg the wknd. Following passage of
upper trough, remainder of extended will see more isentropic lift
behind this system into early next week.07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR cigs will continue through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening, as overrunning continues to increase atop the shallow
cold air dome in place near and N of a stationary front extending
from Deep E TX into Cntrl LA. Vsbys will be reduced in areas of
-RA/-DZ that develop near and N of the front, with patchy dense FG
possible at LFK through late afternoon. Should start to see
deeper convection develop after 00Z Wednesday over portions of E
TX into N LA/SW AR along and just N of the front, as a weak
frontal wave develops and shifts ENE across Ncntrl LA. This may
result in minor improvements to cigs, before the convection
begins to diminish from NW to SE after 06Z. The convection should
end across the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals by 10Z, SHV/MLU by 12Z, but
the post-frontal rains look to persist through early to mid-
afternoon Wednesday over Deep E TX and the Srn sections of Ncntrl
LA. Once the rains end late tonight/after daybreak Wednesday,
should see a slow improvement to cigs, which will become MVFR
across much of E TX by or shortly after 12Z, and SW AR/extreme
Nrn LA prior to 18Z. Additional improvement to VFR is expected
Wednesday afternoon over all but Deep E TX and the Srn sections
of Ncntrl LA. ENE winds 5-9kts this afternoon will become NNW
7-12kts later this evening, with gusts to 20kts over the Wrn
sections of E TX. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  48  33  60 / 100  40  10   0
MLU  45  47  32  58 / 100  80  10   0
DEQ  33  47  26  57 /  60  10  10   0
TXK  36  46  29  56 /  90  10  10   0
ELD  39  46  29  57 / 100  40  10   0
TYR  38  46  32  58 /  80  20  10   0
GGG  40  47  32  60 /  90  30  10   0
LFK  47  48  36  61 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1204 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071815-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1204 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will gradually
begin to increase across the area later this afternoon into the
overnight. A few stronger storms may be capable of producing hail,
mainly south of Interstate 20. In addition, locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible this evening through early
Wednesday morning, mainly southeast of a line from Tyler Texas to
Prescott Arkansas. Storm total rainfall amounts of between one and
three inches are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated thunderstorms will persist into Wednesday across
portions of East Texas and Louisiana along and south of Interstate
20. However, the threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather
should diminish by sunrise Wednesday morning. The rain should
completely exit the area by Wednesday night.

More showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning Friday
afternoon, through the weekend, and possibly into early next
week. However, no organized threat of severe weather is expected
at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Due to the isolated nature of any severe weather...spotter
activation is not anticipated at this time.

07

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