Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Raleigh, NC

September 16, 20189 counties in North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this flash flood warning at Sep 16, 2018, 4:22 PM EDT for 9 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 20 hr. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 16, 2018, 4:22 PM EDT (20:22 UTC)
Expired
Sep 17, 2018, 12:15 PM EDT
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Alamance County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Orange County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Wake County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 16, 6:13 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 Sw Ulah, NCHIGH PINE CHURCH RD CLOSED.
Sep 16, 7:48 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD3 Wsw Gordontown, NCYOUNG RD NEAR REGAN RD IS IMPASSABLE.
Sep 16, 11:55 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Sse Asheboro, NCEM CALLED TO REPORT LOTS OF FLOODING BEING REPORTED. 3 HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE TAKEN PLACE WITH UP TO 50 ROADS CLOSED.
Sep 16, 11:55 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Sse Asheboro, NCEM CALLED TO REPORT LOTS OF FLOODING BEING REPORTED. 3 HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE TAKEN PLACE WITH UP TO 50 ROADS CLOSED ACROSS RANDOLPH COUNTY. --CORRECTED
Sep 17, 12:20 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Se Chapel Hill, NCCAMELOT VILLAGE NEAR BOLIN CREEK IS BEING EVACUATED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.
Sep 17, 1:45 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Ssw Greensboro, NCFLASH FLOODING REPORTED ACROSS THE CITY OF GREENSBORO. MULTIPLE PEOPLE RESCUED FROM FLOODED VEHICLES. PORTIONS OF THE PINECROFT APARTMENTS ARE BEING EVACUATED.
Sep 17, 3:25 AM EDTFLASH FLOODAsheboro, NCBETWEEN 9PM AND 1AM, RANDOLPH COUNTY EM TOOK AROUND 100 REPORTS OF TREES DOWN AND FLOODED ROADS. THREE WATER RESCUES FROM VEHICLES TOOK PLACE AND SEVERAL CITIZEN WERE ASSISTED FROM FLOODED HOMES. FLASH FLOOD WATERS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO RECEDE LEAVING SOME WASH
Sep 17, 9:00 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Sw Chapel Hill, NCNUMEROUS ROADS IN ORANGE COUNTY ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATERS. THIS LIST INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO JONES FERRY ROAD BRIDGE AT UNIVERSITY LAKE, EASTGATE CROSSING AND UNIVERSITY PLACE PARKING LOTS IN CHAPEL HILL. AT WHITFIELD ROAD, THE ROAD IS WASHED O
Sep 17, 9:00 AM EDTFLASH FLOODPittsboro, NCSEVERAL ROADS IN CHATHAM COUNTY ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS LIST INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO: U.S. 15-501 SOUTH AT THE DEEP RIVER, MORRIS ROAD BETWEEN PARKER HERNDON ROAD AND U.S. 15-501, CORINTH ROAD BETWEEN OLD U.S. 1 AND MONCURE FLATWOOD R

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 9 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 111 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-09-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 6 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-09-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 238 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
6 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
658 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
238 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
367 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

970 
WGUS52 KRAH 162022
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-170215-
/O.NEW.KRAH.FF.W.0061.180916T2022Z-180917T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
422 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Alamance County in central North Carolina...
  Forsyth County in central North Carolina...
  Davidson County in central North Carolina...
  Orange County in central North Carolina...
  North central Harnett County in central North Carolina...
  Randolph County in central North Carolina...
  Guilford County in central North Carolina...
  Southwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
  Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 1015 PM EDT

* At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the 
  warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and 
  additional bands of heavy rain will continuously move into the 
  warned area through this evening. Flash flooding is expected to 
  begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Cary, High Point, Chapel Hill,
  Burlington, Asheboro, Lexington, Graham and Hillsborough.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood 
prone area, move to higher ground. Turn around, don't drown when 
encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. 
Stay away or be swept away. Do not enter or cross flowing water or 
water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

10
6 follow-up statements
716 
WGUS72 KRAH 162304
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
704 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-170215-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180917T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamance NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Orange NC-Harnett NC-Randolph NC-
Guilford NC-Wake NC-Chatham NC-
704 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT FOR
ALAMANCE...FORSYTH...DAVIDSON...ORANGE...NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT...
RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES...

