Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
351 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

The main forecast concern will continue to be heavy rainfall and
flash flooding potential.

The remnants of tropical system Gordon will slowly track northeast
from north-central Arkansas this afternoon into south-central
Missouri by late tonight and Saturday morning. The center of this
system will then make it to near or just south of St. Louis by
sunset Saturday.

The overall atmosphere will remain supportive of very efficient
rainfall rates with precipitable water values over two inches and
tall and skinny CAPE profiles. This will maximize warm rain
processes and the collision/coalescence process. Rainfall rates
of 2-3" per hour are therefore expected with heavier showers. The
key for flooding potential will be residence time of showers over
a given location.

There will be two general areas of focus for heavy rain potential
and increased residence time. The first area will occur from this
afternoon into early Saturday morning just to the east of the
center of circulation and impact portions of south-central
Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

The second area of concern will be continued moisture convergence
in the 925-850 mb layer riding over the top of a nearly stationary
frontal boundary. There may also be some mid/upper level jet
interaction. This initial area of increased focus will occur from
the Lake of the Ozarks region into extreme southeastern Kansas
from this afternoon into this evening. This area of focus will
then slowly shift east-northeast with time later tonight and
Saturday morning. Interestingly, we have seen meso-beta
circulations within this larger area of focus across eastern
Kansas. These features will have to be watched very closely for
intense rainfall rates.

Overall, 2-5" amounts are expected across much of the watch area.
Locally higher amounts over 6" will be possible with some of
those smaller scale circulations and where showers train for
multiple hours.

Earlier today, we expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include
portions of west-central Missouri and all of extreme southeastern
Kansas. We kept the watch as is for this forecast package with two
caveats. The first will be the possible expansion of the watch
this evening to include more of southwestern Missouri if that
aforementioned focus shifts more to the southeast (there are a
few models indicating this).

The second eventual consideration will be to potentially cancel
the watch a bit early as most of the heavy rainfall should end by
Saturday afternoon (the current watch goes through Saturday
evening).

As for temperatures, we are not looking for too much movement with
clouds and precipitation expected. Lows tonight will fall into the
middle 60s to around 70 degrees. Highs on Saturday should range
from the upper 60s across central Missouri to the upper 70s over
far south-central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

Left-over light showers or perhaps pockets of drizzle will then
remain possible into Sunday morning as a mid/upper level trough
axis slides southeast through the region.

Quiet weather is then expected from Sunday afternoon through much
of next work week as the main upper level westerlies shift back to
our north and a weak inverted trough sets up over our neck of the
woods. Given a lack of overall focusing mechanisms and moisture,
we have kept the forecast dry.

A very slow warming trend is expected throughout the week. Highs
early in the week will be in the middle to upper 70s. We should
see highs back into the lower to middle 80s by the end of next
work week. Low temperatures early in the week will dip into the
middle 50s to around 60 degrees and then warm into the lower to
middle 60s by week's end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist throughout the majority of
the TAF period as scattered showers continue to increase in
coverage during the afternoon and evening. Some isolated rumbles
of thunder embedded in the ongoing shower activity will be
possible, with visibilities also lowering to LIFR thresholds with
any shower passing near the TAF sites.

Surface winds will remain easterly around 5-10 knots through the
forecast period as we remain under the influence of remnants of TS
Gordon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088-089-091-092-096>098-105-106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry/Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-082330-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Numerous moderate to heavy showers along with isolated
thunderstorms will continue tonight. The main potential hazards
through tonight will be flash flooding and isolated lightning
strikes. The greatest potential for flash flooding will occur
along and northeast of a Neosho to Gainesville line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The potential for heavy rain will continue into early Saturday.
This will lead to an increasing threat for flash flooding through
Saturday...with the greater threat occurring along and east of
Highway 63. Residual flooding will also be possible across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme Southeastern Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
818 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE DIXON             38.02N 92.08W
09/07/2018                   MARIES             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF FLOODING OVER THE ROADWAY AT
            COUNTY ROAD 624 AND THE MARIES RIVER, NORTH
            OF DIXON, MO.

&&

KP