River Flood Warning 63, NWS Blacksburg, VA

807 
WGUS81 KRNK 152131
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
431 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...Charlotte
  and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 

Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches has fallen across the Lower Roanoke River 
Basin.  This runoff, combined with snowmelt, will cause significant 
rises along the Roanoke River through Sunday with minor flooding 
likely, especially for lowland farmlands, Brookneal to Randolph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued this evening.

&&

VAC031-037-083-160531-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0062.181215T2121Z-181216T1342Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.181215T1928Z.181215T2045Z.181216T0142Z.NO/
431 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* until Sunday morning. 
* at 3PM Saturday the stage was 23.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river is expected to crest by this evening at 23.2 feet then fall
  below flood stage a couple of hours afterwards.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Nov 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-160531-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0063.181216T0322Z-181218T1200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0322Z.181216T1800Z.181218T0000Z.NO/
431 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from tonight until Tuesday morning
* at 3PM Saturday the stage was 21.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 26.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Monday evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

370 
WGUS81 KRNK 160110
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
810 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...Charlotte
  and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 

Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches has fallen across the Lower Roanoke River 
Basin.  This runoff, combined with snowmelt, will cause significant 
rises along the Roanoke River through Sunday with minor flooding 
likely, especially for lowland farmlands, Brookneal to Randolph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued around or a little 
after midnight tonight when river level at Randolph is expected
rise above flood stage.

&&

VAC031-037-083-160910-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-181217T0130Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.181215T1928Z.181216T0600Z.181216T1330Z.NO/
810 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* until Sunday morning. 
* at 6PM Saturday the stage was 23.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by shortly
  after midnight. The river will fall below flood stage around
  sunrise Sunday.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Nov 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-160910-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0063.181216T0400Z-181218T1612Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0400Z.181217T0000Z.181218T0412Z.NO/
810 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* from tonight until Monday night
* at 6PM Saturday the stage was 22.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 26.3 feet by Sunday evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage Monday evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

502 
WGUS81 KRNK 160713
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
213 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches has fallen across the Lower Roanoke River 
Basin in the last couple of days. This runoff, combined with snowmelt,
will continue to result in significant rises along the lower portion
of the the Roanoke and Dan Rivers. Mainly minor flooding is forecast,
but some locations will see moderate flooding continuing into early
Monday, especially for lowland farmlands from Brookneal to Randoloph
and beyond as well as from Danville to South Boston and further
downstream.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

Another update on the river forecasts will be issued later this morning
before noon.

&&

VAC031-037-083-161513-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-181217T0130Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.181215T1928Z.181216T0400Z.181216T1330Z.NO/
213 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 2 AM EST Sunday the stage was 23.4 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river crested at 24.1 feet around midnight and has begun
  a slow fall. The river will continue to fall and is expected
  to below flood stage around midday today.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.3 
  feet on Nov 16 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-161513-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1612Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0000Z.181218T0412Z.NO/
213 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 2 AM EDT Sunday the stage was 24.3 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* The river is expected to continue to rise to near 26.3 feet
  by this evening. Thereafter, the river is expected to begin 
  falling and is forecast to fall below flood stage late Monday
  evening or Monday night.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  River road and Black Walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-161513-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-181217T1452Z/
/DVLV2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.181216T1200Z.181217T0252Z.UU/
213 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Monday morning. 
* at 2 AM EST Sunday the stage was 20.3 feet...and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 20.5 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 20.8 feet this morning. 
  The river is then forecast to begin falling below moderate flood
  stage by early afternoon, then falling below flood stage later
  tonight or early Monday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.5 
  feet on Nov 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-161513-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T0945Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0000Z.181217T2145Z.NO/
213 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late Monday night. 
* at 2 AM EDT Sunday the stage was 21.2 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.8 feet by this evening...
  just below Moderate Flood.
* The river is then forecast to fall below flood stage Monday
  evening.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.6 
  feet on Nov 14 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-161513-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0445Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1200Z.181218T1645Z.NO/
213 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 2AM EDT Sunday the stage was 23.0 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 24.9 feet by
  early Sunday morning. This is just below the Moderate Flood stage.
  The river is then forecast to beginning falling...falling below
  flood stage late Tuesday evening near midnight.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