At 701 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across most of the 
central and western piedmont. Up to two inches of rain have already 
fallen, and gages along Buffalo Creek indicate rapid rises and 
flash flooding imminent.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the 
Triad area this evening and overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood
prone area, move to higher ground.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

Smith
120 
WGUS52 KRAH 170158
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-170515-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180917T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
958 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Alamance County in central North Carolina...
  Forsyth County in central North Carolina...
  Davidson County in central North Carolina...
  Orange County in central North Carolina...
  North central Harnett County in central North Carolina...
  Randolph County in central North Carolina...
  Guilford County in central North Carolina...
  Southwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
  Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 115 AM EDT

* At 956 PM EDT,  Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across most of 
  the central and western piedmont. Up to two inches of rain have 
  already fallen, and gages along Buffalo Creek indicate rapid rises 
  and flash flooding imminent.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from the heavy rain will cause flash flooding of
creeks and streams, roads, low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not
drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road. Many roads
and intersections in the area will quickly flood. When encountering
flooded roads, turn around, don't drown.

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood
prone area, move to higher ground.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

HAINES
022 
WGUS72 KRAH 170441
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1241 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-170515-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180917T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamance NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Orange NC-Harnett NC-Randolph NC-
Guilford NC-Wake NC-Chatham NC-
1241 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM EDT FOR
ALAMANCE...FORSYTH...DAVIDSON...ORANGE...NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT...
RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES...

At 1237 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned 
area. Emergency management in Randolph reported lots of flooding 
calls with 3 high water rescues occurring as well as up to 50 roads 
closed across the county. Also in Orange County, Camelot village 
near Bolin creek is evacuating due to high water. Flash flooding is 
occurring!

Additional rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from the heavy rain will cause flash flooding of
creeks and streams, roads, low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not
drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road. Many roads
and intersections in the area will quickly flood. When encountering
flooded roads, turn around, don't drown.

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood
prone area, move to higher ground.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

HAINES
233 
WGUS52 KRAH 170442
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-171145-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180917T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1242 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Alamance County in central North Carolina...
  Forsyth County in central North Carolina...
  Davidson County in central North Carolina...
  Orange County in central North Carolina...
  North central Harnett County in central North Carolina...
  Randolph County in central North Carolina...
  Guilford County in central North Carolina...
  Southwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
  Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 745 AM EDT Monday

* At 1241 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the 
  warned area. Emergency management in Randolph reported lots of 
  flooding calls with 3 high water rescues occurring as well as up 
  to 50 roads closed across the county. Also in Orange County, 
  Camelot village near Bolin creek is evacuating due to high water. 
  Flash flooding is occurring!

Additional rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from the heavy rain will cause flash flooding of
creeks and streams, roads, low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not
drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road. Many roads
and intersections in the area will quickly flood. When encountering
flooded roads, turn around, don't drown.

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood
prone area, move to higher ground.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

HAINES
183 
WGUS72 KRAH 170554
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
154 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-171145-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180917T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alamance NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-Orange NC-Harnett NC-Randolph NC-
Guilford NC-Wake NC-Chatham NC-
154 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ALAMANCE...FORSYTH...DAVIDSON...ORANGE...NORTH CENTRAL HARNETT...
RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES...

At 152 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated rainfall across the warned 
area. Emergency management in Randolph County reported lots of 
flooding calls with 3 high water rescues occurring as well as up to 
50 roads closed across the county. Also in Orange County, Camelot 
village near Bolin creek is evacuating due to high water. Multiple 
reports of flash flooding also in Guilford county now, in 
particular near Buffalo Creek. Flash flooding is occurring!

