Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
920 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low and front to the south shifts away from the area
tonight. High pressure with drier weather for Friday and the
weekend. Turning warmer early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 920 PM Thursday...

Plenty of reports of flooding ongoing this evening with much of
West Virginia and parts of eastern Kentucky blanketed by Flood
Warnings. The good news is that the back edge to the heavier
rainfall is advancing eastward quickly. Tweaked the PoPs for a
slightly faster end to the measurable rainfall tonight per
latest radar trends. Current plans are to let the Flood Watch
expire on time at midnight.

As of 256 PM Thursday...

Sfc low is analyzed to be near NE TN as of writing, with a quasi
stationary boundary draped to the NE of the low...extending into
west VA, SE WV and then eastward across southern VA. Notable
925-H85 frontogenetic forcing is prog to be occurring across SE
WV while H85-H7 frontogenetic forcing is enhanced along the I-79
corridor. Result has been bands of rain along these areas of
forcing with some enhancement to the rainfall efficiency occurring
at times. Due to an increase in training and increase in
forcing, the Flood Watch has been expanded westward by a row of
counties.

The rain should persist through the remainder of the afternoon
and gradually diminish in areal coverage and intensity during
the evening hours, as a parent mid level trough pushes east
across the region...and as the aforementioned surface low
approaches, and then shifts away from the area.

After the H5 trough axis shifts east overnight, much drier mid
level air will spread eastward across the region. If enough
clearing can occur overnight, areas of dense fog will be common.
Even if clearing does not occur, damp and moist near surface
conditions will likely still lead to some reduced visibilities.

Surface high pressure builds eastward into the area on Friday.
NAM indicates low clouds persisting until afternoon while the
GFS has faster clearing. If clouds hold, then max temps should
only be in the 60s, but 70s are likely if skies clear. Either
way, Friday should be a much drier day with only some patchy
light rain possible early in the morning across eastern WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...

Cold front crosses late Friday night with just some passing
clouds and high pressure will build in behind it. Saturday will
be an amazing day with low humidity and seasonable temperatures
under mostly sunny skies. By early Sunday, the high pressure
swings just to our east and allows warm air and moisture to
enter back into the region. Temperatures to close out the
weekend will likely turn upwards into the upper 70s to low 80s
for everywhere except the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Thursday...

Persistent high pressure/upper ridge will dominate through the
period. The good news is that this will likely provide us with
mostly dry conditions through the week. Temperatures will remain
above normal through the period. Ensembles and operational
guidance show the ridge migrating westward early in the work
week. This pattern, with predominantly westerly zonal flow,
could allow for a few short waves to move across the region.
Showers and thunderstorms would be possible, but coverage of
storms will basically depend on the time of day any waves push
through.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 536 PM Thursday...

Poor flight rules to prevail overnight across nearly all
aerodromes.

Large area of RA with embedded pockets of +RA continues to
plague much of WV and surrounding areas. The RA should gradually
diminish in areal coverage from west to east overnight, with
IFR/LIFR CIGs and VSBYs likely under steadier rainfall.

Once rain ends, drier air aloft will spread across nearly
saturated lower level moisture, which should lead to areas of
dense FG. LIFR to VLIFR expected overnight at nearly all
aerodromes. Gradual clearing then expected to prevail from west
to east during the day Friday with VFR in the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...Timing and extent of rain and associated
visibilities and ceilings tonight may differ. Formation of
widespread dense fog and stratus by dawn Friday may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 09/26/18
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in stratus and fog Friday night into Saturday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ013-015-016-018-
     024>030-033-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RH/MPK
NEAR TERM...ABE/RH
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...RH

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

VAZ003-004-WVZ013-015-016-018-024>030-033-034-039-040-515>526-281900-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Lincoln-Kanawha-Roane-Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-
Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-014-017-019-020-
031-032-281900-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Wirt-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Harrison-Taylor-
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
813 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLOOD            HAMLIN                  38.28N  82.10W
09/27/2018                   LINCOLN            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE ROADS BLOCKED BY FLOOD WATERS INCLUDING: BEAR
            FORK, LEFT FORK, RT 3 AT DUVAL MIDDLE SCHOOL, SYCAMORE
            CREEK, BULGER, 4 MILE, LITTLE HARTS AND TEN MILE ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800012

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
816 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLOOD            TAD                     38.33N  81.49W
09/27/2018                   KANAWHA            WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CAMBELLS CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800013

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
818 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLOOD            CASS                    38.40N  79.91W
09/27/2018                   POCAHONTAS         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEKS STARTING TO COME OUT OF BANKS NEAR CASS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800014

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
925 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

VAZ003-004-280330-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
925 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

...SHOWERS WILL AFFECT DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 923 PM EDT, showers over Buchanan and Dickenson counties were
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Clintwood, Grundy, Haysi, Breaks Interstate, Davenport, John
Flannagan Lake, Big Rock, Trammel, Paw Paw, Clinchco, Oakwood, Stacy,
Nora, Vansant, Hurley, McClure and Roseann.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect. Heavy downpours could cause
rapid rises in water. If rising water is observed, move to higher
ground. Do not drive into areas covered by water.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3702 8248 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235
      3754 8197 3753 8194 3751 8193 3747 8200
      3744 8194 3736 8193 3728 8185 3728 8179
      3725 8174 3720 8176 3718 8185 3713 8192
      3712 8200 3705 8204 3704 8217 3696 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 240DEG 35KT 3718 8238

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