Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough crossing central North Carolina will move to
our east this evening. An upper level low pressure system will
strengthen and settle over Ohio tonight through Sunday, bringing
humid and unsettled weather to North Carolina as it drifts eastward
over the central Appalachians through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 PM Saturday...

Continued high pops over the eastern two-thirds of central NC for
the next several hours. The environment remains ripe to support
strong to severe convection, as the mid level shortwave trough
crosses the region (albeit in a weaker state as it progressively
dampens). MLCAPE continues to climb amid strong heating so far
today, up to 2000-3000 J/kg, including 600-800 J/kg within the -10C
to -30C zone supportive of vigorous updrafts, while effective deep
layer shear sits around 25 kts. Storms have generally favored
formation near the surface mass convergence zone just ahead of the
850 mb trough across our far N and NW, with another band near the
CAPE gradient over the Sandhills. Storms should continue to fill in,
with greatest coverage over the central/E CWA through early evening.
Greatest threats remain heavy rain (above normal PW) and strong
winds (DCAPE approaching 800 J/kg). Rather poor mid level lapse
rates should make hail a secondary threat. Pops are expected to
gradually trail off over W sections with a short period of post-wave
subsidence and slight column drying, but will keep chance pops going
through the night in the E with lingering high PW. Lows 69-73. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

The mid-upper low will close off over Ohio Sun, resulting in a dip
in mid level heights and an increase in southwesterly mid level
winds over NC. PW will stay above normal, particularly over E NC,
and the NAM Nest shows broad destabilization potential, in the 2000-
3000 J/kg range, over all of central NC Sun afternoon. Mid level
DPVA will be weak, but the strengthening upper jet to our north will
lead to robust upper divergence, focused over the N CWA late. With
the mid level speed max brushing by our N and NW sections, deep
layer shear may be enough to support a few strong to severe storms
once again. Coverage should be greatest over the N and E CWA, and
will have likely pops over this area with lower chances SW. Will
maintain convection chances into the night, albeit with a decrease
in coverage and intensity, focused mainly across the far N and E.
Highs 85-90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

On Monday an upper level low will move from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic States and its corresponding surface low will push a
cold front into North Carolina. Focus for convection will be along
and ahead of this boundary on Monday which should set up to be
primarily east of US 1 by peak heating. CAPE values will be highest
in the extreme southeast but will be plenty sufficient throughout
the eastern half of the CWA with values of surface based approaching
and surpassing 2000J/KG. At the same time bulk shear values of
greater than 30 kts can be expected across the east as well. PW
values are not overly impressive at 1.5 inches.

By Tuesday morning the front should clear the CWA leading to a drier
period but not necessarily all that cooler with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s and then warming back into the low 90s for the middle
of the week. By Thursday, a low moving through the Great Lakes and
into Quebec will drag the tail end of a disturbance through northern
portions of the area but it is too early to tell whether or not this
will have any significant impacts as far as any precipitation across
the north on Friday night. Only introducing slight chances as this
time.

By Friday an upper trough starts to deepen across the Tennessee
Valley and translating slowly eastward through the weekend. This
will increase convective chances for the area on Saturday although
this feature is not well resolved yet in the models  and there is
some question of how deep the trough will actually get. Therefore
introducing chance pops at this time. Highs during this time still
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows through the period in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

VFR conditions (at all sites but GSO, although they will improve to
VFR in the next hour) will give way to scattered to numerous showers
and storms over the area 18z-03z, producing local MVFR to IFR
conditions (and perhaps briefly LIFR) as well as strong and shifting
winds with surface gusts over 40 kts possible. The prime windows of
greatest storm coverage will be as follows: 18z-22z at INT/GSO, 19z-
03z at FAY, and 20z-02z at RDU/RWI. The storms are likely to
organize into bands or clusters, and may not be easily
circumnavigable. After the storms diminish and mostly exit after 04z
(a few showers may linger near RDU/RWI/FAY overnight), VFR
conditions should then return, although a period of MVFR vsbys and
IFR cigs are possible 08z-13z particularly at RWI/FAY/RDU. Any low
clouds/fog will slowly lift and disperse Sun morning, yielding
mainly VFR conditions after 16z. More numerous showers and storms
are likely Sun afternoon, and development of these will begin toward
the end of the TAF valid period.

Looking beyond 18z Sun, above-normal (greater coverage as compared
to a typical summer day) shower/storm chances will continue Sun/Mon,
mainly each afternoon/evening, followed by low shower/storm chances
Tue/Wed/Thu. The risk of early-morning low clouds or fog is low
through this period. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
434 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-120930-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
434 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
through this evening. The main severe weather hazards will be
locally damaging wind gusts, and torrential downpours which may lead
to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect Central North
Carolina Sunday through Tuesday, accompanied by heavy downpours. The
repetition of showers and storms with heavy rain may trigger
episodes of localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-074-083-120930-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-
Montgomery-Anson-
434 AM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An isolated severe thunderstorm or two may occur Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening. The main severe weather hazard will be
locally damaging wind gusts.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect central North
Carolina Sunday through Tuesday, accompanied by heavy downpours. The
repetition of showers and storms with heavy rain may trigger episodes
of localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
357 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NCZ042-078-112030-
Johnston-Wayne-
357 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF southeastern
Johnston and central Wayne Counties Until 430 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 miles northwest of Goldsboro...MOVING northeast
AT 30 MPH.

Hail up to the size of peas AND Wind gusts up to 40 mph WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Goldsboro...Fremont...Pine Level...Princeton...Pikeville...Eureka...
Mar-Mac...Nahunta and Grantham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 7826 3548 7833 3559 7808 3557 7785
      3541 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 246DEG 24KT 3546 7809

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
543 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NCZ089-112215-
Sampson-
543 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF central
Sampson County Until 615 PM EDT...

At 543 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS along a line extending from 7 miles
northeast of Ammon to NEAR Warsaw...AND MOVING east AT 10 MPH.

Hail up to the size of peas AND Wind gusts up to 40 mph WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Clinton...Roseboro...Garland and Turkey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 7839 3478 7843 3481 7845 3484 7849
      3486 7849 3487 7851 3488 7851 3490 7855
      3491 7854 3491 7856 3493 7857 3509 7817
      3508 7816 3492 7815 3482 7817 3473 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 286DEG 7KT 3487 7848 3500 7817

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
545 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NCZ011-027-028-043-112230-
Edgecombe-Nash-Halifax-Wilson-
545 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS along a line extending from NEAR
Scotland Neck to NEAR Rocky Mount...AND MOVING east AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Rocky Mount...Tarboro...Nashville...Halifax...Scotland Neck...
Dortches...Red Oak...Enfield...Princeville and Sharpsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3593 7736 3568 7766
      3604 7800 3633 7758 3630 7755 3632 7744
      3629 7741 3626 7741 3624 7738 3621 7738
      3619 7735 3619 7733 3617 7731 3617 7729
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 290DEG 15KT 3618 7740 3598 7772

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
713 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

NCZ089-112345-
Sampson-
713 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF central Sampson
County Until 745 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 miles east of Godwin...or 14 miles northwest
of Clinton...MOVING northeast AT 35 MPH.

Hail up to the size of peas AND Wind gusts up to 40 mph WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Clinton...Roseboro...Garland...Salemburg...Autryville and Spivey's
Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 7851 3488 7851 3490 7855 3491 7854
      3495 7861 3499 7864 3524 7862 3531 7854
      3496 7817 3478 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 215DEG 29KT 3516 7849