Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

We will continue to see two main areas of scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of this afternoon and early this
evening. One area will be west of the Highway 65 corridor where
upper level short wave energy is providing a focus. A second area
will be across south-central Missouri. While we will likely see
isolated storms in between these two areas, there is a relative
minimum in CAPE in a corridor from around Buffalo to Rolla.
Thermodynamic and moisture profiles will continue to favor a
threat for downburst winds and perhaps some hail with storms into
early this evening.

Storms will then die off by late evening with mainly quiet weather
expected overnight. We will then see another opportunity for
scattered storms tomorrow afternoon primarily across southeastern
Kansas and central Missouri as approaching short wave energy
drives a surface boundary into that region. It once again appears
that downburst winds and hail may accompany a few of these storms.
High temperatures once again look on the warm side with most areas
reaching the lower 90s. Middle 90s look quite possible around
Joplin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

That surface front will slowly push south through the Ozarks from
Friday night into Saturday. This feature will keep the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Temperatures will also be a tad cooler with most areas seeing
upper 80s and lower 90s for highs (near normal).

We will then maintain some PoPs for thunderstorm potential into
Sunday as that front stalls over the area. We generally went in
the 20-30% range (isolated to widely scattered) as there may not
be much in the way of mid/upper level support.

That will change as we get into the Monday through Thursday time
period as a closed upper level low slowly moves east and opens up
across the central Plains and then Mid-Mississippi Valley. This
feature will provide an extended focus for showers and
thunderstorms. This is a welcome opportunity for the drought-
stricken areas across the region. The expected clouds and
precipitation will likely keep temperatures below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

For the 18z TAFS, starting to get a cumulus field over the area.
An upper level circulation very evident on water vapor imagery
just to the west of the CWA and 2500-3000j/kg sfc based CAPE
values will aid in convective development this afternoon. For now
have gone with VCTS wording in TAFS but may need to bump up in an
amendment later on if coverage becomes more than scattered. VFR
conditions are expected outside of any convection. Would expect
MVFR during convection and a brief period of IFR with any stronger
storms. Main convection should diminish by 00-02z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
953 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101500-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
953 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the area today.
  While widespread severe storms are not expected, some of the
  stronger updrafts may produce up to quarter size hail and wind
  gusts up to 60 mph.

  Heat index values in the mid to upper 90s will occur over west
  central Missouri into extreme southeast Kansas during the
  afternoon hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible once
  again on Friday into the weekend. However...severe weather is
  not expected at this time.

  Heat index values in the mid to  upper 90s will occur over
  mainly southern and western Missouri and extreme southeast
  Kansas during the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
150 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ102-091915-
Barry MO-
150 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BARRY COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Cassville, moving south at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roaring River State Park...       Cassville...

LAT...LON 3675 9385 3675 9365 3660 9364 3660 9384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 000DEG 5KT 3672 9375

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
159 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ077-089-091945-
Barton MO-Dade MO-
159 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BARTON AND
NORTHWESTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Lockwood, or 11 miles northwest of Greenfield, moving
south at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake...                  Greenfield...
Lockwood...                       Golden City...
Arcola...                         Neola...
Cedarville...                     Sylvania...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9408 3758 9407 3758 9392 3757 9385
      3739 9383 3739 9414 3759 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 000DEG 5KT 3753 9400

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ097-098-106-092015-
Oregon MO-Howell MO-Shannon MO-
235 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON...
NORTHEASTERN HOWELL AND NORTHWESTERN OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Birch Tree, or near Mountain View, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View...                  Birch Tree...
Montier...                        Peace Valley...
Teresita...

LAT...LON 3678 9176 3701 9177 3711 9138 3683 9135
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 256DEG 20KT 3696 9159

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
238 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

KSZ101-MOZ088-093-092030-
Cherokee KS-Jasper MO-Newton MO-
238 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHEROKEE...NORTHWESTERN
NEWTON AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oronogo, or near Joplin, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin...                         Webb City...
Carl Junction...                  Baxter Springs...
Columbus...                       Galena...
Oronogo...                        Carterville...
Duquesne...                       Duenweg...
Airport Drive...                  Weir...
Leawood...                        Lowell...
Silver Creek...                   Alba...
Scammon...                        Purcell...
Shoal Creek Drive...              Saginaw...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 6 and 15.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 34 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9441 3702 9433 3702 9481 3733 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 043DEG 5KT 3718 9448

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
317 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ090-092100-
Greene MO-
317 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ash Grove, or 14 miles southeast of Greenfield, moving south at 10
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ash Grove...

LAT...LON 3728 9361 3728 9363 3731 9362 3737 9362
      3737 9354 3725 9351 3724 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 357DEG 7KT 3732 9360

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
332 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

MOZ077-088-089-094-092115-
Barton MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-
332 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BARTON...
NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jasper, or 7 miles south of Lamar, moving south at 10 mph. Other
scattered strong storms were occuring in the area in northeast
Jasper and northwest Lawrence counties.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carthage...                       Lockwood...
Jasper...                         Golden City...
Carytown...                       Lamar Heights...
Avilla...                         Oakton...
Red Oak...                        Dudenville...
Kenoma...                         Maple Grove...
Meinert...                        Boston...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 43 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 9439 3745 9400 3722 9385 3714 9416
      3719 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 357DEG 7KT 3739 9428

DSA