RAB

896 
WGUS81 KRNK 161304
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
804 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville...and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

  ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties

Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches has fallen across the Lower Roanoke River 
Basin in the last couple of days. This runoff, combined with snowmelt,
will continue to result in minor to moderate flooding along the lower
portion of the the Roanoke and Dan Rivers. Mainly minor flooding is
forecast, but some locations will see moderate flooding continuing
into early Monday, especially for lowland farmlands from near and
downstream of Randoloph as well as from Danville to South Boston and
further downstream.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
An updated statement will be issued this afternoon or evening.

&&

VAC031-037-083-161334-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-181217T0130Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.181215T1928Z.181216T0400Z.181216T1022Z.NO/
804 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* until further notice. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 22.6 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river has crested, now fallen below flood stage, and
  is not forecast to rise above flood stage until further notice.
* Impact...at 23.0 feet...Low-lying fields and woods are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885                                     

$$

VAC037-083-162104-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1536Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0000Z.181218T0336Z.NO/
804 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 25.1 feet...and rising slowly.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.1 feet by this evening. 
  The river is forecast to fall below flood stage late Monday evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-162104-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-181217T1640Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181216T0746Z.181217T0440Z.UU/
804 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Monday morning. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 20.1 feet...and falling slowly.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 20.5 feet.
* The river crested around midnight near 20.6 feet, just at the
  Moderate flood stage. The river has now fallen below Moderate
  flood stage and will continue to fall today.
* The river is forecast to fall to below flood stage late tonight
  or Monday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.5 
  feet on Nov 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-162104-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T1026Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0600Z.181217T2226Z.NO/
804 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late Monday night. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 21.9 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to continue to rise to near 23.1 feet
  after midnight tonight or early Monday morning.
* The river is forecast to fall below flood stage Monday afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.3 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-162104-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0418Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1200Z.181218T1618Z.NO/
804 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 8 AM EST Sunday the stage was 23.6 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river is forecast to continue rising to near 24.8 feet
  by Monday morning...then begin to fall. It is forecast to fall
  below flood stage late Tuesday morning. The river is forecast
  to crest very near Moderate Flood Stage.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

RAB

788 
WGUS81 KRNK 162059
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
359 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia and North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Runoff from Friday's rainfall and snow melt continues, with greatest
impact along the Dan River, and the Lower Roanoke. Minor to near 
moderate flooding is being observed. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 11 PM this evening. 

&&

VAC037-083-170459-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1536Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0000Z.181218T0336Z.NO/
359 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 2PM Sunday the stage was 25.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue rise and crest a little over 26 feet
  this evening.  The river will then trend lower, falling below
  flood stage Monday.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-170459-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-181217T1640Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181216T0746Z.181217T0440Z.UU/
359 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until Monday morning. 
* at 3PM Sunday the stage was 19.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river has crested at Danville, and will continue to fall
  to below flood stage by Monday morning. 

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-170459-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T1026Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0600Z.181217T2226Z.NO/
359 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late Monday night. 
* at 2PM Sunday the stage was 22.8 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to rise, cresting between 23 and 24 feet
  late tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Monday afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.3 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-170459-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0418Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1200Z.181218T1618Z.NO/
359 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 3PM Sunday the stage was 24.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25 feet by Monday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

11

737 
WGUS81 KRNK 170106
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
806 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 
  Dan River near Danville affecting Caswell...Rockingham...City of 
  Danville and Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

Runoff from Friday's rainfall and snow melt continues, with greatest
impact along the Dan River, and the Lower Roanoke. Minor to near 
moderate flooding is being observed. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued around or a little
after midnight tonight when the Dan River at Danville is expected
to fall below flood stage.

