Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1013 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move into central NC this evening,
then linger tonight. A cold front will move south through NC on
Monday, then stall over SC Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1012 PM Sunday...

Convection continues to form on a surface trough as it moves across
the CWA increasing in coverage and intensity during the last couple
of hours. Storms should remain below severe limits but if severe
storms were to occur the most likely area would be the extreme
northeast along the VA border. Otherwise, the HRRR has the best
handle on the current situation and it continues to weaken
convection as it moves eastward, with it ending before reaching I-
95. Overnight tonight, some patchy for or low stratus is possible
but coverage should be significantly reduced from previous nights.
Lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Sunday...

 Monday and Monday night, a sfc cold front, currently stalled across
the northern Mid Atlantic , will begin to move southward later
Monday and Monday night, thanks to a s/w rotating southward across
New England. The forcing along this front will interact with a moist
atmosphere in place. At this time, there appears that there will be
enough time for the atmosphere to destabilize sufficiently
(projected MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) to support scattered-numerous
showers and storms. While the bulk of the convection should remain
below severe thresholds, initial storms out ahead of the main
convective band will have the best potential to produce locally
damaging wind gusts. Would not be surprised to see localized
flooding in urban areas with the convection as rainfall rates
expected to be torrential, and deep west-nw flow may lead to
training echoes, especially Monday night.

 Highs temperatures Monday dependent upon the hours of sun prior to
convection initiation. Appears that a large part of central NC
should see 6-8 hours of sunshine, leading to max temps well into the
80s to around 90 north half and lower 90s across the south.

 The cold front expected to move southward across central NC Monday
night. Northeasterly flow behind the front will advect a more stable
and cooler air mass. This should lead to a blanket of low clouds
with patchy light rain, mainly after 2 AM. Overnight temperatures
will vary from the mid 60s far north to around 70 across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

The leading edge of a cooler airmass will make its way southward on
Tuesday as surface high pressure migrates across New England. The
surface pattern will assume the appearance of a CAD event on Tuesday
as the front stalls across South Carolina. Highest chances for
convection will be in southern and eastern areas closest to the
frontal zone. Only lighter showers are expected across the remainder
(Piedmont) of the area, as overrunning/isentropic lift will be
nearly non-existent in the weak low level flow regime. The modestly
cooler airmass will be shallow and readily scoured by the passage of
a short wave and its associated surface front Tuesday night. Highs
on Tuesday will range from the upper 70s across the northern tier to
the lower 80s across the south. Convection will will taper down
Tuesday night as the front weakens with low level flow backing
around to southwest ahead of the approaching system.

There is some uncertainty as to timing of drying which will follow
the front moving across the area on Wednesday. Regardless, chance
for rain will be graduated from low chance northwest to good chances
in the Coastal Plain where moisture/instability will be greater.
Highs will rise back into the upper 80s and lower 90s as we expect
some sunshine due to at least modest drying in downslope flow.

Forecast uncertainty increases as we head into the late week and the
weekend. General troffing lingers over the east coast to maintain
the warmer than normal airmass and provide sufficient moisture to
produce diurnally driven convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 830 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the 24
hour TAF period, outside of any convection this evening and again
Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are expected this evening, with the best chance across the
northern TAF sites (KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KRWI). The strongest storms will
produce gusty winds and IFR/LIFR conditions. Otherwise, with more of
a southwesterly to westerly low level wind overnight expect less in
the way of any fog and/or stratus (unless a given sites sees
any meaningful precip this evening).

The approach of a sfc front from the north should increase the
coverage of showers and t-storms across central NC compared to the
past few days. At this time, the timing favors late Monday afternoon
into most of Monday night. Thus, expect increasing coverage of
showers and storms on Monday afternoon into the evening, with lower
cigs expected to move into the area behind the front on Monday
evening/night (generally after the 24 hour TAF period).

Outlook: Ceilings are expected to lower to low end MVFR/IFR
parameters, with a LIFR ceilings probable between 09Z-16Z Tuesday
along with a continued high threat of showers and isolated storms.
At this time the IFR/low end MVFR ceilings should persist through
Tuesday night. A gradual improvement in ceilings is anticipated by
late Wednesday into Wednesday night. VFR conditions should dominate
most of Thursday and Friday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin
AVIATION...BSD/WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1022 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-111000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1022 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday will result in locally
heavy rainfall and an associated risk of flooding, particularly in
urban and poor drainage areas. Strong to severe wind gusts may also
accompany the most intense thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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