Additional rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" are possible in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from the heavy rain will cause flash flooding of
creeks and streams, roads, low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not
drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road. Many roads
and intersections in the area will quickly flood. When encountering
flooded roads, turn around, don't drown.

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood
prone area, move to higher ground.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

Haines
329 
WGUS52 KRAH 171047
FFWRAH
NCC001-037-057-067-081-085-135-151-183-171615-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-180917T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
647 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Alamance County in central North Carolina...
  Forsyth County in central North Carolina...
  Davidson County in central North Carolina...
  Orange County in central North Carolina...
  North central Harnett County in central North Carolina...
  Randolph County in central North Carolina...
  Guilford County in central North Carolina...
  Southwestern Wake County in central North Carolina...
  Chatham County in central North Carolina...

* Until 1215 PM EDT

* At 647 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated rainfall across the warned 
  area. Emergency management in Randolph County reported lots of 
  flooding calls with 3 high water rescues occurring as well as up 
  to 50 roads closed across the county. Also in Orange County, 
  Camelot village near Bolin creek is evacuating due to high water. 
  Multiple reports of flash flooding also in Guilford county now, in 
  particular near Buffalo Creek. Flash flooding is occurring!

Additional rainfall amounts of 1" to 3" are possible in the warned 
area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from the heavy rain will cause flash flooding of
creeks and streams, roads, low lying and poor drainage areas. Do not
drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the road. Many roads
and intersections in the area will quickly flood. When encountering
flooded roads, turn around, don't drown.

Flash flooding is extremely dangerous. Numerous roads and low lying
areas will quickly flood. Flood waters will also threaten some homes
and businesses. If you are experiencing flooding or live in a flood
prone area, move to higher ground.

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth. 

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8044 3626 8045 3624 7896 3586 7902
      3587 7891 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7897
      3563 7912 3556 7920 3557 7924 3552 7935
      3551 8018 3572 8033 3574 8046 3589 8037
      3601 8042 3608 8052

$$

HAINES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 16, 3:35 PM EDT, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 16, 3:35 PM EDT, 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of Tropical Depression Florence will move north-
northwest over the Mountains of North Carolina tonight, then
turn north and northeast through Lower Ohio Valley and
northern Mid-Atlantic States Monday and Tuesday. Attendant trailing
surface trough move cross the region on Tuesday. Much drier and warm
weather will arrive as high pressure builds over North Carolina mid
to late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Sunday...

Deep SE flow (40-50+ kts at 850 mb) will continue to channel
tropical moisture (2.0 to 2.5 PWATS, per satellite derived Blended
Precip Water) into the area, gradually shift west and northwest into
the western half of central NC.

Florence had finally started to pick up some forward speed, tracking
west-northwest around 10 mph. This will allow the primary heavy rain
band that has been focused across the southern portions of the
forecast to pivot west-northwest across the western half of the
forecast area through tonight. Aided by orographic lift, widespread
heavy rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches can be expected. The
flooding threat will continue through the night.

In the NE, showers will be more intermittent and likely to exhibit
some diurnal enhancement/flare at times through late afternoon, as
models show 500 to 1000 J/Kg developing across the eastern zones.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches is possible, with the
lowest QPF expected across the NE.

Additionally, given the slightly more robust instability and
potential for some temporary breaks in cloud cover, a brief spin up
of a weak meso tornado may be higher than previous days.

Will not make any changes to current flood watch, which was extended
last night through 12z Mon.

Lows tonight 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Sunday...

The coverage and intensity of rainfall over central NC will decrease
Monday morning as the remnants of Florence lift north and away into
the lower Ohio Valley. We will still have the potential for very
heavy rain through the morning as a surface trough moves east
through the region. Showers are expected to become scattered during
the afternoon, with locally heavy rain still expected (more
localized).

Moisture will remain fairly deep over central NC, primarily over
central and E sections where PW will be near 2", lower than recent
values but above the climatological normal. We should see scattered
showers and a few storms Monday afternoon into the evening, with the
best coverage over the NW and north central sections where weak DPVA
is anticipated.

