Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

.Currently...moisture has been slower to mix out on the plains
today.  Convection tried to fire over the southeast mountains, but
moisture was too shallow and air aloft was too dry to support deeper
convection.  Some weak storms are over Teller County and along the
Raton Ridge.

.Tonight...Fine resolution models continue to show some weak storms
moving eastward along the Palmer Divide and along the New Mexico
border during the evening.  ESRL experimental HRRR hints at strong
storms over Kiowa County later in the evening.  This is plausible as
moisture has been slow to mix out on the plains and southeast winds
will continue into the evening.  Deeper cloud have limited heating
over Baca County which should limit instability in the southeast
corner of the state. Any storms should move into Kansas by midnight.
Do not see a large MCS developing, like what developed last night,
to provide a strong westward push to the low level moisture.

.Friday...Dry southwest flow aloft continues.  Low levels on the
plains will be drier than Thursday.  Winds will stay below red flag
criteria, but humidities will mostly be below 15 percent.  There may
be enough low level moisture for some isolated stronger storms near
the Kansas border, and SPC has marginal risk for the Kansas border
region. Suspect main threats will be gusty winds with drier lower
levels.  A stray storm could develop over the eastern mountains, but
moisture will be limited. --PGW---

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Chief longer term meteorological issues continue to be
temperatures, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions at times and pops.

Latest longer term PV/Precipitable water analysis, forecast
model soundings and computer simulations suggest that upper
ridging will remain anchored centered over/near New Mexico/west
Texas during the balance of the longer term with increasing
precipitation potential beginning Tuesday and continuing into
next week as deeper atmospheric moisture returns/develops over
the majority of the CWA.

From Friday evening into Monday, unseasonably warm temperatures in
combination with generally dry conditions(outside of isolated
thunderstorms) are are anticipated over the forecast district in
advance of the potential for cooler temperatures as well as
increased pops beginning Tuesday.

Gradient winds are still projected to increase from Sunday into
Monday evening, which will increase the fire weather threat
Sunday. In addition, elevated/localized fire weather conditions
will also be possible Saturday and Monday.

Finally, above to well-above seasonal early to mid-June
temperatures(as evidenced by predicted maximum temperatures
climbing into the 90s and even challenging the century mark at
times over select eastern locations) are expected to continue over
southern Colorado into Monday, in advance of somewhat cooler
temperatures developing by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

VFR at all TAF sites.  Isolated storms north of KCOS could brief
produce gusty outflow winds at KCOS.  Chances for thunder and wind
gusts are too low to insert into TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-081745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1143 AM MDT Thu Jun 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the Palmer Divide and near
the Kansas border late this afternoon and this evening, with gusty
winds to 50 mph and lightning the main storm hazards. One or two
storms near the Kansas border may become severe, with wind gusts
over 60 mph and hail up to quarter size possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains once
again Friday afternoon, with the main weather hazards with any
thunderstorm that develops being gusty winds to 50 mph and
lightning. There also remains the potential for a few strong to
severe storms across the Southeast Plains Friday afternoon and
evening, with gusty winds up 60 mph, hail up to quarter size and
lightning the main storm threats. The greatest threat for severe
storms will be near the Kansas border.

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible
across Southeast Colorado on Saturday, and again early next week,
with main hazards being gusty winds to 50 mph and lightning.

Increasing southwest flow aloft this weekend will lead to
increasing fire danger across western portions of the area on
Friday and Saturday, and across all of South Central and
Southeast Colorado on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible late this afternoon and this evening along the Palmer
Divide and over the far southeast plains near the Kansas border.

06/77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
340 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

COZ081-082-084-085-072230-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
340 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TELLER AND
NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manitou Springs, or near Colorado Springs, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Monument, Air Force Academy, Manitou Springs, Green
Mountain Falls, Crystola, Chipita Park, Gleneagle, Peterson AFB,
Cimarron Hills, Cascade and Stratmoor.

LAT...LON 3878 10501 3895 10503 3903 10496 3909 10476
      3879 10458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 263DEG 20KT 3887 10493

Skelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

COZ084-085-072345-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
510 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 510 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Schriever AFB, or 21 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving east at
20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Schriever AFB and Ellicott.

LAT...LON 3865 10449 3867 10454 3880 10456 3889 10428
      3866 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 254DEG 15KT 3873 10445

Skelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
533 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

COZ085-086-080000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
533 PM MDT THU JUN 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO AND NORTH
CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 533 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pinon, or 15 miles northwest of Pueblo, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fountain, Pinon and Pueblo West.

LAT...LON 3833 10480 3853 10485 3861 10464 3840 10452
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 254DEG 14KT 3848 10473

Skelly

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