Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Pueblo, CO

727 
WWUS55 KPUB 082058
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
258 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

COC009-071-082115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-180608T2115Z/
Baca CO-Las Animas CO-
258 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...

At 258 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 15 miles northwest
of Kenton, or 39 miles southwest of Springfield, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Baca and southeastern Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 10327 3724 10297 3700 10279 3700 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 293DEG 20KT 3705 10318 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Skelly

613 
WWUS55 KPUB 082108
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

COC009-071-082115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-180608T2115Z/
Baca CO-Las Animas CO-
308 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...

At 307 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles northwest
of Kenton, or 37 miles southwest of Springfield, moving east at 25 
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Baca and southeastern Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 10323 3717 10299 3700 10293 3700 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 278DEG 23KT 3704 10311 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Skelly

382 
WWUS55 KPUB 082115
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
315 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

COC009-071-082125-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-180608T2115Z/
Baca CO-Las Animas CO-
315 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3712 10323 3717 10299 3700 10293 3700 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 254DEG 19KT 3705 10306 

$$

Skelly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Upper high still over TX today, with ridge extending northward
through the High Plains. SW flow aloft will continue across CO, with
drier air spreading eastward toward the KS border by late afternoon,
as MCS outflows will be absent today. Tsra chances look very low
today, with best chance for storms near the KS border, especially
over Baca county, where moisture/instability will linger through the
afternoon. If storms develop, could see some severe wind gusts again
with rather dry subcloud layers. With deep mixing, winds will become
gusty this afternoon over the mountains and interior valleys, and
while a few spots across the San Luis Valley could briefly reach
critical fire thresholds, lack of stronger winds aloft suggests
duration/extent of strongest winds will be too brief/spotty to
warrant a highlight. Given slight rise in heights, plus lack of
clouds and absent MCS outflows, expect max temps to rise a few degf
versus Thursdays levels, with a few spots in the lower Arkansas
Valley approaching 100f by late day. Overnight, convection shifts
eastward out of the state by midnight, with weak slosh of low level
moisture back toward I-25 by Sat morning. Min temp grid will
continue to depict a wide range overnight, with sheltered mountain
valleys falling into the 30s due to dry air and clear skies, while
portions of the plains stay in the moist air mass and only drop into
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 433 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

Saturday through Sunday...Models are in excellent agreement
during this period. The upper level ridge that has been dominating
southern Colorado weather begins to break down as a trough quickly
progresses through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and into the
Northern Rockies by Sunday. The persisting ridge means the forecast
area will remain hot, with highs in th mid 90s to around 100 across
the plains and mid 80s in the high valleys. Deep vertical mixing
with increasing dry downslope southwest flow will keep most of the
forecast area dry through this period with low surface RH.
Additionally, a deepening lee trough each day centered over central-
to-northeast Colorado will further promote west/southwest surface
flow and help keep the dryline along or east of the Colorado Kansas
border. The best chance for precip these days will only be very
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms over the mountains and far
southeast plains. Surface RH values will remain below critical fire
weather levels each day across much of the forecast area. Saturday,
surface wind speeds will not reach critical levels, negating the
need for fire weather highlights. However, brief periods of low-end
critical fire weather conditions may occur in areas west of the I-25
corridor. On Sunday, with increasing southwest flow aloft, stronger
surface winds will develop across southern Colorado, mainly west of
the I-25 corridor, where more prolonged low-end critical fire
weather conditions appear likely during the afternoon.

Monday...Models remain in agreement during this period. The northern
Rockies upper-level trough will send a dry surface cold front south
down the eastern Colorado plains early Monday. This will drop
temperatures only slightly across the plains where highs are
forecast to be around 90, with mid 80s still expected across the
high valleys. The forecast area will remain dry as northerly flow
behind the front slowly becomes easterly, and return flow doesn't
begin until late. Although surface RH will still be low across most
of the forecast area, winds will be weak enough to dampen the fire
weather threat.

Tuesday through Thursday...Model solutions diverge somewhat during
this period. Broad high pressure builds south of Colorado, with a
slightly stronger ridge in the ECMWF vs the GFS. The GFS ensemble
begins to show just marginal spread developing during this period as
well. Low level easterly flow will funnel high moisture air into the
forecast area, with TPW exceeding 1" across the plains each day, and
0.5" across the high terrain (0.75" by Thursday). While the easterly
upslope flow and abundance of atmospheric moisture are certainly
favorable for precip development across the plains, the question of
large-scale forcing will help determine coverage. With the weaker
ridge in the GFS solution, energy advances over Colorado in slightly
disturbed west/southwest flow. This leads to periods of widespread
precipitation starting late Tuesday evening through Thursday
evening. The mountains see their precip chances increase Wednesday
evening. The stronger ridge in the ECMWF keeps precip chances more
limited until Thursday. Given the abundance of moisture, easterly
low-level flow, and likely at least diurnal thunderstorms, trended
PoPs more toward GFS solution. The fire weather threat should remain
below critical levels given higher surface RH and below threshold
winds. Temperatures across the plains are forecast to remain in the
low 90s during this period. Line

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

VFR at all TAF sites. A very dry airmass is over most of the
region so chances for any thunderstorms are very low, except near
the Kansas border.

--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1233 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-091845-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1233 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Kansas border late this
afternoon and this evening, with gusty winds to 50 mph and lightning
the main storm hazards. One or two storms may become severe, with
wind gusts over 60 mph and hail up to quarter size possible. The
best chances for strong to severe storms will be in Baca County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains
and far southeast plains Saturday and Sunday in the afternoon and
early evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday through Thursday. The main hazards with storms
during this period are expected to be lightning, hail to around
dime size, and wind gusts to 50 mph.

Increasing southwest flow aloft this weekend will lead to
heightened fire danger across much of the forecast area on
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible late this afternoon and this evening over the far southeast
plains near the Kansas border.

06/77