&&

VAC037-083-170906-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181216T2345Z.181218T0000Z.NO/
806 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Monday evening. 
* at 6PM Sunday the stage was 26.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Monday 
  evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-157-VAC143-590-170906-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-181217T1528Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.181216T0746Z.181217T0328Z.UU/
806 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River near Danville.
* until early Monday morning. 
* at 7PM Sunday the stage was 18.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early 
  Monday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.5 
  feet on Nov 13 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 7974 3650 7976 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-170906-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T0716Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0600Z.181217T1916Z.NO/
806 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until early Monday afternoon. 
* at 6PM Sunday the stage was 23.1 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will hold nearly steady around 23.1 feet until shortly
  after midnight then start falling early Monday morning. The river
  will fall below flood stage early Monday afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.3 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-170906-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181218T2315Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1200Z.181218T1115Z.NO/
806 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 7PM Sunday the stage was 24.4 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.9 feet by Monday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

306 
WGUS81 KRNK 170516
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1216 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 ...While the Dan River at South Boston continues to experience very slow rise,
 both the Dan River at Paces and Roanoke River at Randolph are nearing their 
 crests as of early Monday morning. Though a crest is expected around mid morning 
 at South Boston, receding trends should begin today for Paces and Randolph. It is
 expected that Paces and South Boston will fall below flood stage later today, but 
 South Boston will remain above flood stage until early Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued this morning, or sooner if 
South Boston approaches moderate flood stage category.

&&

VAC037-083-171315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0200Z.181218T0000Z.NO/
1216 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 11PM Sunday the stage was 26.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-171315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T0716Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0445Z.181217T1916Z.NO/
1216 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until late tonight. 
* at 11PM Sunday the stage was 23.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late Monday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.3 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-171315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181218T2315Z/
/SBNV2.1.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1200Z.181218T1115Z.NO/
1216 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 11PM Sunday the stage was 24.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.9 feet by this morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

206 
WGUS81 KRNK 171220
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
720 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 Moderate flooding is occurring along the Dan River at South Boston.
 Minor flooding is occurring along the Dan River at Paces and the Roanoke 
 River at Randolph. The Dan River at South Boston will crest near 25.1 feet
 this morning, then start to drop this afternoon and evening. The Dan River
 at Paces and the Roanoke River at Randolph are falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by this afternoon.

&&

VAC037-083-172020-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1200Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0200Z.181218T0000Z.NO/
720 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 06AM Monday the stage was 25.6 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-172020-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T1336Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0715Z.181218T0136Z.NO/
720 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 06AM Monday the stage was 23.1 feet falling.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this 
  evening.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Low spots along routes 658 and 671 begin 
  to flood.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.3 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-172020-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0600Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1800Z.181218T1800Z.NO/
720 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Tuesday night. 
* at 06AM Monday the stage was 25.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.1 feet by late this
  morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...at 27.0 feet...Water approaches route 501.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

713 
WGUS81 KRNK 171725
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1225 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties. 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County. 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County. 


 Moderate flooding is occurring along the Dan River at South Boston.
 Minor flooding is occurring along the Dan River at Paces and the Roanoke 
 River at Randolph. The Dan River at South Boston is currently cresting 
 near 25.1 feet, and is expected to begin falling this afternoon and evening. 
 The Dan River at Paces and the Roanoke River at Randolph are falling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 11PM this evening.

&&

VAC037-083-180124-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1240Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0200Z.181218T0040Z.NO/
1225 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 11AM Monday the stage was 25.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-180124-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T1324Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0715Z.181218T0124Z.NO/
1225 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 11AM Monday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...mainly to lowland areas.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.3 
  feet on Nov 17 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-180124-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0551Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1530Z.181218T1751Z.NO/
1225 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Tuesday night. 
* at 11AM Monday the stage was 25.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river appears to be cresting and should begin to fall this afternoon. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

419 
WGUS81 KRNK 180123
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
823 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax
  Counties 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

 Minor flooding is occurring along the Dan River at South Boston
 and the Roanoke River at Randolph. Both forecast points have crested
 and will continue to fall overnight into tomorrow. The Dan River at
 Paces has dropped below flood stage and will continue to fall overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 10am tomorrow morning.