Models depict a surface front and mid level trough shifting east
through the area Tuesday afternoon, when we'll likely see a band of
scattered thunderstorms moving NW to SE (40-50 POP).

POPS will become NIL (finally) after midnight Tuesday as the cold
front moves to the coast.

Highs general in the 80-86 range Monday, then mid to upper 80s
Tuesday. Lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM Sunday...

Much drier weather is expected Wednesday through Saturday. The next
chance of afternoon thunderstorms has been delayed until Sunday
(mainly in the NW zones). So, a much needed period to dry and clean
up.

High pressure will be over the region Wednesday into Friday and
Saturday, then shift offshore Saturday night. Mostly clear/mostly
sunny weather is expected. By Sunday, a cold front is expected to
approach from the north bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Lows in the 60s
will be common through Saturday, with 65-70 Sunday. Highs generally
in the 80s (82-88).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF period: Band of heavy rain showers associated with
Tropical Storm Florence will gradually pivot west-northwest through
tonight. This will shift the heaviest rain and impacts from KFAY
to KINT and KGSO by late afternoon and evening. Expect IFR to MVFR
restrictions in these heavy rain showers. At KRDU and KRWI, the rain
showers will be more intermittent, with generally VFR
conditions through the afternoon, outside of the heavy rain showers.

Ceilings are expected to lower LIFR to IFR overnight, with a
continued good chance of showers at all taf sites. As Florence lifts
off to the north, drier air aloft will advect into the area on
Monday. This drier aloft, along with daytime heating should allow
eastern and central TAF sites(KRWI, KFAY, and KRDU) to improve to
VFR conditions during the mid to late morning hours. At KINT and
KGSO, ceilings could remain MVFR until late Monday afternoon.
Tempered daytime heating within the continued moist and muggy
airmass will support the re-development of of scattered showers,
along with thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

Low level wind shear has relaxed with the exception of over the far
southwestern terminals of the forecast area.  Winds diminish even
more during the evening and turn ESE to SE as the the weakening
center of the Florence remnant moves north across the area

Long Term:
A continued moist low-level airmass will favor areas of stratus
and/or fog Monday night/Tuesday morning. A cold front moving
through the area Tuesday afternoon will bring another chance
of showers and storms. Dry VFR conditions will finally return on
Wednesday and will remain predominately VFR through the end of the
week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ024-025-041-042-078-
089.
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for NCZ021>023-038>040-
073>077-083>086-088.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/Badgett
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...CBL
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 16, 7:01 AM EDT, 9 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ021>023-038>040-073>077-171100-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms producing tornadoes are possible late this
afternoon through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

NCZ024-025-041-042-078-171100-
Orange-Durham-Wake-Johnston-Wayne-
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe storms producing tornadoes are possible late this
afternoon through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

NCZ083>086-088-171100-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

NCZ089-171100-
Sampson-
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 379 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

NCZ007>011-026>028-043-171100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-
701 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 16, 3:47 PM EDT, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCZ074-075-084-162015-
Richmond NC-Moore NC-Montgomery NC-
347 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL AFFECT WESTERN MOORE...NORTHEASTERN
RICHMOND AND EASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy rain shower near
Hoffman, or 12 miles northeast of Rockingham, moving north at 55 mph.

Funnel clouds and enhanced wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this fast-moving shower.

Heavy rain and flooding will also be possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Biscoe, Hoffman, Pinebluff, Foxfire, Star, Candor, Norman, Derby,
Seven Lakes and Sandhills Game Land.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this shower. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3543 7992 3549 7963 3505 7945 3504 7946
      3500 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 159DEG 49KT 3506 7959

77
Local storm report, Sep 16, 3:49 PM EDT, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
349 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 ESE VASS              35.20N 79.18W
09/16/2018                   MOORE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CABIN CREEK RD CLOSED.

