Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Raleigh, NC

715 
WWUS52 KRAH 112133
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
533 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCC085-093-105-125-112143-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-180611T2215Z/
Moore NC-Harnett NC-Lee NC-Hoke NC-
533 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MOORE...SOUTHWESTERN
HARNETT...SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3506 7948 3507 7957 3509 7958 3512 7957
      3519 7966 3524 7967 3525 7969 3551 7977
      3552 7935 3554 7931 3554 7926 3524 7896
      3504 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 331DEG 11KT 3539 7929 

$$

23

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
355 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south through central North Carolina
during the evening and then stall across south Carolina on
Tuesday morning. High pressure will extend across North Carolina
on Tuesday and Tuesday night before another cold front
approaches from the northwest late Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Monday...

Focus for scattered-numerous convection will be centered across the
southern and western sections of the forecast area as a sfc front
drifts south-southwestward across central NC through early this
evening. The severe parameters favor the western and southern
Piedmont but the thresholds appear fairly minimal so locally
strong/damaging wind gusts appear to be the main hazard. The deep
wly flow over the region may cause the showers and storms to train
repeatedly along the southward drifting sfc front. This threat
appears greatest along a Lexington-Southern Pines-Clinton line.

Northeasterly low level flow behind the front advecting a cooler
more stable air mass into the far NE Piedmont and northern Coastal
Plain. While this should inhibit strong convective development,
scattered showers and a few storms are still possible through early
evening. A layer of low clouds has advanced as far south and west as
the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. This layer of low clouds
should progress south and cover most of the region by early evening.

Overnight temperatures will cool into the low-mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Monday...

A cool stable air mass will reside over central NC Tuesday as a low
level nely flow gradually veers to an ely direction. A subsidence
inversion in the mid levels of the atmosphere will trap the low
level moisture, maintaining the deck of stratus over our region.
There is the potential for erosion on the south and east sides of
the cloud deck, or roughly across sections of the Coastal Plain and
the Sandhills. Where the erosion occurs, the differential heating
will cause the atmosphere to become unstable, leading to the
development of scattered convection in the mid-late afternoon,
persisting until sunset.

The low cloud deck will result in high temperatures well below
normal, ranging from the mid-upper 70s across the far north to the
lower 80s south.

The low level winds should continue to veer to a south-southwest
direction. This should begin to erode the cloud deck further,
possibly leading to partly cloudy skies prior to daybreak Wednesday.
Min temps generally 65-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

The upper-air pattern at the beginning of the long term period
features one ridge over the southern Plains and another over the
southwestern Atlantic with a weak trough across the mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas. At the surface, a decaying front is
expected across the coastal Carolinas with another cold front
approaching from the southern Appalachians.

Central NC will likely be in between frontal systems with limited
forcing and limited storm coverage on Wednesday with the best
chance of diurnally enhanced convection across the east on
Thursday as the second cold front shifts east. Highs both days
will range in the lower 90s with a few upper 80s near the VA
border. Lows will range in the lower 70s.

As the front stalls to the south on Friday, central NC will
experience a cooler and more stable northeasterly flow with
convective chances focused in a crescent from southeastern NC to the
west and northwest near the SC border into the NC mountains. This
pattern will continue into Saturday as the northwest flow aloft on
the backside of a western Atlantic trough amplifies into a closed
low off of Cape Hatteras. The slightly cooler air mass will support
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows around 70.

The upper flow becomes northerly on Sunday into Monday as the
upper-level flow between the closed low off the mid-Atlantic coast
and the ridge over the TN valley. Given the pattern, will keep
precipitation chances on the low end and focused during
diurnally favorable time of day. Highs will range in the upper
80s to near 90 with lows in the upper 60s to near 70. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

 Aviation conditions will deteriorate northeast to southwest across
central NC through 02Z as a sfc cold front glides southward across
the region. Along and ahead of the front, scattered-numerous
thunderstorms will occur. In vicinity of the convection, anticipate
MVFR conditions along with wind gusts 30-40kts (with the stronger
convection). Behind the front, low level north northeast flow will
advect a stable and cooler air mass. Moisture in the lowest 5k feet
of the atmosphere will result in a layer of stratus with ceilings
1000-2000ft. After 00Z, ceilings behind the front will likely lower
into the IFR category. Convection after 00z will be mainly confined
to the southern counties, with the bulk of the convection
dissipating or exiting the region by 03Z.

 Overnight into Tuesday, widespread low stratus should prevail with
IFR ceilings in the early morning slowly lifting to MVFR by mid day.
The low ceilings will persist through Tuesday evening. Improving
ceilings anticipated Wednesday as the low level flow becomes sw,
aiding to scour out the low clouds.

 Wednesday through Saturday will feature mostly VFR parameters with
periods of MVFR conditions associated with afternoon-early evening
scattered convection, and early morning low clouds.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
546 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-121000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
546 AM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
merge and organize into clusters capable of producing strong to
severe wind gusts this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall,
with an associated risk of flooding mainly in urban and poor
drainage areas, will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ023-039-040-112045-
Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-
345 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ALAMANCE...EAST
CENTRAL RANDOLPH AND NORTHWESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Siler City. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Siler City, Liberty, Ramseur, Staley and Hasty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 7967 3589 7951 3580 7924 3558 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 318DEG 3KT 3579 7953

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
349 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ075-086-112030-
Hoke NC-Moore NC-
349 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND
NORTHWESTERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Aberdeen, or near Southern Pines, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Pinebluff, Foxfire and Ashley
Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 7956 3521 7953 3520 7920 3495 7931
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 288DEG 8KT 3514 7947

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
404 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ041-042-077-112100-
Johnston NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
404 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HARNETT...SOUTH
CENTRAL WAKE AND WEST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Garner, or 15 miles south of Raleigh, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Lillington, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, Angier, Coats, Four
Oaks, Coats Crossroads, Buies Creek and Lake Benson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 7884 3569 7855 3548 7833 3535 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 335DEG 11KT 3559 7862

Ellis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
425 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     LIGHTNING        7 E HOBBTON             35.17N 78.20W
06/11/2018                   SAMPSON            NC   PUBLIC

            HOME IMPROVEMENT STORE HIT BY LIGHTNING,
            CAUSING EXTENSIVE ELECTRICAL DAMAGE. THE
            LIGHTNING TRAVELED THROUGH THE PHONE LINE
            AND FRIED THE TV, OVEN, AND MICROWAVE. OWNER
            ESTIMATES $4000-$5000 IN DAMAGES.

&&

JFD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
510 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ077-088-112215-
Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
510 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARNETT AND NORTHWESTERN
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 510 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Lillington, moving south at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Angier, Pope AFB, Spring Lake,
Wade, Linden, Raven Rock State Park and Pineview.

LAT...LON 3514 7911 3519 7910 3521 7915 3523 7916
      3548 7902 3556 7894 3555 7881 3553 7875
      3512 7872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 003DEG 6KT 3549 7886

Ellis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
514 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             5 SE SEMINOLE           35.42N 78.94W
06/11/2018  E1.00 INCH       HARNETT            NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT A FAMILY
            DOLLAR STORE IN LILLINGTON.

&&

JFD