&&

VAC037-083-180922-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1418Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0200Z.181218T0218Z.NO/
823 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* through late tonight. 
* at 07PM Monday the stage was 24.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late tonight.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Sep 18 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-180153-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-181218T1324Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.181216T0000Z.181217T0715Z.181218T0036Z.NO/
823 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Dan River at Paces. 
* at 07PM Monday the stage was 19.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-180922-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0551Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1700Z.181218T1751Z.NO/
823 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Tuesday night. 
* at 07PM Monday the stage was 24.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late
  Tuesday night.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

BMG

395 
WGUS81 KRNK 180410
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1110 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and 
  Halifax Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 ...River levels at both the Roanoke River at Randolph and the Dan River at 
 South Boston continue to recede. The Roanoke River at Randolph has now fallen
 below flood stage category, and the flood warning for this reach of river is 
 now cancelled. The flood warning for the Dan River at South Boston continues, 
 but continued recession in level expected and is expected to fall below 
 flood stage mid-afternoon on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued Tuesday morning.

&&

VAC037-083-180440-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-181218T1418Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.181216T0515Z.181217T0200Z.181218T0330Z.NO/
1110 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River at Randolph.
* until Tuesday morning. 
* at 10PM Monday the stage was 24.0 feet.

* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 23.9 
  feet on Sep 18 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

VAC083-181210-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-181219T0542Z/
/SBNV2.2.ER.181215T1149Z.181217T1700Z.181218T1742Z.NO/
1110 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Tuesday night. 
* at 10PM Monday the stage was 24.6 feet.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow 
  early afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 25.6 
  feet on May 19 2018.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Loconto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1244 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over the Deep South will slowly progress into the
central Appalachians through tonight. A brief period of upslope rain
and snow showers are possible Monday night across the western
mountains. Drier weather as high pressure builds in Monday night
through midweek. Above-normal temperatures are expected through the
weekend into much of the upcoming workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 932 AM EST Saturday...

Vertically-stacked low pressure is centered over Alabama and
Tennessee border this morning will lift northeast this afternoon
into tonight. Periods of rain,drizzle and fog will continue
this morning then taper off to scattered showers this afternoon
into tonight. Flood watch remains in effect for this morning
into this afternoon for rain fall combined with snow melt.
Updated qpf with WPC latest forecast for this morning. Adjusted
the temperatures for this morning utilizing the latest surface
obs, their trends, and then blend in the GLAMP to capture some
of the cool temperatures this morning. More changes later
today...

As of 400 AM EST Saturday...

Moist air mass over melting snowpack still is contributing to a fair
amount of fog, with lowest visibilities tending to be in the higher
terrain in the Blue Ridge and points west. SPS for periods of fog
still is in effect till 11z/6am. Though rains have proven to be
pretty light to this point and only an additional third to three-
quarters of an inch of rain are expected, will continue the Flood
Watch until expiration as rivers are showing more response to
snowmelt and rain.

Otherwise, vertically-stacked low pressure is centered over central
MS early this morning. This feature, along with residual in-situ
wedge across the Piedmont of VA/NC, will be the main weather maker
over the next 24 hours, as this wound-up cyclone gradually fills and
progresses into the Blue Ridge by overnight tonight. While rain to
this point has proven to be pretty gradual and light - with periods
of drizzle at times - regional radar is showing a rather solid line
of steadier rains from eastern KY southward through the Tri-Cities
region in east TN on southward into west-central SC. This band
likely is being enhanced by the leading edge of strong upper-level
diffluent flow on the eastern periphery of the vertically-stacked
low. HRRR and RAP guidance appear to have the best handle on this
feature, which progresses this band of steady rain through the
morning hrs to the northeast between 11-15z/6-10 am. While that will
continue to bring river levels up higher, it's looking like once
this rain band exits into northern Virginia by late this morning,
that may be it for significant precipitation until later this
evening. GOES water vapor product sampling the mid-levels of
atmosphere shows significant dry layer that progresses immediately
behind this steadier rain band, which will likely only maintain low
clouds and a slight to low Chance PoP generally progressing
from south to north for afternoon. Still, stable stability
profile atop strong warm advection (850 mb temps in excess of
+10C) will maintain abundant cloud cover with either very light
rain or drizzle by afternoon. Will also continue to carry over
mention of fog in most areas, especially where snowpack remains,
but visibilities shouldn't support dense fog at least through
afternoon. HREF visibility prog generally shows visbys between 2
and 5 statute miles this afternoon. Temperatures and dewpoints
will be slowly but steadily climbing through the day, with both
being within a few degrees of each other. Highs in the mid/upper
40s, with low-mid 50s possible in far southwest VA and into
Mercer County.

