Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

Relatively active early morning as noted by showers and
thunderstorms continuing over portions of Kiowa, Bent, Powers and
Baca counties. Recent HRRR3 suggests that this precipitation
should be exiting southeastern Colorado around 12Z this morning.

Overall, adequate atmospheric moisture is expected to remain in
place over the forecast district during the next 24 hours,
although latest NAM soundings(centered over the I-25 corridor)
indicate that decreasing precipitable water values should be
realized into the mid-afternoon hours before increasing again
from later this afternoon into tonight.

In addition, PV analysis suggests that distinct upper system
impacting eastern portions of the CWA early this morning will
shift east of the area later this morning, with minimal upper
energy impacting the forecast district from later this morning
into tonight.

Also, 0-6 KM bulk shear values are projected to run some
20% to 50% lower than bulk shears values noted the previous 2
days, helping to limit the potential for more widespread/organized
strong to severe thunderstorms over the forecast district from
later today into tonight, which matches well with SPC's Day 1
Marginal Risk Convective Outlook for the eastern 2/3rds of the
forecast district.

For sensible weather, will depict isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity over the forecast district from this
afternoon into tonight, with some marginally severe storms and
locally heavy rainfall possible.

Recent versions of the HRRR and NAMNST suggest that storms should
develop over higher terrain locations along and west of
Interstate 25 between noon and early afternoon and remain focused
over primarily higher terrain locations into tonight, although
not as intense and/or widespread as the previous 2 days.

Also, in addition to projected low-grade gradient winds(outside of
thunderstorms), expect that maximum and minimum temperatures
should run near climatological averages during the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

For Thursday...Although upper ridging will be building into the
forecast district from the west, adequate atmospheric moisture in
combination with an upper disturbance impacting primarily western
locations(per PV analysis) will allow for another round of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, favoring higher terrain and
western locations. Locally heavy rainfall, capable of producing
flash flooding on recent burn scars will also be possible from
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

From Friday into Monday...It still appears the upper high
pressure will build into the forecast district from Friday into
Monday, allowing the primary focus of more organized shower and
thunderstorms to remain south to west of the majority of the
forecast district from Friday into Monday, with locations such as
the Eastern San Juan Mountains having the highest potential of
realizing locally heavy precipitation, especially from Monday into
Monday night. Elsewhere, have depicted primarily isolated to low
grade scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms,
favoring higher terrain locations during this time-frame.

For Tuesday...next projected influx of monsoonal moisture will
allow for increased precipitation chances, especially over the
western 2/3rds of the CWA.

Finally, continued low-grade gradient winds in combination with
near seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated
over the forecast district during the longer term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Wed Aug 8 2018

KCOS has the highest potential of experiencing showers and
thunderstorms from 19Z to 01Z today, with KPUB and KALS having
the highest potential from 00Z to 06Z, while ALS should continue
to enjoy VFR conditions during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
952 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2018

COZ084-085-081630-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
952 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
1030 AM MDT...

At 951 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ramah, or 28 miles west of Limon, moving south at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah, Yoder and Rush.

LAT...LON 3883 10406 3881 10438 3913 10436 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 353DEG 20KT 3916 10420

etp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1040 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2018

COZ084-085-081730-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
1040 AM MDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
1130 AM MDT...

At 1040 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Calhan to near Peyton. Movement was
southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Ramah, Yoder, Ellicott, Peyton, Schriever AFB, Rush and
Falcon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10405 3877 10405 3875 10453 3913 10472
      3913 10413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 330DEG 17KT 3909 10427 3907 10457

kam