Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

The area of low pressure over the plains that spawned severe
weather over the region Sunday was continuing to make its way
across the plains early this morning.

The upper level low and surface low were becoming stacked on top
of each other early this morning, and making slow eastward
progress. This stacked system will continue to move slowly east
through this morning and into this afternoon. With this slow
movement, 850mb jet winds of 20-30kts will be over the area
through the day. Instability across the region may be slow to
recover though models do bring MUCAPES of 1000-15000j/kg into the
area by this afternoon.

THE CAMS models have been indicating storm development this
afternoon along the Highway 65 corridor with storms moving east
through this afternoon. The global models (GFS/ECMWF) and the NAM
are all showing a mid level wave riding around the western edge
of the low and swinging through the Ozarks late this morning into
the afternoon. With the shear and potential instability expected,
its not out of the question that we see additional strong to
severe storms develop across the eastern half of the Ozarks today,
associated with this wave. The main concern with any storms that
do develop would be damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall, but
a tornado will remain possible as well.

The low will have moves far enough east by tonight to drag its
rain with it,leaving slowly dissipating cloud cover in its wake.
The combination of clearing and ample surface moisture may lead
to some patchy fog development. This would be most prevalent in
valleys, low lying areas and in the vicinity of lakes and rivers.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Surface high pressure will filter into the area for Tuesday under
northwesterly upper level flow. This will bring some cooler
weather to the area with afternoon highs hovering around the 80
degree mark through the middle of the week.

A patter shift then occurs Friday with the next best chance of
rain coming late Thursday night into Friday morning. This occurs
as the patterns shifts to southwesterly flow at least briefly
before upper level ridging moves over the southern plains and
bring a return of summer like temperatures around the 90 degree
mark for the weekend and into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Convection is developing over southcentral Missouri at this hour
but will be far enough to the east as to not affect the aerodrome
sites. The activity that will affect these sites is expected to be
more showery in nature this afternoon.

As the area gets into the wrap around region this evening...
expect MVFR ceilings to develop during the evening and persist
during the overnight hours. Conditions will begin to improve
after sunrise on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211730-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Thunderstorms will impact south central Missouri this
  afternoon. A couple of the more intense storms may have a
  limited risk of producing a small tornado, damaging wind
  gusts, or hail up to the size of quarters.

  Storms should exit the area by late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

  Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday night into Friday
  morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT VERNON            37.10N 93.81W
08/20/2018  M2.23 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   COCORAHS

            24HR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
944 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ESE DOGWOOD           37.00N 92.74W
08/20/2018  M2.14 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   COCORAHS

            24HR RAINFALL TOTAL.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1035 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TORNADO          1 WNW MADRY             36.88N 93.74W
08/19/2018                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            EF1 TORNADO STARTING AT HWY Z AND 39 AND
            ENDING WEST OF MARIONVILLE. MAX WINDS
            ESTIMATED 90MPH, WIDTH 100 YARDS AND
            DISTANCE 9.4 MILES. NUMEROUS OUTBUILDINGS
            DAMAGED, TREES UPROOTED, SOME POWER LINES
            DOWN, AND TWO MOBILE HOMES WITH PARTIAL
            ROOFS REMOVED. STARTED AT 6:42 PM AND ENDED
            AROUND 7:03 PM.

&&

TEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1037 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TORNADO          1 WNW MADRY             36.88N 93.74W
08/19/2018                   BARRY              MO   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 1 WNW
            MADRY. EF1 TORNADO STARTING AT HWY Z AND 39
            AND ENDING WEST OF MARIONVILLE. MAX WINDS
            ESTIMATED 90MPH, WIDTH 100 YARDS AND
            DISTANCE 9.4 MILES. NUMEROUS OUTBUILDINGS
            DAMAGED, TREES UPROOTED, SOME POWER LINES
            DOWN, AND TWO MOBILE HOMES WITH PARTIAL
            ROOFS REMOVED. STARTED AT 6:42 PM AND ENDED
            AROUND 7:03 PM.

&&

TEO