Alert archive / Kentucky / Special Weather Statements in 2018
Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV
NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Jul 1, 2018, 4:15 PM EDT for Greenup County, Kentucky. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 1, 2018, 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 1, 2018, 4:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Charleston, WV
County Greenup County, KY
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 642 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1484 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 12 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 1, 3:57 PM EDT, 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 3:57 PM EDT, 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
357 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system drifts through on Monday. Heat wave Tuesday through
Thursday. Cold front approaches late Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 213 PM Sunday...
Quick update to issue heat advisory for most of the Lowlands
through the remainder of the afternoon. 18Z ASOS obs coming in
with 99-100 heat indices, with another hour or two of heating to
go. Dewpoints have been stubborn to budge thus far from morning
values, with low 70s common. Robust cu field expanding north to
I64 corridor, but shra/tsra have yet to get going, so it may be
too late before the damage is done regarding hitting criteria
(100-104 for 2 consecutive hours).
As of 130 PM Sunday...
As of 1730Z robust cu field was noted across northeast
KY/southern WV/southwest VA. Low and mid level moisture
advection will continue through the afternoon, as the upper
level ridge axis slides east of the area. Expect isolated showers
and storms to develop across aforementioned areas over the next
hour or two and become scattered in nature by 21z. This axis
nudges north early this evening through the I64 corridor and
perhaps portions of southeast Ohio. By this time though, the
activity should begin to wane with loss of heating. PWATs surge
to near 2 inches as the best moisture advection arrives, so
downpours can be expected in any robust shower or storm through
early evening.
An approaching s/w trof will keep mid level moisture advecting
into the area tonight. While shower/storm activity will wane
this evening, there should be at least scattered mid deck around
overnight. This should keep dense fog confined to the northern
mountain valleys. It will remain warm and muggy tonight.
The s/w trof axis dampens on approach Monday, with the
associated surface front putting on the breaks. There should be
two main areas to focus on for convection. One along the s/w
axis and ahead of surface front across southeast OH. The other
more along the deeper moisture axis across the eastern half of
the CWA. Outside of those locales isolated showers or storms are
expected. Downpours can be expected in any shower or storm with
PWATs continue to hover around 2 inches. Temps tomorrow were
nudged toward the lower end of guidance with the expectation of
cloud cover and late afternoon convection keeping numbers in
check. This may be enough to create a brief break in the heat
wave (90 degrees or higher) across the Lowlands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...
The cold front is not expected to make it into the area, with
the upper ridge building back in for mid week. Although some
moisture will get trapped over the area, chances for
thunderstorms will be limited. This will allow for the heat and
humidity to continue, with afternoon heat indices for the
lowlands possibly reaching into the lower 100s through Thursday.
Continued to use MOS guidance for dewpoints.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM Sunday...
The upper level ridge will eventually retrograde westward for
the end of the week, allowing for troughing on the east coast.
This may allow a cold front into the area on Friday, increasing
the chances of showers and thunderstorms and tempering the heat
a bit.
All models are pushing the front south of the area for Saturday
and Sunday, but due to the time of year and typical model
weaknesses, concerned that models may be taking the front too
far south. Either way however, this should provide a break from
the excessive heat.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...
18z Sunday through 18Z Monday...
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop in the
19-21Z time frame across southern WV, southwest VA, and
northeast KY. Expect brief MVFR/IFR conditions in vicinity of
storms. These may get close to the HTS/CRW terminals in the 22
to 00Z hours. I have covered this with VCTS with this issuance. Coverage
of storms will decrease after 01Z. Mid deck will linger across
much of the area overnight, helping to mitigate dense fog to
EKN. However, patchy IFR fog may develop at HTS/CRW should they
be affected by precipitation early this evening.
An approaching upper level system will provide the focus for
isolated development across the area by the end of the TAF
period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density of fog restrictions
tonight may vary from forecast. Timing and coverage of
convection today may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
013>020-029-031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 3:42 PM EDT, 33 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-029-031- 021945- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington- Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason- Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt- Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Harrison- 342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Heat Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A heat wave is in store for much of the next work week. Heat indices may approach 100 degrees Tuesday through Thursday during the afternoon hours. Advisories for excessive heat may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. WVZ024>028-030-032-021945- Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Taylor- 342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia and southern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A heat wave is in store for much of the next work week. Heat indices may approach 100 degrees Tuesday through Thursday during the afternoon hours. Advisories for excessive heat may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-039-040-515>526-021945- Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh- Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette- Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster- Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas- Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph- 342 PM EDT Sun Jul 1 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and portions of northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 1, 4:15 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
KYZ101>103-012045-
Boyd-Greenup-Carter-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2018
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN BOYD...SOUTHEASTERN
GREENUP AND EAST CENTRAL CARTER COUNTIES...
At 414 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rush, or near
Grayson, moving north at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Grayson, Cannonsburg, Greenup, Princess, Coalton, Greenbo
Lake, Oldtown, Naples, Rush, Flatwoods, Russell, Raceland,
Worthington, Wurtland, Bellefonte, Westwood, Hopewell, Summit and
Mavity.
This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 172 and
186.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3859 8294 3857 8281 3856 8278 3856 8276
3855 8272 3854 8270 3849 8265 3826 8272
3829 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 189DEG 15KT 3835 8282
09The office that day
Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2:09 PM EDT | Heat Advisory | RLX | Cabell, Calhoun, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson and 11 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 1, 4:27 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Kanawha | 33 min |
| Jul 1, 4:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Kanawha, Putnam | 33 min |
| Jul 1, 5:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Kanawha, Lincoln, Putnam | 23 min |
| Jul 1, 5:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Kanawha, Mason, Putnam | 36 min |
| Jul 1, 6:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Cabell, Mason, Putnam | 24 min |
| Jul 1, 6:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Lincoln, Logan, Mingo, Wayne | 48 min |
| Jul 1, 6:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Jackson, Mason, Putnam | 32 min |
| Jul 1, 7:02 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RLX | Kanawha | 3 hr |
| Jul 1, 7:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Mingo, Wayne | 35 min |
| Jul 1, 7:26 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RLX | Cabell, Wayne | 3 hr |
| Jul 1, 7:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RLX | Wayne | 36 min |
| Jul 1, 6:53 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Gallia | 37 min |
| Jul 1, 7:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Vinton | 30 min |
| Jul 1, 6:20 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Carter | 25 min |
| Jul 1, 7:12 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RLX | Boyd | 33 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Kentucky, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.