Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

We will continue to see two main areas of scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of this afternoon and early this
evening. One area will be west of the Highway 65 corridor where
upper level short wave energy is providing a focus. A second area
will be across south-central Missouri. While we will likely see
isolated storms in between these two areas, there is a relative
minimum in CAPE in a corridor from around Buffalo to Rolla.
Thermodynamic and moisture profiles will continue to favor a
threat for downburst winds and perhaps some hail with storms into
early this evening.

Storms will then die off by late evening with mainly quiet weather
expected overnight. We will then see another opportunity for
scattered storms tomorrow afternoon primarily across southeastern
Kansas and central Missouri as approaching short wave energy
drives a surface boundary into that region. It once again appears
that downburst winds and hail may accompany a few of these storms.
High temperatures once again look on the warm side with most areas
reaching the lower 90s. Middle 90s look quite possible around
Joplin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

That surface front will slowly push south through the Ozarks from
Friday night into Saturday. This feature will keep the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Temperatures will also be a tad cooler with most areas seeing
upper 80s and lower 90s for highs (near normal).

We will then maintain some PoPs for thunderstorm potential into
Sunday as that front stalls over the area. We generally went in
the 20-30% range (isolated to widely scattered) as there may not
be much in the way of mid/upper level support.

That will change as we get into the Monday through Thursday time
period as a closed upper level low slowly moves east and opens up
across the central Plains and then Mid-Mississippi Valley. This
feature will provide an extended focus for showers and
thunderstorms. This is a welcome opportunity for the drought-
stricken areas across the region. The expected clouds and
precipitation will likely keep temperatures below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

For the 18z TAFS, starting to get a cumulus field over the area.
An upper level circulation very evident on water vapor imagery
just to the west of the CWA and 2500-3000j/kg sfc based CAPE
values will aid in convective development this afternoon. For now
have gone with VCTS wording in TAFS but may need to bump up in an
amendment later on if coverage becomes more than scattered. VFR
conditions are expected outside of any convection. Would expect
MVFR during convection and a brief period of IFR with any stronger
storms. Main convection should diminish by 00-02z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-102100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
351 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area into
  early this evening before diminishing. A few severe storms are
  possible with damaging downburst winds and hail up to the size
  of quarters the main potential severe weather hazards.
  Frequent lightning and brief torrential rainfall can also be
  expected from these storms.

  Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will occur over west
  central Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas during the
  afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will occur Friday
  afternoon across much of the area and across southern Missouri
  on Saturday afternoon.

  Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible once
  again on Friday, especially across extreme southeastern Kansas
  and central Missouri. A few of these storms may again produce
  damaging downburst winds and hail up to the size of quarters.

  A few storms will then remain possible from Friday night
  through Sunday. A better coverage of thunderstorms is then
  expected from Monday through Wednesday as an upper level
  storm system slowly moves east through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

KSZ101-MOZ088-093-092030-
Cherokee KS-Jasper MO-Newton MO-
238 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE...NORTHWESTERN
NEWTON AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oronogo, or near Joplin, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin...                         Webb City...
Carl Junction...                  Baxter Springs...
Columbus...                       Galena...
Oronogo...                        Carterville...
Duquesne...                       Duenweg...
Airport Drive...                  Weir...
Leawood...                        Lowell...
Silver Creek...                   Alba...
Scammon...                        Purcell...
Shoal Creek Drive...              Saginaw...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 6 and 15.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 34 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9441 3702 9433 3702 9481 3733 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 043DEG 5KT 3718 9448

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ090-092100-
Greene MO-
317 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ash Grove, or 14 miles southeast of Greenfield, moving south at 10
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ash Grove...

LAT...LON 3728 9361 3728 9363 3731 9362 3737 9362
      3737 9354 3725 9351 3724 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 357DEG 7KT 3732 9360

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ077-088-089-094-092115-
Barton MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-
332 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jasper, or 7 miles south of Lamar, moving south at 10 mph. Other
scattered strong storms were occuring in the area in northeast
Jasper and northwest Lawrence counties.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carthage...                       Lockwood...
Jasper...                         Golden City...
Carytown...                       Lamar Heights...
Avilla...                         Oakton...
Red Oak...                        Dudenville...
Kenoma...                         Maple Grove...
Meinert...                        Boston...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 43 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 9439 3745 9400 3722 9385 3714 9416
      3719 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 357DEG 7KT 3739 9428

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             1 NNW JOPLIN            37.10N 94.52W
08/09/2018  E0.88 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF
            JOPLIN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW SAGINAW           37.03N 94.47W
08/09/2018  E60 MPH          NEWTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A 60 MPH WIND GUST
            IN SAGINAW, MO.

&&

CKR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
403 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ105-092145-
Ozark MO-
403 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gainesville, or 20 miles north of Mountain Home, moving south at 15
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norfork Lake...                   Gainesville...
Hardenville...                    Sycamore...
Tecumseh...                       Zanoni...
Udall...

LAT...LON 3673 9247 3674 9220 3650 9216 3650 9251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 357DEG 11KT 3663 9234

DSA