For tonight, upper low begins progressing into the southern
Appalachians and Blue Ridge. Upper low will extend a 700-500 mb
inverted trough from its center northeast into northern/central VA.
Rain should become more focused in wrap-around fashion to the
north/west of the this trough axis, mainly across the NW NC
Mtns/Blue Ridge/I-81 corridor westward. Shown Likely to low end
categorical PoPs, but rain amounts should be less than a quarter-
inch. What's less certain is potential for lower visibility
fog, perhaps dense at times, across the Piedmont and VA/NC
foothills east of the upper cyclone's path. Visibility progs
from high res models - HREF, NAMNest and NAM-12km - show a
considerable coverage of quarter-mile visbys in this broad area
after 06z. Think this may be overdone as cold advection aloft
will likely help to mix out shallow inversion; that said, it's
possible either SPS or a dense fog advisory may be needed for
parts of this area tonight if confidence is greater on
occurrence. Have included areas of fog in most areas this
evening. Northwest winds at elevation will begin to increase as
well, but gusts should be below 30 kts. Lows mainly in the upper
30s to low 40s, though with low/mid 30s across higher
elevations such as Mt Rogers and the higher peaks in Watauga
County.

Forecast confidence is overall moderate to high. Biggest
uncertainties in this period are on coverage/intensity of fog
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EST Saturday...

Widespread low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely across much of
the forecast area early Sunday as the weakening vertically
stacked upper low drifts into northern VA. Best chance of
measurable precipitation will be west of I-81 and across the
mountains where weak upslope component, upper troughing, and
weak cold advection will be in place along with a minor
deformation zone. Conditions will improve very slowly through
the day Sunday with cloudy conditions likely lingering much of
the day, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Precipitation will
decrease, but may not end entirely in the western mountains.
Clouds will continue to hold temperatures down, but with no
significant change of air mass or Arctic air mass in the works,
temperatures will still be increasingly mild and above normal
with lows only in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 50s, in other
words about 10 degrees above normal, despite the clouds,
precipitation, drizzle, and light rain.

Monday, the upper low will lift more quickly into the northeast
U.S. with a short wave ridge edging eastward into the Midwest.
Dry northwest flow will evolve across the region, providing most
of the CWA with clearing skies and mild temperatures. Cold
advection in the northwest flow is modest for this time of year
with no source of Arctic air. Look for temperatures to range
from the 30s in the morning to the 40s west and 50s east by
afternoon with increasing amounts of sunshine. A few snow
showers are possible early in the western mountains, but
probability for this is quite low in this synoptic setup. Winds
may be a bit breezy, especially in the west Monday, but does not
appear to warrant the need for an advisory at this point or even
need to be mentioned in the HWO.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny as the upper ridge drifts eastward
over the region. A very dry air mass at all levels of the
atmosphere is expected providing mostly clear skies, decreasing
winds, and seasonable temperatures. The morning will start out
colder thanks to the modified Canadian high with lows in the 20s
and 30s warming into the 40s and 50s by afternoon.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
Temperatures - Moderate to High,
Precipitation Chances - Moderate to High,
Winds - Moderate to High.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 AM EST Saturday...

Dry conditions with above seasonal temperatures expected for
Wednesday and Thursday. The upper flow will become increasingly
high amplitude during the period as northern and southern stream
short wave energy begin to combine over Texas helping to develop
a deep full latitude trough. This trough promises to bring about
some significant changes to our weather by the weekend in the
form of precipitation, wind, and colder temperatures. Friday,
clouds will be on the increase as well as warmer southerly flow,
however the current models project massive deepening of the
upper trough into the deep south, meaning that this system will
be very slow to move through the eastern U.S. Deep southerly
flow promises to bring copious amounts of moisture into our area
Friday night and Saturday, just beyond this forecast period.
Flooding would appear to be the main concern at this point, but
again just beyond the current forecast analysis period. More on
this system tomorrow. At any rate, temperatures will be well
above freezing on the front side of this system, thus no
significant winter precipitation is expected through the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1244 PM EST Saturday...

