Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
120 PM MDT Wed Aug 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Main concern tonight will be the continuation of
convection south and east of Interstate 15 and 84. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in effect for our southeastern zones until 9
PM this evening. An upper low will slowly move from central Idaho
into western Montana tonight while a shortwave pivots around into
southeast Idaho. The area ahead of the shortwave will be a prime
area for convective initiation. Models show that shortwave and
upper low moving east after midnight. Fair weather is expected
tomorrow with transient ridging pushing through Idaho. Friday may
be breezy as the next upper trough makes its way into the area.
GFS and NAM both keep things dry, while the ECMWF hints at some
light precip Friday afternoon and evening. Both models continue to
show an amplification of upper troughing over the PAC NW this
weekend and into early next week. Have opted to continue with a
GFS/EC ensemble blend for PoPs Sunday through Wednesday. Guidance
is bringing in 70 degree highs to the Snake Plain for Monday and
Tuesday next week. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...More showers and thunderstorms are likely through this
evening. Right now, the most affected TAF sites should be KPIH, KIDA
and KDIJ. We do have -SHRA or -TSRA on station at these airports.
We have VCTS for KSUN and KBYI since the chance is lower for on
station development. We could easily see winds around 40-50kts with
storms, if not higher as well as some hail.  Expect reduced ceilings
and visibility due to heavier rainfall. We should be all clear after
midnight and Thursday. Keyes

 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...We've already seen showers and thunderstorms today,
with more expected into this evening. Wetting rain are possible
especially with stronger storms. We've seen amounts already well
over 0.20 inches in several instances this morning. Wind gusts over
40 mph are still likely with most storms, with gusts of 60 mph or
higher across portions of Zones 410, 411 and 413. Hail may also be a
factor for field crews to contend with off and on. The RED FLAG
WARNINGS for 476 and 413 remain in effect, and hopefully we don't
have to do last minute expansions or extensions based on how things
play in the next few hours. We dry out overall tomorrow through
Sunday morning. There will be some pockets of poor overnight
recovery across portions of the central mountains and southern
highlands, but nothing like we saw under the persistent ridge in
recent weeks. The main concern will be gusty winds and low afternoon
humidity. We are seeing a couple of lows skirt by to the north
Friday and Saturday. There MIGHT be a storm or two along the Montana
border Friday, but that is a VERY LOW chance. Otherwise, Friday is
likely bringing gusts of 25-40mph winds over most of central and
eastern Idaho. With RHs dropping down again, we will likely see
critical or borderline critical over most of it not all fire zones
in the afternoon and evening hours. There is some wiggle room in
terms of speeds and humidity numbers, but even if winds come down
some or RH ends up a bit higher there will be smaller pockets of
critical conditions developing. Saturday will see strong gusts over
the central mountains and Upper Snake Plain/Highlands
(410/411/475/476) so those areas could see another round of critical
fire conditions play out. Early next week still looks much, much
cooler and showery. Highs for lower elevations look to only be in
the mid 60s to mid 70s, with 40s and 50s in the mountains. Keyes

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...Area wildfires continue to make for poor air
quality, though Pocatello/Chubbuck has noted slight improvements
over yesterday. The Burley and Shoshone areas, as well as Idaho Falls,
Rexburg, and Island Park have noted diminishing air quality, and
advisories have been put in place for those areas today. The advisory
for the Pocatello/Chubbuck area has also been extended through
tomorrow. Hinsberger

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413-476.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
217 PM MDT WED AUG 22 2018

IDZ052-067>069-222100-
Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-Beaverhead/Lemhi Highlands ID-
Lost River Range ID-Lost River Valleys ID-
217 PM MDT WED AUG 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN BUTTE AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northwest of Northwest Inl or 27 miles east of Mackay, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lone Pine, Edie School and Small.

LAT...LON 4448 11265 4411 11218 4387 11315 4405 11328
      4424 11301 4423 11282 4437 11281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 241DEG 32KT 4401 11307

Hinsberger