Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Precipitable water (PW) values over the eastern plains today are
and inch and higher, with less than an inch over western areas.
Low level upslope flow over eastern areas will continue into the
evening and could help sustain convection along the eastern mtns.
Models agree and have been consistent in showing widespread tstms
moving acrs the southeast plains through the evening as an upper
level disturbance moves acrs the area. Western area are expected
to mainly have isolated to scattered showers/tstms. NAM and GFS
show the upper disturbance moving out of the area in the late
evening, with decreasing convection acrs the plains from west to
east. However the latest HRRR is showing another line of storms
moving into the northern portions of El Paso county around 06Z
tonight and then continuing southeastward acrs the plains. Not
sure if this will happen, but we'll have to monitor how things
develop.

The main concerns for this evening are the potential for flooding
on burn scars that are over and near the eastern mtns, and the
potential for severe weather over the plains. Storms will have
the potential to produce heavy rain over the mtns and plains this
afternoon and evening, and this will be a risk particularly if it
occurs over burn scars or urban areas. The NAM is forecasting
CAPE values over 2000 J/kg acrs the plains this afternoon and
evening, with bulk shear values of 40-50 kts. SPC has a slight
risk of severe over southeast CO. The main risks are large hail
and damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

For late tonight, the forecast models show some light lingering
precip chances over the plains, and possibly some of the eastern
mtns.

Conditions on Tue are expected to be similar to today. Another upper
disturbance is forecast to move over eastern CO, but it may be
exiting the area by late afternoon or early evening. Forecast models
show storms mostly developing after noon, and then mainly being over
and near the eastern mtns and the Palmer Dvd and El Paso county, and
the Raton Ridge, with storms not moving over the eastern plains
until evening. PW values over eastern areas remain high on Tue and
low level upslope flow continues. Afternoon CAPE are again expected
to be over 2000 J/kg with 40-50 kts of shear, and once again SPC has
eastern areas in a marginal risk for severe weather.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Ensembles spreads are low through the extended period with higher
confidence in the overall forecast. Operational solutions are
also similar through the extended period, with wet conditions
early in the period, with drier conditions late this week into the
weekend.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...high pressure will be centered
over the western states with shortwaves dropping south across
Colorado.  The first will be moving southeast across Eastern
Colorado Tuesday night.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing, initially along the Eastern Mountains, spreading east across
the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Flash flooding
will remain a threat, especially on area burn scars.  There is also
a small severe threat across the Plains with large hail and strong
winds being the primary threats.  On Wednesday, expect another round
of heavy rainfall due to showers and thunderstorms.  Outflow from
the previous nights convection will turn flow upslope easterly
across the Plains.  This will help convection develop over the
Eastern Mountains, and spread southeast through the evening hours. A
few strong to severe storms are possible across the Eastern Plains
during the evening hours.  Flash flooding will remain a threat on
area burn scars and areas that see heavier rainfall Tuesday.

Thursday through Monday...high pressure will shift northeast through
early next week forcing flow across the region northeasterly.  Drier
air will also work across the area.  Heavier showers and
thunderstorms will remain possible over the mountains on Thursday.
As we move into Friday into Monday, shower and thunderstorm activity
will become more isolated to scattered in nature.  They will also
become more diurnally and terrain driven.  Given the northeasterly
flow aloft, the thunderstorm activity will shift southwest into New
Mexico during the evening to overnight hours.

Temperatures are expected to remain warm across the region.
Afternoon  highs will generally be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, with
the warmest conditions beyond Thursday.  Overnight lows will
continue to be mild with upper 50s to mid 60s. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018

There will be a good chance for showers and thunderstorms at KCOS
and KPUB thru at least early this evening. Heavy rain could
reduce the visibility. Late tonight there could also be some low
clouds at KCOS and KPUB creating MVFR conditions. KALS is
expected to have VFR conditions thru the next 24 hrs, however
easterly low level winds tonight, could bring some moisture to the
area and the potential for some low clouds late tonight and early
Tue. Another round of thunderstorms is expected Tue afternoon and
evening at KPUB and KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>075-
079>081-087-088.

&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1103 AM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-071715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1103 AM MDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the southeast mountains and plains this afternoon and evening.
Some storms will produce moderate to heavy rainfall rates at
times, and could present a flash flood risk for area burn scars.

As storms track east across the plains, a few of the storms may
become severe, producing damaging wind gusts around 60 mph, one
inch diameter or larger hail, and frequent cloud to ground
lightning. The possibility of a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out. Thunderstorm activity is expected to persist across the
plains into the late night hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible again Tuesday and
Wednesday across the southeast mountains and plains. A few severe
thunderstorms will be possible both days, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary storm threats. The flash flood risk
will be elevated both days, particularly for burn scars in the
southeast mountains including, Spring, Junkins, Hayden Pass, and
Waldo.

Thunderstorms will become more isolated in coverage for Thursday
through the weekend, with a drying trend expected through the
period. Thunderstorms will be more likely to stay confined to the
mountain areas, with lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and brief
heavy rainfall being the primary storm risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across the southeastern
mountains and plains.

28/28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
633 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GREEN MOUNTAIN FALLS    38.94N 105.02W
08/06/2018  M0.70 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            AFTERNOON RAINFALL.

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
654 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             8 S FOUNTAIN            38.57N 104.71W
08/06/2018  M1.00 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
703 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

COZ087-088-070130-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
703 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

At 703 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Aguilar, or 26 miles north of Trinidad, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano and north central Las Animas Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3753 10467 3765 10459 3759 10425 3737 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 296DEG 23KT 3754 10456

BL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
741 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             6 E MODEL               37.34N 104.12W
08/06/2018  E1.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   PUBLIC

&&

RMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
751 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

COZ074-088-070215-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
751 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

At 751 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Aguilar, or 16 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving southeast at 20
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Aguilar, Hoehne and Gulnare.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3735 10479 3743 10471 3731 10425 3709 10444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 303DEG 17KT 3737 10467

hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
801 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

COZ094-070230-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
801 PM MDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 801 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Thatcher, or 36 miles southwest of La Junta, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Las
Animas County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3749 10398 3762 10384 3747 10340 3723 10372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 312DEG 22KT 3750 10384

BL