Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
608 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation decreases as low pressure exits to the east, with
Arctic air mass in its wake. Low pressure crosses Monday into
Tuesday, followed by another arctic high to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

No significant changes necessary to the inherited forecast.
Precipitation at 07Z has changed to snow area wide. Moderate
accumulations have been occurring across parts of southeast Ohio,
with generally light accumulations, less than an inch received so
far across advisory areas. Precipitation will gradually taper off
later this morning, as upper shortwave trough and surface low kick
off to our north and east. Could still see a brief period of upslope
snow showers through late this morning, but deeper moisture will
gradually erode, with this threat also ending. In addition, with
strong CAA behind the front, gusty winds will continue for much of
the day, along with temperatures falling for much of the morning
hours, before becoming somewhat steady by late morning or early
afternoon. Some peaks in the cloud cover possible as the day/evening
progresses, but should overall remain relatively cloudy for much of
the day.

High pressure will gradually build in late tonight, with
decreasing winds, and some clearing, particularly across southeast
Ohio. Temperatures will be tricky late tonight, based on amount of
clearing, but think single digits will be common area wide, with
below zero possible in some mountainous locations. It's also
possible, that parts of southeast Ohio could go below zero tonight
with snow pack, and with a greater likelihood of ideal radiational
cooling setup. Have lowered overnight low temperatures everywhere
for tonight, but particularly across southeast Ohio.

Lastly, several area rivers, mainly across northern WV and southeast
Ohio have seen strong rises overnight, and some minor flooding is
occurred. A general inch to 2.5 inches of rain has fallen in the
last 2 days, along with ice melt. Expect this to continue through at
least this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Saturday...

Arctic high pressure over the area Sunday morning, drifts away
to the northeast Sunday afternoon and night.

A positively tilted upper level short wave trough digs
southeastward through the midwest Sunday night through Monday
night. This brings warm advection, with the chance for light
snow into the middle Ohio Valley Monday. Boundary layer
temperatures may get high enough ahead of the system for
inconsequential liquid hydrometeors south.

The surface low then drags a cold front through the area Monday
night, as it tracks to the north, bringing the chance for light
snow area wide. With limited moisture to work with, this looks
to be about a one to two inch light snowfall.

Went a little under central guidance temperatures in the stable
arctic air Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 420 AM Saturday...

An upper level short wave trough approaching the area in the
short term, swings through the forecast area Tuesday into
Wednesday, taking on a more neutral tilt as it moves through
the eastern CONUS long wave trough position.

A surface cold front crosses first thing Tuesday morning, with
upslope snow showers in and near the mountains, in ts wake,
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The slight chance for snow continues
across eastern portions of the area even into Wednesday. This
reflects the possibility of an east coast low tracking close to
the coast.

A large arctic high crosses Thursday through Friday, before
yielding to a southerly flow of milder air in its wake, to
start the weekend.

Central guidance temperatures generally accepted, except went a
little lower at night, especially in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Saturday...

Light snow showers will gradually taper off across the area
from west to east, ending across southeast Ohio, northeast KY,
and adjacent WV counties by 15Z, and tapering off elsewhere by
18Z. Some gradual improvement to widespread MVFR is expected,
particularly after 15-18Z, with improvement to local VFR after
21Z, mainly across parts of the lowlands. Some areas will remain
MVFR through at least 03Z or later.

In addition, gusty northwesterly winds with gusts in the 20 to
30 kt range through 12-14Z, when gusts will decrease into the
teens, eventually becoming less than 10 kts after 22Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary from
current forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 01/13/18
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    L    H    H    L    L

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in snow Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     KYZ102-103-105.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
453 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-
141000-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
453 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

KYZ101-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-141000-
Greenup-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-
453 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

WVZ007>011-014>020-027>031-131445-
MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF POINT PLEASANT, NEW HAVEN, RAVENSWOOD,
RIPLEY, PARKERSBURG, VIENNA, ST. MARYS, BELMONT, PADEN CITY,
SISTERSVILLE, MIDDLEBOURNE, TEAYS VALLEY, HURRICANE, CHARLESTON,
SOUTH CHARLESTON, SAINT ALBANS, SPENCER, ELIZABETH, GRANTSVILLE,
HARRISVILLE, PENNSBORO, WEST UNION, CLAY, SUTTON, GASSAWAY,
BURNSVILLE, GLENVILLE, WESTON, CLARKSBURG, AND BRIDGEPORT
342 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Even as colder air was rushing into the area, rapid river and
stream rises were occurring overnight. This was in response to
one and a half to two and a half inches of rain that fell over the
past two days, in addition to snow melt. Some of streams were
approaching bankfull, and even some rivers were getting high
enough to cause some flooding of the most vulnerable low lying
areas along them.

There were isolated reports of roads blocked by high water.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it
is harder to recognize the depth of the water.

TRM

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