Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Springfield, MO

512 
WWUS53 KSGF 200025 RRA
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

MOC039-057-200035-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-180820T0045Z/
Cedar MO-Dade MO-
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CEDAR AND NORTHEASTERN
DADE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for southwestern
and west central Missouri.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3783 9381 3783 9363 3774 9363 3774 9361
      3736 9363 3783 9393 3789 9385 3789 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 230DEG 33KT 3796 9360 3753 9335 

$$

Schaumann

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

...Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

A large shield of showers and thunderstorms extended deep into
extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon.
This was in response to an unseasonably strong upper level low
pressure system, that was circulating over the central Plains.

This feature has a surface reflection centered over east central
Kansas, which helped to bring in an airmass rich in moisture, and
slightly more unstable.

Determining if organized thunderstorms will develop late this
afternoon and early evening was the primary forecast challenge
today. Some of the CAMS models showed deep convection, while
others have not.

Shear will be strong for the time of year, however, instability
levels are in question. A Special RAOB was performed at 2pm to
assess how unstable the Ozarks airmass really was. We are
especially focused on the lower distribution of cape, and how much
of it exists.

The HRRR shows organized line segments to developing within an
environment containing 0-3km shear vector magnitudes of around 35
knots. If sufficient low level cape is present, we could
experience pockets of damaging winds, and even a couple of spin up
tornadoes.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger at random late tonight and
into tomorrow. South central Missouri could have a marginal to
slight risk for additional thunderstorms tomorrow. Look for highs
in the low 80s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Fall like weather is expected through the rest of the work week as
rain chances end Monday evening. With northwest flow keeping a
cool continental airmass over the region, temperatures will warm
up into the low to mid 80s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.

An upper level speed max is signaled by the models to approach by
Friday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

As mid level heights rise toward next weekend, models do suggest a
warming trend, with temperatures back in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms are moving across
southwest Missouri. The line has cleared KJLN, but KSGF and KBBG
will see strong to severe thunderstorms in the next few hours. IFR
visibilities/ceilings along with strong winds likely with this
line, and the potential for tornadoes will also continue. This
line will move east of KBBG and KSGF by 03Z, but still some
remaining showers/storms are not out of the question the
remainder of the night. Mainly VFR conditions then expected behind
the line, although some local MVFR ceilings will be possible in
any remaining showers. Another chance for convection will occur
late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-202230-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
525 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
  through this evening. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will
  be likely with a few of the most intense thunderstorms.
  Locations along and south of a line from Carthage to Salem
  Missouri with receive the greatest risk for severe weather.

  There is also a limited risk for localized flooding this
  evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

  Strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible Monday
  mainly across the eastern Ozarks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will be needed across southern Missouri
  through the evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TORNADO          1 S DIGGINS             37.15N 92.85W
08/19/2018                   WEBSTER            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF TORNADO DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY NN AND
            LAKEHILL ROAD JUST SOUTH OF DIGGINS. TORNADO
            THEN CROSSED HIGHWAY 60 NEAR DIGGINS WITH
            DEBRIS BLOCKING HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

KP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW REEDS             37.14N 94.21W
08/19/2018  E60 MPH          JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TORNADO          1 NW MCDOWELL           36.84N 93.81W
08/19/2018                   BARRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CONFIRMS TORNADO ON THE GROUND 3
            MILES SOUTH OF AURORA, MO.

&&

KP