Poor flying conditions expected with low clouds, rain, drizzle
and fog. Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions will continue
this afternoon into tonight as more rain lifts atop low-level
wedge. Period of rain,drizzle and fog expected this afternoon,
then becoming more of a drizzle or very light rain this evening
into tonight. Foggy conditions especially near residual snowpack
will continue at most TAFs.

Tonight into Sunday morning, expect wrap-around rain to blossom
at Lewisburg and Bluefield, while areas of fog and drizzle will
be more likely along and east of the Blue Ridge. Potential
exists for VLIFR dense fog overnight at Lynchburg and Danville,
though will leave as period of half-mile fog at these
terminals. Winds light and variable are expected through much
of the period.

There is the potential for low- level wind shear this afternoon
along and north of I64 as light easterly winds increase to
around 40 kts. The 850 mb low level jet will pivot quickly to
the north this evening into tonight.

Forecast confidence is medium to high on ceilings, visibilities
and winds during the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The upper low is expected to move east of the area Sunday.
Though generally improving ceiling/visby trends will result,
still will have scattered MVFR conditions with showers and low
cigs mainly in the western mountains. A transition to VFR
expected Monday and Tuesday as drying takes place. VFR
conditions will continue Wednesday. MVFR showers will return on
Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 359 AM EST Saturday...

Flood watches remain in effect roughly from I-81 and the NC
mountains east through late Sat afternoon.

Rainfall to this point has generally been an inch or less
according to multisensor precipitation estimates. Gradual/light
rainfall rates have largely transpired, working in tandem with
snow melting from above normal temperatures. As a result, most
mainstem rivers have been showing slow but steady rises since
this evening. An additional third to as much as three- quarters
of an inch of rain is expected through today. This additional
rainfall along with ongoing snowmelt should result in continued
slow rises Saturday into Saturday evening.

Ensemble forecasts for the rivers continue to show greatest
potential for flooding along the Dan River basin. A Flood
Warning is in effect until further notice at South Boston. Flood
warnings may also be needed at Danville and/or at Paces today,
but less basin-average rainfall has lowered confidence that
flood stage would be met at either site. Will continue to
monitor trends in river level.

The rest of the river basins should see continued slow rises
Saturday, and while a few gaged sites may reach action stage
levels on the Roanoke and James Rivers, none are presently
expected to reach flood stage.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ012>017-022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...AL/KK
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...AL/KK
HYDROLOGY...AL/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
437 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-160945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
437 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>011-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-160945-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
437 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1144 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ042-044-507-
152045-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Mercer-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone,
Wilkesboro, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville,
Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale,
Volney, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington,
Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista,
Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, Amherst, Bluefield, Flat Top,
Union, Lewisburg, White Sulphur Springs, and Alderson
1144 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...Areas of Dense Fog Across The Region This Afternoon...

Areas of fog, locally dense fog at times, along with patches of
drizzle will continue this afternoon. Rain on top of lingering
snowpack is resulting in fog, with visibilities commonly in the
one-half to 1 statute mile range across the area, but may at times
be as low as one quarter mile. Some improvement to visibilities
is anticipated later this afternoon.

Those traveling along I-77 from West Virginia to North Carolina,
I-81 from Chilhowie to Lexington, or the Blue Ridge Parkway and
other higher elevation roads will need to be alert to reductions
in visibilities. Remember to slow down and use low beam headlights
if traveling.

NCZ003>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-152045-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
Including the cities of Dobson, Danbury, Eden, Yanceyville,
Yadkinville, Martinsville, Danville, Lynchburg, Appomattox,
South Boston, and Keysville
1144 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

...Patchy Dense Fog Across The Region This Afternoon...

Patchy fog, at times locally dense, along with patches of drizzle
will continue this afternoon. Expect visibilities to be mainly in
the 1 to 5 statute mile range, though may be as low as one
quarter mile at times, especially near lingering snowpack. Some
improvement to visibilities is anticipated later this afternoon.

Be alert for reductions in visibilities. Remember to slow down
and use low beam headlights if traveling.