&&

SMITH
Local storm report, Sep 16, 3:51 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 ESE VASS              35.22N 79.18W
09/16/2018                   MOORE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MCGILL RD CLOSED.

&&

SMITH
Local storm report, Sep 16, 3:53 PM EDT, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE CAMERON           35.30N 79.24W
09/16/2018                   MOORE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ATKINS RD CLOSED FROM FURR RD TO JAMES ST.

&&

SMITH
Special weather statement, Sep 16, 3:55 PM EDT, 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
355 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCZ089-162030-
Sampson NC-
355 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SAMPSON COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy rain shower near
Harrells, or 16 miles south of Clinton, moving northwest at 40 mph.

Funnel clouds and enhanced wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible
with this fast-moving shower.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Harrells, Roseboro, Garland and Salemburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this shower. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3506 7863 3516 7829 3475 7819 3474 7820
      3470 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 156DEG 35KT 3476 7830

77
Local storm report, Sep 16, 4:16 PM EDT, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
416 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW ASHEBORO          35.70N 79.82W
09/16/2018                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LEE ST CLOSED NEAR KIVETT ST.

&&

SMITH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 16, 3:40 AM EDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyRAHSampson6 hr
Sep 16, 8:13 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHAlamance, Chatham, Davidson, Durham, Forsyth, Granville and 9 more6 hr
Sep 16, 8:25 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHWayne50 min
Sep 16, 9:51 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHEdgecombe, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash, Person and 2 more3 hr
Sep 16, 10:16 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHBladen44 min
Sep 16, 10:23 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland37 min
Sep 16, 10:57 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHalifax33 min
Sep 16, 11:09 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHSampson36 min
Sep 16, 11:50 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland25 min
Sep 16, 12:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland32 min
Sep 16, 12:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHLee23 min
Sep 16, 12:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland34 min
Sep 16, 12:46 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHEdgecombe, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash, Person and 2 more59 min
Sep 16, 1:08 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland22 min
Sep 16, 1:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland25 min
Sep 16, 1:29 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHRichmond31 min
Sep 16, 1:33 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHChatham, Davidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph3 hr
Sep 16, 1:50 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHoke25 min
Sep 16, 1:52 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningRAHJohnston, Wayne28 hr
Sep 16, 1:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland33 min
Sep 16, 2:09 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHoke36 min
Sep 16, 2:13 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHAnson, Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Montgomery and 5 more22 hr
Sep 16, 2:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHRichmond25 min
Sep 16, 2:35 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHoke25 min
Sep 16, 2:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHCumberland36 min
Sep 16, 2:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland45 min
Sep 16, 2:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHMoore33 min
Sep 16, 3:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland28 min
Sep 16, 3:22 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHScotland38 min
Sep 16, 3:47 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHMoore28 min
Sep 16, 3:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHSampson35 min
Sep 16, 3:58 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHScotland29 min
Sep 16, 4:29 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHRichmond46 min
Sep 16, 4:32 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHChatham28 min
Sep 16, 4:35 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHNash25 min
Sep 16, 4:37 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland38 min
Sep 16, 4:38 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHarnett37 min
Sep 16, 4:45 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRAHChatham, Lee5 days
Sep 16, 4:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHChatham24 min
Sep 16, 5:04 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHJohnston26 min
Sep 16, 5:06 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHFranklin, Nash39 min
Sep 16, 5:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland44 min
Sep 16, 5:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHMontgomery, Richmond, Stanly56 min
Sep 16, 5:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHVance42 min
Sep 16, 6:07 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland23 min
Sep 16, 6:07 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHFranklin, Granville, Vance, Warren38 min
Sep 16, 6:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHFranklin28 min
Sep 16, 6:19 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHScotland30 min
Sep 16, 6:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHScotland32 min
Sep 16, 6:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHMontgomery23 min
Sep 16, 7:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHMoore23 min
Sep 16, 7:38 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHHoke37 min
Sep 16, 7:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRAHAnson, Montgomery, Stanly49 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.