Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
357 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system drifts through on Monday. Heat wave Tuesday through
Thursday. Cold front approaches late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 213 PM Sunday...

Quick update to issue heat advisory for most of the Lowlands
through the remainder of the afternoon. 18Z ASOS obs coming in
with 99-100 heat indices, with another hour or two of heating to
go. Dewpoints have been stubborn to budge thus far from morning
values, with low 70s common. Robust cu field expanding north to
I64 corridor, but shra/tsra have yet to get going, so it may be
too late before the damage is done regarding hitting criteria
(100-104 for 2 consecutive hours).

As of 130 PM Sunday...

As of 1730Z robust cu field was noted across northeast
KY/southern WV/southwest VA. Low and mid level moisture
advection will continue through the afternoon, as the upper
level ridge axis slides east of the area. Expect isolated showers
and storms to develop across aforementioned areas over the next
hour or two and become scattered in nature by 21z. This axis
nudges north early this evening through the I64 corridor and
perhaps portions of southeast Ohio. By this time though, the
activity should begin to wane with loss of heating. PWATs surge
to near 2 inches as the best moisture advection arrives, so
downpours can be expected in any robust shower or storm through
early evening.

An approaching s/w trof will keep mid level moisture advecting
into the area tonight. While shower/storm activity will wane
this evening, there should be at least scattered mid deck around
overnight. This should keep dense fog confined to the northern
mountain valleys. It will remain warm and muggy tonight.

The s/w trof axis dampens on approach Monday, with the
associated surface front putting on the breaks. There should be
two main areas to focus on for convection. One along the s/w
axis and ahead of surface front across southeast OH. The other
more along the deeper moisture axis across the eastern half of
the CWA. Outside of those locales isolated showers or storms are
expected. Downpours can be expected in any shower or storm with
PWATs continue to hover around 2 inches. Temps tomorrow were
nudged toward the lower end of guidance with the expectation of
cloud cover and late afternoon convection keeping numbers in
check. This may be enough to create a brief break in the heat
wave (90 degrees or higher) across the Lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...

The cold front is not expected to make it into the area, with
the upper ridge building back in for mid week. Although some
moisture will get trapped over the area, chances for
thunderstorms will be limited. This will allow for the heat and
humidity to continue, with afternoon heat indices for the
lowlands possibly reaching into the lower 100s through Thursday.
Continued to use MOS guidance for dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...

The upper level ridge will eventually retrograde westward for
the end of the week, allowing for troughing on the east coast.
This may allow a cold front into the area on Friday, increasing
the chances of showers and thunderstorms and tempering the heat
a bit.

All models are pushing the front south of the area for Saturday
and Sunday, but due to the time of year and typical model
weaknesses, concerned that models may be taking the front too
far south. Either way however, this should provide a break from
the excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

18z Sunday through 18Z Monday...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop in the
19-21Z time frame across southern WV, southwest VA, and
northeast KY. Expect brief MVFR/IFR conditions in vicinity of
storms. These may get close to the HTS/CRW terminals in the 22
to 00Z hours. I have covered this with VCTS with this issuance. Coverage
of storms will decrease after 01Z. Mid deck will linger across
much of the area overnight, helping to mitigate dense fog to
EKN. However, patchy IFR fog may develop at HTS/CRW should they
be affected by precipitation early this evening.

An approaching upper level system will provide the focus for
isolated development across the area by the end of the TAF
period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog restrictions
tonight may vary from forecast. Timing and coverage of
convection today may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-029-031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-029-031-
021945-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Harrison-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A heat wave is in store for much of the next work week. Heat indices
may approach 100 degrees Tuesday through Thursday during the
afternoon hours. Advisories for excessive heat may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ024>028-030-032-021945-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Taylor-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northern West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A heat wave is in store for much of the next work week. Heat indices
may approach 100 degrees Tuesday through Thursday during the
afternoon hours. Advisories for excessive heat may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>526-021945-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KANAWHA CITY            38.32N  81.58W
07/01/2018                   KANAWHA            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LARGE TREE APPROXIMATELY 3 FEET IN DIAMETER WAS DOWN
            ACROSS THE ROAD ALONG WITH POWER LINES DUE TO HIGH WIND
            NEAR 47TH STREET SE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800149

JZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE WEST SIDE         38.37N  81.64W
07/01/2018                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES FELL DOWN DUE TO HIGH WIND NEAR THE SAME AREA.
            ONE ON SWARTHMORE AVE AND HIGHLAND RD AND THE OTHER ON
            812 PARK AVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800151

JZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW RIVERVIEW         38.35N  81.60W
07/01/2018                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            2 TREES DOWN DUE TO HIGH WIND IN THE SAME AREA. ONE OFF
            GREENBRIER ST AND DEITRICK BLVD AND THE OTHER OFF
            GREENBRIER ST AND DUDLEY DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1800152

JZ

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